RenMac

RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.

RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data,  Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-Bag

RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.

RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.

RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump’s cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.

RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump’s views on territorial control over Greenland.

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.

RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.

RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.

RenMac discusses: Latest developments with Trump appointments The horserace for Treasury secretary Ongoing weakness in labor demand Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish Impact of political appointments on specific sectors

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss: Expectations between now and election Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery The big losers Path of unified government Inflation expectations Cyclical trade and market’s message Labor market conditions Powell’s future Importance of personnel to discern direction forward

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.

RenMac discusses: The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election.  The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate credit Bitcoin Commercial Hedger positi...

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.