Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level ever recorded, and Lucas and Luna break down what that actually signals for the economy. They parse the Michigan survey's sub-components — personal finances, buying conditions for durables, one-year and five-year inflation expectations — and explain why sentiment has disconnected from hard data like the S&P 500's recent rally and a still-tight labor mar...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna dive into the recent uninversion of the yield curve — a development that historically signals the final innings of a business cycle, not the all-clear. As of May 23, 2026, the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries sits at 43 basis points, up from deeply inverted territory just months ago. But does this mean recession risk is fading? Or is i...

Consumer sentiment in the US hit a fresh record low in May 2026, according to the latest University of Michigan survey. The index fell to 55.8, below the prior pandemic-era trough, driven by inflation fears tied to geopolitical tensions and rising food and energy costs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine what this collapse in sentiment actually means for the economy. Is it a reliable recessio...

This week on Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna tackle a surprising finding from a new CNBC report: the AI economy may not be destroying blue-collar jobs, it's actually boosting them. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and job openings declining, the narrative of AI replacing workers is shifting. Lucas explains how AI investments are driving demand for physical infrastructure—data centers, grid upgra...

Lucas and Luna explore the concept of 'bond vigilantes'—investors who force interest rates higher by selling bonds—and why economist Ed Yardeni is predicting a Federal Reserve rate hike in July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.67% and the 30-year at 5.18%, the bond market is signaling concern about fiscal deficits and inflation. Lucas explains how the vigilante dynamic works, using the 2...

Lucas and Luna dig into a growing disconnect in the U.S. economy: the unemployment rate sits at a low 4.3 percent, yet job openings are falling and initial jobless claims just ticked up to 211,000. They examine what the JOLTS data and weekly claims signal about the labor market's real temperature, how the quits rate and wage growth paint a muddier picture, and why even a 'soft landing' scenario le...

After two years of inversion, the yield curve has flattened back to positive territory. Lucas and Luna break down what the 10-year minus 2-year spread of 0.54 percent means for the economy, whether a recession has been cancelled or merely postponed, and why the bond market might be giving us the wrong signal in a post-AI-boom world. They reference the incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the projected...