Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment surging, Lucas and Luna dig into why the share of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more is hitting levels that historically preceded recessions. They examine how the current 4.3% unemployment rate masks a structural shift in the labor market, pulling data from JOLTS, initial jobless claims, and the latest ADP report. The hosts debat...

While job openings surged to 7.6 million in April—the highest in nearly two years—long-term unemployment is quietly rising. Lucas and Luna dig into the Bureau of Labor Statistics data to show why the share of jobless workers out of work for 27 weeks or more is approaching levels that historically precede recessions. They explore how skills erosion, employer screening algorithms, and the 'double sc...

In Episode 30 of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine a slow-moving but historically reliable recession indicator: the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS. They dig into why tightening bank lending standards — not just consumer credit, but commercial and industrial loans — have preceded every U.S. recession since the 1980s. With the April 2026 SLOOS showing banks tightening standards a...

Episode 29 of Recession Watch with Fexingo dives into the VIX term structure — a recession indicator that gets less attention than the yield curve but has a strong track record. Lucas and Luna examine why the VIX at 16.31 and the VVIX at 91.23 are telling different stories about market fear, how the contango in VIX futures suggests investors see near-term calm but longer-term risk, and what this s...

Episode 28 of Recession Watch with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into the Cass Freight Index, which just hit its lowest reading since the pandemic recovery began in 2021. While job openings surged and the VIX is calm, trucking volumes have declined for three straight months. The hosts explore why freight is a leading indicator, how the Iran war energy costs are squeezing logistics margins, and what...

New data shows job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for the recession debate. Is a hot labor market the final piece for a soft landing, or does it just delay the inevitable downturn? They examine the quality of those openings, the disconnect with consumer confidence, and what the Fed might do next. Plus, how the Iran wa...

Lucas and Luna examine a recession signal that rarely makes headlines: the rapid buildup of non-financial corporate cash reserves. With S&P 500 companies sitting on record liquidity, they ask whether this is a sign of strength or a quiet warning that management teams see trouble ahead. Drawing on Federal Reserve data showing cash as a share of total assets rising above 12 percent, they discuss why...

For most of 2025 and into 2026, the US economy has been running a quiet but growing divergence: average hourly earnings are rising at around 4 percent annually, while productivity growth has stalled near 1 percent. In Episode 25 of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna break down why that mismatch — unit labor costs climbing faster than output per hour — has historically been one of the most reliable le...

Lucas and Luna break down why corporate capital expenditure plans are flashing a subtle recession warning that most GDP-based models miss. With the latest data showing spending on equipment and structures growing at its slowest pace in three years outside of a pandemic or financial crisis, the hosts examine what this means for productivity, earnings, and the labor market. Lucas explains the link b...

The labor market has been a bright spot, but JOLTS data tells a different story. Lucas and Luna examine why job openings have fallen to 6.9 million, the lowest since early 2021, despite low unemployment. They discuss what the Beveridge curve reveals about the economy's trajectory, how the Fed is interpreting this data, and whether the job market is normalizing or softening toward recession. With u...

Lucas and Luna dig into the 'double scar' hypothesis—how the inflation trauma of 2021-2023 and the current Iran war energy shock are combining to permanently alter consumer behavior. With household gas costs up $450 per year and core inflation still at 3.3%, they explore whether the consumer is fundamentally changed, not just temporarily cautious. Drawing on the latest PCE data and Fed commentary...

Lucas and Luna examine how the 'double scar' from past inflation and ongoing geopolitical shocks is altering consumer behavior in 2026. With core PCE inflation at 3.3% and an extra $450 per household from Iran war energy costs, they drill into why consumer sentiment is at a record low even as job growth remains solid. They explore the disconnect between 'vibecession' data and hard spending pattern...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran war is quietly reshaping consumer confidence and recession risk. They break down the $450 average annual hit to U.S. households from higher energy costs, what Fed officials are saying about inflation persistence, and why consumer sentiment data may be underestimating the real drag. With core inflation stuck at 3.3% and the VIX...

Episode 19 of Recession Watch with Fexingo examines how the tariffs and trade disruptions from the mid-2020s continue to reshape global supply chains, with lasting effects on inflation, corporate margins, and recession risk. Lucas and Luna dig into the concept of 'reshoring inertia' — why companies that moved production back to the U.S. or diversified into Vietnam and Mexico aren't reversing cours...

Episode 18 of Recession Watch tackles the $11 trillion commercial real estate market, where $2.1 trillion in loans come due by 2028. Lucas and Luna break down why office vacancy rates near 20% in major cities haven't caused a systemic collapse yet, but regional banks—holding 40% of CRE debt—could change that. They examine the difference between the 2008 housing crisis and today's CRE stress, the r...

Lucas and Luna dig into a recession signal that doesn't get enough airtime: the housing market. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still above 7% and homebuilder sentiment at its lowest since 2023, they explore how housing leads the economy into downturns — and why this time might be different. Lucas breaks down the link between housing starts, consumer confidence, and the Fed's rate dilemma, an...

Lucas and Luna explore a blind spot in recession forecasting: small business cash flow. While headline indicators like GDP growth and unemployment look solid, data from payment processors and invoice platforms tells a different story. They discuss why small firms are the canary in the coalmine, how late payments are piling up even as big company earnings hold up, and why the Fed's focus on big-tic...

Lucas and Luna dig into the corporate bond market, where spreads have widened 40 basis points since March despite stocks hitting new highs. They explain why high-grade and high-yield spreads are diverging, what that says about credit market stress, and how this signal has historically preceded recessions by 6 to 12 months. With the S&P 500 above 7,500 and small caps rallying, the bond market is te...

The yield curve has not only uninverted — it's steepening sharply, with the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields now at 49 basis points, the widest since 2022. Lucas and Luna break down what this steepening means for the recession debate, using the latest data: the S&P 500 at 7,519, small caps up 6.3% in a week, and real GDP growth back to 2%. They explain why a steepening curve c...

The S&P 500 is up 2.1% in a week, but the Russell 2000 has surged 6% — the biggest small-cap outperformance since early 2025. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for recession models. With consumer sentiment at a record low and the yield curve barely positive, why are risk assets rotating into the most economically sensitive names? The hosts drill into the mechanics of a 'risk-on' sig...

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran conflict is injecting a war risk premium into economic forecasts, making every recession model less reliable. They discuss the spike in oil prices, the consumer sentiment record low, and the VIX structure. Lucas explains why the Fed now faces a stagflation dilemma, and Luna notes the gap between headline GDP growth and consume...

Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran conflict is injecting a geopolitical risk premium into oil markets, pushing prices higher even as the broader economy shows mixed signals. With the S&P 500 near all-time highs at 7,473 and the VIX low at 16.59, markets seem calm — but crude tells a different story. Consumer sentiment hit a record low in May, partially due to energy price fears. The hosts discuss...

Lucas and Luna dig into a recession signal that doesn't appear on any central bank dashboard: consumer debt. With total household debt crossing $20 trillion for the first time in early 2026, and credit card delinquencies rising above pre-pandemic levels, they explain why this slow-moving number matters more than the VIX or the yield curve right now. They walk through the latest Federal Reserve dat...

Everyone is fixated on consumer sentiment and the yield curve, but Lucas and Luna argue that wage growth — specifically average hourly earnings — might be telling a more nuanced story about where the economy actually stands. Using the latest data from April 2026, they unpack why earnings rose to $37.40 an hour even as job openings fell to 6.9 million, and what that tension means for corporate marg...

Consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low in May 2026, even as the stock market sits near record highs and unemployment is low. Lucas and Luna dig into this disconnect, breaking down what's really driving Americans' pessimism — persistent inflation, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict, and the psychological toll of higher prices on everyday goods. They look at how sentiment data correlate...