Radar Podcast

Free Access to our charting platform: https://market-radar.com/terminal/charts The AI trade just blew up. We go through why. The compute shortage was never the problem. Frontier labs hit a wall and hid behind it. Why there is no TACO this time. Why this is not the bottom and what the real signal is. Inflation and growth falling together. Cloudflare versus CoreWeave and the Micron memory trap. Plus...

We are four months into risk off and the AI trade is finally cracking. Google, Amazon and Intel got hit on CapEx. Apple made new highs. That tells you where the damage is. We cover why risk off is not a crash call, what the growth index is actually showing, how stagflation regimes tend to resolve, and why front running the system is the one rule we never break. Access our tools at www.market-radar...

This week we cover the semiconductor selloff and why it does not mean the AI build-out is over. We explain why inference matters more than training. We look at the rotation into defensives, dip buying in a risk-off regime, leveraged ETFs, crude and diesel, cybersecurity, and the Anthropic IPO. Q&A is in the Discord. Free account at www.market-radar.com. Episode 237

Markets rolled over this week on CPI and PPI. Our inflation index is rising fast. Yields spiked toward 5% then snapped back in two days. We cover why the bond selloff was momentum, not growth. We go deep on the AI trade: CoreWeave, frontier labs versus inference, why benchmarks don't matter, and who wins long term. Plus the tech rotation, TLT, healthcare, and why we aren't buying this dip....

Bitcoin is giving back its gains and we are still not positioned. We cover why the regime filter keeps us out and why chop is the bigger risk than a crash. We get into long end yields rising on risk premium, not growth, and the debasement trade that never held. Then the OpenAI miss, circular financing, frontier labs stalling, the Anthropic IPO, and why software is rebounding. Learn More: www.marke...

We break down why the back end of the crude curve is still pricing an Iran premium while the front month fades, and why diesel is the energy market to watch. We explain what is actually driving the bond selloff and why rising yields are not telling you growth is booming. We close on Bitcoin, the regime, and the post midterm Iran risk. Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 234

The 10 year yield continues to breakout and the Nasdaq is still near its highs. We walk through why rates and crude are not binding the economy yet, why yields may just be catching up to what stocks already priced in Q2, and what has to break before that changes. Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 233

The Fed hiked into an energy shock this week and we think the bond market forced their hand. We break down why this move is oil driven, not growth driven, why the 5% ceiling on the 10 year does not hold in stagflation, and why risk assets stay capped until Iran gets resolved. Learn More: www.market-radar.com

Yields are ripping while growth flatlines, and that combination is restrictive, not bullish. We break down why rates above 4.75% stop helping banks, what the regime map says comes after stagflation, and why the bond market just blew out the buyback program. Plus: Bitcoin's failed breakout, the output gap problem, and why chop is the biggest risk right now. Learn More: www.market-radar.com

Bitcoin is squeezing shorts and we explain what we need to see before taking our leveraged long. We look at rates pressing the 4.75 ceiling into NFP, housing and homebuilders, and whether the consumer is actually cooked. We close on open source AI catching up to frontier models and what that means for software, inference, and labor. Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We cover the rotation out of AI hardware into software, the gold versus Bitcoin trade, what Bitcoin still needs before we buy it, and why the debasement trade is the wrong frame. Plus Warsh into Jackson Hole and the Druckenmiller fracture. Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 229

Bitcoin surged this week on a record wave of short liquidations, and gold broke out alongside it, but equities never confirmed the move. We explain why this looks like a short squeeze rather than the start of a real trend, and why 4.75% on the 10 year is the level that decides whether the debasement trade holds. We also get into stagflation, the state of the consumer, and Warsh heading into Jackso...

We break down why the S&P is at record highs while the AI names lag, and why leadership is rotating from semis into software. We cover the in line CPI print, collapsing hike odds, and what Warsh is doing to the curve. We are still risk off, and we get into the consumer, the CapEx boom, and where AI actually makes money. Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 227

The S&P printed an all-time high on an Iran headline that's fallen through every other time it's shown up, semis are still 15% off their highs, and until our system flips we think this is a fake out. We lay out why the AI CapEx trade already peaked, and why the buyback-to-revenue switch that funded the entire move only gets flipped once. Then we get into real yields back at 2023 highs,...

We sold all of our tech on July 14 and we have not bought it back. The AI CapEx trade that carried the Nasdaq is fractured, Leopold got liquidated, and the vibes that took SanDisk to 2,400 are not healing in a straight line. We break down why this is not a dip buying environment, why rates are the most underrated risk on the board, and what has to align before we put leverage back on. Learn More:...

We went full risk off on the 14th, and the worst case scenario we've been warning about is now playing out: inflation impulses re-accelerating on the Hormuz escalation, growth impulses dead in the water, and a 63% probability of shifting from stagflation into deflation. We break down why the CapEx receivers like Micron are the market's only support beam, why consumer discretionary rolling...

We break down whether this is a market crash or just a rotation as capital flees semis and the AI CapEx trade into financials, healthcare, and utilities. Our regime model has flipped to stagflation, and we explain why we stay positioned for the regime we're in even though expansion is still our base case. The consumer isn't showing up, inflation impulses won't fall, and we walk through...

The market is at an inflection point, equities have not gone anywhere since inflation risks have come back on the table. We dive into the risks of an inflation resurgeance and the weak consumer. Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We break down why the inflation scare is already fading, with the 4.2% print looking transitory off tariffs and Iran rather than real consumer demand. Then we get into the two-economy split, the price insensitive hyperscalers bidding up memory while Micron has record margins and the consumer gets crushed. Learn More: www.market-radar.com

We break down Warsh's first FOMC presser and what less Fed forward guidance means for markets, then our latest Ledger post: why disinflation is the bull case, the case for an expansion regime, and how the weak consumer finally rotates in. Learn More: www.market-radar.comEpisode 220

In this episode we break down the SpaceX IPO and why we think a $1.7 trillion valuation sets up a retail trap rather than the deal everyone is chasing, including the wave of insider divesting and our case for a Tesla merger down the road. We also work through the Iran energy shock, a 4.2% CPI print driven almost entirely by oil, and whether this inflation is structural or transitory while the Fed...

We discuss Bitcoin's decline and what it would actually take for us to retire Astraeus, making the case that this is a weak consumer story tied to who sits inside the AI CapEx flywheel rather than a reason to abandon the model, and we cover the labor market, the personal savings rate, and the quantum overhang along the way. We close on the SpaceX IPO, breaking down the low float dynamics, the...

This week we dig into the enterprise stimulus flywheel carrying the market, the loop of AI capex and private capital that has memory names like Micron printing record income while the consumer never sees a dollar of it. We also break down where the regime is drifting as growth turns up and inflation rolls over, and why we think a Fed hike into an energy-driven CPI pop would be the wrong call. Lear...

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is set to impact the stock market significantly, especially with its potential for Nasdaq 100 inclusion. This move, spearheaded by Elon Musk, requires investors to understand the immediate implications for passive flows. This financial event is a sensitive point amidst current AI market hype, highlighting the importance of understanding innovation in today's financial m...

We break down the AI bubble debate and why the dot-com comparison misses how this cycle could shift from semis to real-world applications and robotics. Bitcoin is consolidating above MidVAMP and Momo, but we're sitting on hands until the trend flips bullish and completes the trifecta with tech, industrials, and oil. Growth is falling faster than inflation, putting us close to guarded inflation...