Predictive History

Professor Jiang

Society EN ↓ 158 episodes

Audio format of Predictive History youtube videos by Professor Jiang XueqinGame Theory explores the future of global politics through the lens of data, geography, and historical patterns. Using minimalist map animations and strategic analysis, the channel breaks down complex geopolitical conflicts, military strategies, and resource competition to project where the world is heading next.

Author

Predictive History

Category

Society

Podcast website

podcasters.spotify.com

Latest episode

Jun 28, 2026

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Episodes

Who Killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang examines if Iran President Ebrahim Raisi's death was an accident or an assassination: On May 19, Iran President Raisi's helicopter crashed into the mountains, killing all nine on board. Most experts believe it was a weather-related accident. There are skeptics who believed that powerful forces within Iran stood to gain from Raisi's death. Raisi was expected to become th...

The Iran Trap 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang explains that an American invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic mistake:If Trump were to win a second term, he would likely contemplate invading Iran. While an initial invasion would seem successful, American forces would quickly become bogged down in Iran's mountainous terrain. The American invasion would be similar to Athens' invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE, as described...

Putin's War for the Soul of Russia 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang explains why Putin is preparing to mobilize Russian society for total war:Putin's favorite philosopher Aleksandr Dugin believes that Russia and the West are fighting Samuel Huntington's War of Civilizations in Ukraine. What does he mean by this? In the late eighties, Francis Fukuyama published his "End of History?" essay, which argued that liberal democracy and co...

Putin's Strategic Imagination 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang explains Putin's strategic genius:In February 2022 Putin invaded Ukraine. At first, the war did not go well, and the United States had a three-point plan to defeat Putin:1.) Equip Ukraine to defeat the Russian army.2.) Sanction Russia, and cause it to economically implode.3.) Isolate Russia, and turn it into a pariah state. Today, we recognize that this strategy has failed, and...

The Second American Civil War 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang explores how and why America would fight a second Civil War:Right now, America is suffering three trends that make civil war more and more likely: a.) Increasing political polarization driven by the culture wars and inequality. b.) Breakdown of the narratives that bind America, especially the American Dream and liberalism. c.) Growing distrust of America's national institutions...

Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future) 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang Xueqin concludes his Geo-Strategy course by discussing how to use AI to chart a better future for humanity:In his Foundation series, Isaac Asimov introduces the science of psychohistory. Is it really possible to predict the future by mathematically modeling historical development? By mathematically modeling history, "Cliodynamics" has revealed interesting patterns. For ex...

Explaining Humanity's Transition to Agriculture 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang Xueqin explains why humans adopted agriculture. We now know that there were many consequences due to the transition to agriculture. Hunter-gatherers had an easier, more healthier, and less disease-prone life. So why did humans make this sacrifice? Though there are many explanations, most scholars believe that it was the religious impulse that drove humans to choose a sedentary life...

The Yamnaya Conquest of Europe 25.05.2026

Homo sapiens originated in Africa 300,000 years ago, and for the vast majority of our history we were egalitarian, peaceful, and artistic. So where did concepts of patriarchy, war, and private property come from? The Yamnaya people are nomadic pastoralists who originated in the Eurasian Steppes. They worshipped the Sky Father, and excelled at waging war. Slowly, their culture spread throughout the...

Elite Overproduction and the Bronze Age Collapse 25.05.2026

Why the Bronze Age collapsed. In the year 1200 BCE the world was globalized and prosperous. Nations shared people, ideas, and goods. A few decades later, the Bronze Age collapsed. Mycenaean Greece and Hittite Anatolia were destroyed, and the Sea Peoples ravaged Egypt. Scholars disagree on what caused this collapse. Some argued it was a northern invasion, while others believed there was a cataclysm...

Homer's Iliad and the Birth of Greek Civilization 25.05.2026

The Greeks were humanity's most creative civilization. Homer's Iliad and Odyssey are timeless classics, Plato's The Republic continues to inspire, and Thucydides are still read by military officers in search of strategic insights. Why were the Greeks so creative? After the destruction of Mycenaean Greece at the end of the Bronze Age, Greece became divided into thousands of diverse city...

Rat Utopia and the Peloponnesian War 25.05.2026

In his book The Peloponnesian War, Thucydides explains that the war started because Sparta saw Athens as a threat to its hegemony. In this talk Jiang Xueqin argues that the American scientist James Calhoun’s “rat utopia” experiments offer a better explanation. In the 1950s and 1960s James Calhoun conducted experiments in which colonies of rats were put into worlds of plenty and abundance. All thes...

Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides as Prophets of Democracy 25.05.2026

What made Athenian democracy so strong and vibrant? Jiang Xueqin explains that theater taught Athenians how to be democratic citizens. The three major dramatists were Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides. Aeschylus' Oresteia offered a mythology of democracy, showing that democracy was a gift from Athena herself, and that by practicing it well Athenians could make the whole world more just, fair...

The Trial of Socrates and Plato's Allegory of the Cave 25.05.2026

In 399 BCE the Athenian people condemned Socrates to drink hemlock. In this lecture to Chinese high school students, Jiang Xueqin examines the significance and legacy of the trial of Socrates. During his lifetime, Socrates enjoyed exposing Athens' leading intellectuals. He became so notorious that the satirist Aristophanes ridiculed him in a play. Socrates had many admirers though. A group of...

The Greatness of Philip II of Macedon 25.05.2026

In this talk Jiang Xueqin examines how Philip II of Macedon turned his kingdom from a poor and weak nation into the military hegemony that would conquer Persia. In his youth, Philip was a hostage at Thebes, where he studied the military innovations that made Thebes into the dominant military power in Greece at that time. He learned that with enough training and discipline, an army could achieve th...

The Tyranny of Alexander the Great 25.05.2026

We celebrate Alexander the Great as one of the greatest conquerors of history. What motivated him? Was he truly a strategic genius? What is his ultimate legacy? Professor Jiang Xueqin presents a revisionist understanding of Alexander the Great. He argues that Alexander was first and foremost motivated to prove he was better than his father. With his boundless ambition, he could not find peace unti...

Aristotle and the Greek Legacy 25.05.2026

Plato and Aristotle are considered the two most influential philosophers of Western antiquity. But there are three central paradoxes surrounding the life and work of Aristotle. He is considered a brilliant thinker, but we do not have any of his original writings. Over two hundred works are attributed to him, and the range of his works is extra-ordinary and super-human – he’s written about metaphys...

Hannibal Barca, Lucius Brutus, and the Triumph of Rome 25.05.2026

In 216 BCE, Hannibal Barca of Carthage defeated Rome at the Battle of Cannae. After three devastating defeats to Hannibal, Rome had lost twenty percent of its adult male population, and one-third of its Senate. The Roman Republic chose to continue fighting, and eventually it triumphed in the Second Punic War.

The Myth-Making Genius of Julius Caesar 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang Xueqin examines the life and times of Julius Caesar. What motivated him? What made him so successful? Why was he assassinated? In 100 BCE, Julius Caesar was born into the "Imperial Republic" of Rome, a contradiction that led to inequality, corruption, and division. He came to believe he was a man of destiny who would restore the unity, stability, and prosperity of the Rom...

Julius Caesar's Will and Octavian's Birth of Empire 25.05.2026

In 44 BCE, an eighteen-year old Octavian arrived in Rome without an army and without political alliances, and seventeen years later he became Rome’s first emperor. How did he do it? Professor Jiang Xueqin explores and explains the birth of the Roman Empire. Julius Caesar saw himself as a man of destiny who would save the Roman Republic, a myth that was met with much skepticism in Rome. After he wa...

Homer, Vergil, and the War for the Soul of Rome 25.05.2026

Professor Jiang Xueqin explains why Vergil's "The Aeneid" is such brilliant propaganda. In 27 BCE, the Roman Senate declared Octavian "Augustus," making him effectively the first emperor. But Augustus Caesar still had three problems. First, he needed to establish his legitimacy and authority. To do so, he promoted the myth that his Julii family were descendants of Aeneas, a...

The Great Pyramid as Ancient Egypt's Manhattan Project 25.05.2026

For thousands of years, the Great Pyramid of Giza has captivated and captured the imagination of the world. Why was it built? Professor Jiang Xueqin argues against the mainstream theory that the Great Pyramid was built as a grand tomb for the Pharaoh. He argues that the Great Pyramid was Ancient Egypt’s Manhattan Project, an attempt to unravel the secrets of the universe and channel the power of G...

Gilgamesh and Mesopotamia's Quest for Immortality 25.05.2026

Professor vJiang Xueqin explains why Mesopotamia became the cradle of civilization. He explains that geography determined the destinies and mythologies of Egypt and Mesopotamia. Protected by natural boundaries and nurtured by the bountiful Nile, Egypt believed in benevolent Gods. Mesopotamia had no natural boundaries and its two rivers -- the Euphrates and Tigris -- were mercurial and chaotic, whi...

The Proto-Buddhists of the Indus Valley (Harappan) Civilization 25.05.2026

Egypt, Mesopotamia, and the Indus Valley were the three great civilizations of the Bronze Age. What made the Indus Valley Civilization distinct? Why did they decline? What is their legacy? Professor Jiang Xueqin explains that the Indus Valley Civilization (also known as the Harappan Civilization) was mainly a peaceful and egalitarian society, which prospered because of its global trade networks. T...

The Apology of King David of Israel 24.05.2026

Professor Jiang Xueqin argues that the Bible was originally written as an apology for King David of Israel to establish his legitimacy and authority. The Bronze Age Collapse altered the geo-political landscape of the Levant, and with the retreat of the Egyptians and Hittites new political entities emerged. Threatened by the Philistines, the Israelites elected Saul to be their king. With the death...

The Literary Genesis of the Yahwist 24.05.2026

Professor Jiang Xueqin explains the power and beauty of the Book of Genesis. The chronology of the Pentateuch is confusing and contradictory. Archaeologists and historians have failed to discover any concrete evidence that Noah or Abraham or Moses ever existed. Jiang Xueqin argues that the Bible is not a chronology, but a cosmology designed to accomplish three major objectives:1. To legitimize Kin...

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