Probable Causation

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes. “ When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers ” by Emma Rackstraw. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn " ‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing " by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss. “ The Birth...

David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies. “ Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism ” by David Macdonald. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws ” by Joanna M. Shepherd. “ Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-senten...

Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.   “ Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision ” by Ryan Sakoda.   OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Intensive Probation and Parole " by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner. “ The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial ” by Geoffrey...

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment. “ Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation ” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith “ Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discriminatio...

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. “ A Cognitive View of Policing ” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago " by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. P...

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by...

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preve...

Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism. " In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid " by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.   OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility " by Elisa Jacome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jacome...

William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism. " Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program " by William Arbour. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago ” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhi...

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum...

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by Da...

Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence. “Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du.  OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock. “Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from...

Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis.  “The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Empl...

Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses. “Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. “Smartphone Data Reveal Neighbor...

Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probation...

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and...

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenbe...

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.  OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jon...

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crim...

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021. “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette. *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “When Brute Force Fails: How to Have L...

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021. "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos,...

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employm...

Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability. “Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Collec...

Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia. “Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supportin...

Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs. “Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH W...