Power and Flour Podcast

Texas kicked it all off, but now lots of states are considering a mid-decade redistricting, potentially leading to a war of all against all for partisan advantage. Is this stuff legal? Constitutional? What could each side realistically hope to achieve? What does this looks like when the dust settles? To help explain this, Seth and John invited Eric McGhee of the Public Policy Institute of Californ...

John and Seth join the rest of the world in discussing the Epstein/Trump controversy and the extent to which it’s creating a real split between Trump and the MAGA base that cares so deeply about blowing the lid on this story. They talk about the evidence that actually exists to identify a rift or the rift’s closure, the political consequences of an angry and rootless base, the influence of the med...

John and Seth dig into the Democratic nomination of Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral race, examining how he put together a winning coalition, and speculating why so many establishment Democrats (more in the city than outside it) have been fearful about his successes there. They also discuss what kind of effects this race could have on 2026’s primaries, and also why leading political figur...

There’s some ongoing confusion over whether the U.S. is actually at war with Iran, whether Iran is at war with Israel, whether Israel and/or Iran are violating a ceasefire they may or may not have agreed to, whether the airstrikes succeeded or failed, and more. John and Seth stick with the part of it they know something about: How the American public thinks about war. This episode gets into shifti...

John and Seth discuss the new Catalist report on what exactly happened in the 2024 presidential election. They discuss some fascinating trends, including the fact that higher turnout seems to be benefitting Republicans now, that the election was far closer in the battleground states, and that the electorate is getting less polarized by race and more polarized by education. Also on tap: Is pie ever...

Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) has introduced articles of impeachment against Donald Trump , and the House Democratic leadership is trying to distance themselves from the topic. This effort represents a lot of what Democrats are struggling with right now — dealing with demands from their activist base to do something about Trump’s lawlessness but also not wanting to screw up a favorable political envir...

John and Seth dig into Trump’s flagging approval ratings, and especially the role that the economy, and economic perceptions, have played in this. They discuss how polarization seems to limit just how popular or unpopular presidents can be, and how partisanship colors just how people perceive the world around them. They also talk about Democratic messaging and how it can influence Trump’s approval...

Dr. Sara Chatfield joins John and Seth for a discussion of her research on the politics of bathroom access. It ends up being a rich conversation about the inclusion and exclusion of trans Americans from aspects of society, why the Trump campaign pushed so hard on this issue last year, and what Democrats could or should be saying in response. There’s also conversation about wedding cakes, one-bowl...

Could congressional Democrats, especially in the House, be doing more to slow down or oppose the Trump administration? Or do the numbers simply mean they’re out of power and have no ability to shape events? Special guest Dr. Matt Green , a political scientist who specializes in the powers of the House minority party, helps John and Seth sort all this out. The discussion covers the powers that mino...

Believe it or not, there are a bunch of important and interesting elections just around the corner. Seth and John talk about the candidates, the campaigns, and the stakes for some upcoming congressional special elections, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, the legislative and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the ever-annoying mayoral election in New York City, and more. They also get in...

What does the Democratic resistance to the Trump agenda look like? Seth went on a tear last week at Tusk talking about how Democrats seemed to be more interested in following public opinion than shaping it. In this episode, John and Seth talk about what shaping it looks like. Can party leaders tell us what to think, or at least what to think about ? Do Democrats have anyone who can affect public o...

John and Seth were honored to be joined by political scientist Ashley Jardina for a discussion about race and white identity. We talk about just what it means to be “white” in the 21st century, how this identity has become more overt and more politicized in recent years, and how this is all playing into some of the Trump administration’s most aggressive moves in attacking DEI initiatives. We also...

John and Seth examine the recent spate of town hall meetings held by both Democratic and Republican members of Congress. John sticks to his advice that members of Congress probably shouldn’t do these events, but that they’re good for democracy anyway, and people should attend! We talk about ways that these events can influence politics — both showing the limits of the majority party’s power and pr...

John and Seth were honored to be joined by Colorado Republican Krista Kafer for a discussion of what the non-Trump wing of the modern Republican Party looks like. We discuss what a post-Trump GOP could look like, what the costs of opposing Trump are, and the unique hold he seems to have over so many party members. Krista talks at length about her experience as one of the people who brought the law...

Trump’s targets in his first three weeks in office — USAID, the Treasury payment system, indirect costs at NIH, etc. — tend to be relatively obscure sounding and are areas that voters have little if any concept of, yet can have enormous effects on many aspects of American life. In this episode, John and Seth talk about the purpose of picking these targets, and the challenges facing Democrats and o...

You can’t really talk about U.S. politics today without talking about polarization, but that concept is sometimes very murky, and can even be a distraction or a dodge. In this episode, John asks Seth some key questions about polarization — is it getting stronger, how is it related to the media, is it a dodge, is it related to gerrymandering, might it actually be good, can it be mitigated, etc. — a...

John and Seth are honored to be joined by Boris Heersink, the author of National Party Organizations and Party Brands in American Politics , for a discussion about the upcoming contest for chair of the Democratic National Committee. We discuss just what national party organizations are, what chairs do, and why the next DNC chair might have more power to shape a functionally leaderless and out-of-p...

John and Seth examine how the Democratic response to the 2025 Trump transition is so different from what they did in 2017, and discuss just what is the best approach for an opposition party. Should they fight Trump on everything? Try to work with him where they can? Is it best just to let voters actually see what happens when Republicans get what they want? Also, we discuss yeast, both in sourdoug...

John and Seth sort through the remains of the 2024 presidential election to figure out what kind of campaign effects they can detect in there. They also look at just how good polling was and what kinds of narratives are being drawn from the campaign, and discuss tips for making really good ice cream. Power & Flour will be on hiatus through the month of December, but we will return in 2025 with a w...

This election season started in late 2022, and somehow, a mere 1,000 years later, it’s about to end. John and Seth discuss what to expect in the coming week. What actually will happen once the votes are in? What patterns will we likely see as the ballots are counted? Which states will take a while to count and which will go quickly? How soon will we likely know the winner (possibly days), and how...

John and Seth look at the Trump and Harris campaigns’ ground games — their efforts to go door-to-door to turn out supportive voters in swing states. They discuss the existing research on just how much ground games matter, and then dig into Harris’ efforts to build on existing Democratic infrastructure, and Trump’s efforts to create something on the fly with millions in Musk Money. John and Seth al...

In this episode, John and Seth look at how polling organizations have tried to adjust to some misses in 2016 and 2020, where they understated Trump’s support by 3 to 4 points. Some polling organizations are attempting to weight their current polls by people’s recall of the vote from four years ago, and our hosts get into the pluses and minuses of doing that. John and Seth also look into evidence t...

In this episode, John and Seth discuss the early vote in 2024. Who has voted so far? What kind of voters tend to vote early and what kind don’t? What are the consequences of an election “day” that lasts more than a month? Can we learn anything in advance by knowing who is voting now? Some links: * Early voting statistics from the University of Florida’s Election Lab . * TargetSmart’s early voting...

John and Seth talk with DC political consultant Joe Fuld, founder of the Campaign Workshop , to discuss the skills and training of the current presidential and vice presidential candidates. How much does candidate skill actually matter? How well are these candidates doing? Could Kamala Harris have had a more successful rollout? Is Trump campaigning differently from 2016 or 2020? We also pivot to a...

It’s our quick-turnaround presidential debate special! Seth and John discuss just who undecided voters are and what they saw in this debate (if any of them watched), the differences between prepping male and female candidates for a debate and the expectations they’re held to, whether it helps Trump to go deep into the Fox Cinematic University during debates, and what kind of effects this debate co...