PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

The first half of 2026 saw markets power through a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty, and now earnings will be important to watch as the second half gets under way, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “We are positive for the markets because we think there's still some room to go for corporate earnings,” Christian says, noting that expectations for resu...

Uncertainty around the ultimate impact of AI on various business models has led to a degree of uneven stock performance, but there are certain sectors that could lead, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “We remain bullish on technology, communication services, industrials, materials, and healthcare.” There has been some complacency in energy markets sin...

A relief rally followed the US-Iran preliminary peace deal, as “the agreement provides a clear relief for global energy markets”, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets – though he notes that any stumbles in the peace process “could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil prices and also bring volatility back in the global markets.” Meanwhile, the first Federal Reserve...

Record-topping IPOs in the technology sector do not necessarily mean it is time to radically alter portfolios, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. "I would be a bit cautious about assuming a mechanical rotation out of existing technology leaders. These companies remain highly cash generative and also central to index construction,” Jacky says. “I think any shift is mo...

Markets are expecting the European Central Bank to lift interest rates this week, but rates may still have higher to go, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The inflation pressures are real, as we can see in the data, and not just in Europe”, Markus says, adding that the US central bank is less likely to raise rates, but p...

In this week's podcast, Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, comments on how markets have endured a great deal of uncertainty around the Middle East conflict without becoming overly reactive. “I think the really good news is that the markets have reacted in a very rational way,” he says, noting that interest-rate expectations are still shifting as a result. “Even...

Stock markets and bond markets are being swayed by different forces to a considerable degree, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “For equity markets, AI is the main story. For bond markets, it’s what’s happening to energy prices.” The technology sector is likely to continue its leadership of equity markets, Deepak says, noting that AI infrastructure spe...

First-quarter earnings results are already drifting into the rear-view mirror, and that is likely to put more focus on geopolitics and economic performance, says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. “From a risk sentiment perspective, markets are less focused on headlines right now, but more on whether geopolitical risks remain contained,” Jacky says, noting that with crude trading above $100 a ba...

The Private Bank’s CIO team has named its base case scenario for the Middle East conflict a "fragile ceasefire", says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. "We expect the majority of oil and gas flows to normalise by the end of the second quarter, although with recurring disruptions and heightened geopolitical risk premiums”, Jacky says. “In this scenario, oil prices could likely ease, while volati...

The S&P 500 in April had its strongest showing since the Covid vaccine breakthrough, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "Both from a macro and corporate earnings perspective, things look great," Deepak says, noting that a lot of institutional investors shifted to more bullish positions during the month. First-quarter US GDP data also showed strength...

The first wave of earnings reports suggest that companies do not expect the Middle East conflict to linger, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "Companies are saying that they are impacted, but the outlook is that this might not take forever," Christian says. "The bar is still quite high for companies to deliver." Meanwhile, none of the big central banks are...

Earnings season is underway in the US, and the focus will shift this week from financial services to big technology companies, notes Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. Earnings expectations are high, and that “makes disappointment possible, so some caution is wise”, Markus says, but that is “unlikely to disrupt the underlying p...

Markets bounced higher when the Iran ceasefire took place, but the situation remains uncertain, and many assets are likely to remain volatile, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "What we are probably getting here is a fragile stabilisation, not a clean resolution”, Jacky says. “So even if the ceasefire holds on paper, markets will still want proof that things are working...

Oil prices will remain volatile as long as the outcome of the Middle East conflict is unclear, says Dr Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s emerging markets CIO. “The best way to frame oil right now is that we are in a market dominated by headlines, but not by conviction”, Jacky says. “Our sense is that oil is still carrying a meaningful geopolitical premium, and the market is not prepared to take that...

Energy prices have continued to jump, but that might not be a lasting effect of the Middle East conflict – if the fighting doesn’t spread, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “A prolonged disruption of oil supply from the Gulf remains unlikely as historically such blockades are difficult to sustain”, Markus says. “Energy ma...