On Point

Politics will be in the spotlight with the first round of French legislative elections on Sunday, then the UK general election on Thursday. In the US, investors will be watching the latest ISM manufacturing and services indices on Monday and Wednesday, before the all-important jobs report on Friday. It'll be a holiday-shortened week with the Independence Day holiday on Friday, and markets will be...

US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s something we can learn from that as investors. There’s nothing wrong with being mindful of risks and let’s be honest, at any given time the list of concerning issues is a lengthy one. However, when it comes to investing being an optimist pays off.

Inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the PCE report for May due in the US as well as flash CPIs in several European economies and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from the June meeting is out, while the European Central Bank will release its latest consumer expectations survey and there is also a monetary policy decision from Sweden's Riksbank. There's...

We're five months out from the US presidential election and the campaign is set to heat up next week. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of 2024 on the evening of June 27. While it breaks with tradition for the first debate to be so early in the piece, there's hardly anything normal about this election. Biden should be in pole position, at least according to...

The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.6% and hit new highs last week, as investors were encouraged by a softer than expected May inflation report. In contrast, European shares fell 2.8% in the wake of fresh political uncertainty. Elsewhere, the Australian ASX 200 fell 1.7% and the FTSE 100 in the UK was 1.2% lower. Japanese and emerging markets were little moved, as was the local NZX 50. Looking ahead, ret...

There’s been a raft of bad news from locally listed companies over the past several weeks, with more than a dozen either downgrading earnings guidance or providing negative trading updates. This hasn’t been limited to the smaller end of town either, with at least ten NZX 50 constituents in the headlines for the wrong reasons too. When it comes to inflation and interest rates, bad news can be good...

This week will be an eventful one in the US, with the June Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the May consumer price index report. In the UK we'll get monthly GDP and some fresh labour market indicators ahead of the Bank of England meeting next week, while the Bank of Japan will release its latest monetary policy decision on Friday. It'll be a holiday-shortened week across...

We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora of challenges to build very successful businesses. When the time comes to think beyond the farm, investing in a portfolio dominated by shares, listed property, private equity and fixed income doesn’t always come naturally. Having less control and influe...

Global politics are in the spotlight this week, with a presidential election in Mexico, elections for the European parliament to be held on June 6-9, and India's six-week long national election in its final phase. In the US, all eyes will be on Friday's jobs report in the lead up to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, while the latest ISM indices will also be in focus. In Europe, the key event wi...

The Reserve Bank left the Official Cash Rate unchanged last week, and it's forecast track suggests there will be no respite for borrowers until next year, even though the economy is slowing more than expected, unemployment is rising more quickly and inflation has fallen to the lowest level in three years. The headline consumer price index increased at an annual rate of four per cent in the 12 mont...

Inflation indicators across some of the major regions will be in focus this week, with PCE inflation due in the US, as well as preliminary measures in Europe and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. Locally, Budget 2024 will take centre stage on Thursday afternoon, and we'll also get some fresh business confidence figures for May. There's plenty happening on the corporate front too, as the reporting season hea...

There are many sayings in the investment world, and one that always comes up at this time of year is “sell in May and go away”. The adage emerged in the Northern Hemisphere and it suggests investors should sell their shares in May, relax and enjoy the summer months before returning to the market in the autumn (or spring, here in New Zealand). It's based on a suggestion the six months from November...

There's plenty for investors to keep an eye on in the week ahead, with some of the key releases likely to be the flash PMIs for some of the major economies. Markets will also be monitoring the minutes from the most recent Fed and Reserve Bank of Australia meetings, as well as inflation prints in the UK and Japan. Share investors will also be highly attuned to the latest earnings release from NVIDI...

We’re starting to see an increasing divergence in the outlook for growth, inflation and the likely next move from many of the world’s central banks. Some are on track to cut policy interest rates as expected, such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE). Others, like the US Federal Reserve and our own Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), are grappling with stubbornly high i...

The S&P 500 in the US was up 1.9% last week, while the UK and Europe were stronger still, rising 2.7% and 3.2% respectively. In contrast, it was a tough week for the local market. The NZX 50 fell 1.5% in the wake of a string of recent profit warnings and poor trading updates from the likes of Air New Zealand, Spark, Tourism Holdings and The Warehouse. In the US, the latest CPI and retail sales rep...

Some women are apprehensive about investing, but there’s plenty of evidence they’re better at it than their male counterparts. There have been several studies conducted over the years, and many of these have shown that on average, women often achieve better investment returns than men. Women are more likely to follow tried and tested investing principles, while men often think they know better. St...

It was the second good week in a row for global sharemarkets, with many continuing to rebound from the weakness we saw in April. Markets still see interest rate cuts on the horizon, with some comforting Federal Reserve comments and a softer jobs report adding to hopes last week. This week, the US consumer will be in focus as the University of Michigan consumer survey is due for release. We'll also...

If you buy a share or exchange traded fund (ETF) listed outside New Zealand, it’s not just changes in the share price that will determine your return. You also need to keep an eye on the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the currency in question. While currency moves don’t have a significant bearing on long-term returns and at times they can help reduce volatility, over shorter peri...

After an April sell-off saw the US market fall 5.5% from its all time, the S&P 500 rebounded 2.7% last week, its best performance in almost six months. This came despite another hotter than expected inflation report, with the headline PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) increasing at an annual rate of 2.7%. Solid earnings releases drove the gains, and with 46% of the market having reported 8...

Markets were volatile last week, with another stronger than expected inflation report in the US rattling investors and pushing out hope for interest rate cuts. Wednesday's release of our own consumer price index for the March 2024 quarter will be the key event here in New Zealand, with markets hopeful this will be fall further and open the door to Official Cash Rate cuts later in the year. Elsewhe...

Several sharemarkets hit new highs during the first few months of this year, but the most significant milestone of all came in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 index finally retook the level it reached 34 years ago in 1989. After a stellar performance in 2023 which saw the Nikkei surge 28.2 per cent, even outpacing the mighty S&P 500, Japanese shares rose another 20.6 per cent in the first three months...

The highlight of the coming week will be the consumer price index report in the US, after two months of stronger-than-expected figures. The odds of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen from almost 90% to about 50/50 in recent weeks. The European Central Bank will release a monetary policy decision on Thursday and while no change is expected, markets will be looking for clues that a rate cut is...

This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would’ve expected. World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge. New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain. As was the case in 2023, well-diversified investo...

It'll be another holiday-shortened week, with markets closed on Monday in New Zealand, Australia and the UK (while the US market will open as normal on Monday). The highlight will be the March jobs report in the US, while the latest ISM indices are also due (on Monday and Wednesday). If the flash PMIs for the same period are anything to go by, we might see an improvement across the manufacturing s...

If you hold some of your investments in a trust, your tax rate is going up next week. You might need to rethink the types of assets you own and the investment vehicles you choose, to ensure you’re not paying more tax than you need to. But beware, the impost might not be the showstopper some are suggesting it will be, and it doesn’t always make sense to build an investment strategy around tax minim...