On Point

There's plenty to monitor across the world this week. Flash PMIs for December will be out early in the week, while another highlight will be the PCE inflation report in the US on Friday. There are three major central banks meetings taking place, with the Federal Reserve in the US expected to cut interest rates again on Thursday morning and decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England later...

As this year draws to a close, there are a raft of questions over what to expect from financial markets in 2025. Will the New Zealand economy recover from recession, how much further will interest rates fall, and what will that mean for the housing market? Investors are also pondering the outlook for the ailing local sharemarket, while speculating if the might S&P 500 can keep rising or if it'...

This week the global highlight will be the November CPI report in the US on Wednesday. This will be closely watched as investors look ahead to the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year next week, where the central bank is expected to reduce interest rates another 0.25 per cent. Markets will also be watching the latest inflation and trade data in China, monthly GDP in the UK and central bank de...

It’s been a good year for the local sharemarket. The NZX 50 index is up 11.0 per cent so far, which sees it on track for its best year in four. Most of our biggest companies have performed well, but one notable exception is Spark. It’s share price is down more than 40 per cent in 2024, making it one of the biggest decliners across the entire exchange. There are several reasons for the disappointin...

This week is a busy one in terms of international economic releases. The focus will be on the US jobs report, which is out on Friday. This will be a key piece of the puzzle ahead of the Fed's next decision on December 18 (where markets see a 65% chance of another 0.25% cut). We'll also get the latest ISM indices in the US, as well as the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey. November P...

The US sharemarket has pushed higher since the election, building on the strong gains we saw leading up to it. The S&P 500 index is up 27 per cent (including dividends) so far in 2024, on the back of a similar rise last year. After the 60 per cent return since the end of 2022, is a traditional “Santa rally” on the cards, or will the market run out of puff?

The final RBNZ meeting of 2024 is on Wednesday. Markets expect another 50-basis point cut, but could the RBNZ go bigger or smaller? We'll also get the retail sales report for the September quarter, and the latest monthly ANZ Business Outlook. There will be plenty to watch on the corporate front too, with a raft of listed companies scheduled to release earnings including Turners, Fisher & Paykel He...

There’s a lot of excitement out there amongst borrowers, particularly those with a mortgage renewal coming up. The message boards are full of people speculating on how low rates will go, and strategizing how to play it for maximum advantage. While the optimism is justified, some caution applies as well. If you’re in the midst of that refixing decision, there are a couple of important points to be...

November flash PMIs will be among the key international releases, with these due from most of the major economies on Friday. Investors will also be watching inflation readings from the UK and Japan, while there is a long list of central bank speakers. The world's most valuable share, NVIDIA, reports on Wednesday and we'll also see earnings releases from Walmart, Palo Alto Networks and Target. It'l...

Last week's Federal Reserve press conference was a little different to usual, coming hot on the heels of the election. Fed Chair Jerome Powell fielded several questions about President-elect Donald Trump, offering nothing in response. However, the Fed can’t avoid talking about Trump forever though. We're in for an interesting twelve months, and it might all start with the upcoming meeting in Decem...

The latest inflation figures will be a highlight in the US this week, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday in Dallas about the economic outlook. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s survey of expectations will be in focus, as will the latest housing market report from the Real Estate Institute. On the corporate front, the international reporting season is wi...

There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a minimum are but a few examples. One of the simplest but most important, especially it comes to shares (or any growth asset, for that matter) is to maintain a long-term view. That can be difficult, especially during periods of uncertainty (which come frequen...

Brace yourself, this week will be one of the biggest of the year for investors! It's not often a Federal Reserve meeting takes a back seat to other events, but the US election will absolutely be the focal point in the days ahead. The Fed decision will follow later in the week, with markets expecting a 0.25% rate cut, and monetary policy decisions will also be forthcoming from the Reserve Bank of A...

The US presidential election is almost upon us, and recent polls suggest it’s too close to call. That bodes well for former President Donald Trump, who performed much better than the polls suggested in both 2016 and 2020. Maybe that’s why the betting odds are tilted in his favour and Wall Street now views Trump as the favourite. What might this mean for interest rates, the US dollar and the sharem...

It's a busy week ahead on the US economic calendar, with PCE inflation for September as well as the latest ISM index and the all important jobs report. Inflation will be in focus across the Tasman, while the highlight of a holiday-shortened week in New Zealand with be the latest ANZ Business Outlook. On the corporate front, investors can look forward to earnings releases from some of the tech heav...

The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewise, some share investors see property as far too much work for a relatively modest reward. Shares and property have many fundamental value drivers in common, but they are also very different. Let's crunch the numbers to see which stacks up best, and...

This week's key releases will be October flash PMIs, the Fed Beige Book, European consumer confidence and the Tokyo CPI in Japan. The international quarterly corporate reporting season continues as well, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to announce results. Some of the highlights are likely to include 3M, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Tesla, Unilever, UPS and Colgate-Palmolive. Closer to ho...

The Reserve Bank's bumper OCR cut gave the local sharemarket a boost earlier this month. With further reductions expected in the coming months, New Zealand shares could be in for a brighter period. Listed companies should see improved earnings as the recession abates and the economy recovers, which bodes well for dividends as well as share prices. As investors face steadily falling returns from te...

The international corporate reporting season ramps up this week, with numerous heavyweights set to announce earnings. With the S&P 500 in the US sitting at record highs, this will be important for the direction of markets. Some of the highlights in the coming days are likely to include Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, Nestle, Netflix, TSMC and Procter & Gamble. It'll be a busy w...

Gold has been one of the best performing assets these last two years, rising more than 40 per cent and even outpacing the S&P 500 index in the US. Long regarded as a safe-haven asset, it is traditionally favoured by those worried about the health of the global economy and financial system. However, gold has also proven to be a useful diversifier, making it a candidate for inclusion in mainstre...

We have a lot of clients from farming backgrounds, either past or present. They’re great people, and many have spent decades overcoming a plethora of challenges to build very successful businesses. When the time comes to think beyond the farm, investing in a portfolio dominated by shares, listed property, private equity and fixed income doesn’t always come naturally. Having less control and influe...

US tech investor Nat Friedman famously said "pessimists sound smart, optimists make money." He wasn’t referring to financial markets, but there’s something we can learn from that as investors. There’s nothing wrong with being mindful of risks and let’s be honest, at any given time the list of concerning issues is a lengthy one. However, when it comes to investing being an optimist pays off.

The New Zealand dollar has rebounded strongly in the last couple of months. It’s been sitting comfortably above US$0.63 in recent days, up eight per cent from under US$0.59 in late July. That’s the highest in more than a year and not far from the long-term average of US$0.66. What's driving this recent surge, where might the NZ dollar go from here and what does this mean for the economy?

The US labour market will be in focus this week, as investors speculate on the likelihood of another 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. There will also be a debate between the US Vice Presidential candidates in New York this week. Locally, business confidence will be in the spotlight with the ANZ Business Outlook for September due on Monday and the NZIER's QSBO out the n...

The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang last week. It cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.50 per cent, a bigger move than some had expected. Is that an ominous sign for the outlook, or will it be the catalyst for markets to keep pushing higher? Central banks don’t have a great track record of taming inflation without causing recessions, but for now investors are keeping the faith.