On Point

The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This real...

What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50...

Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation across financial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hitting fresh record highs. Here's what you need to know if you're thinking about adding the shiny stuff to your portfolio.

The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the GDP report for the June quarter.

There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us mor...

France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.

New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks reduce mortgage rates we don’t benefit from those lower costs right away. A steady stream of borrowers moving onto lower rates will hopefully boost activity and spending, putting businesses in a stronger position and giving them the confidence to grow,...

It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the August jobs report, ISM indices and the Fed's Beige Book all due for release. We'll also be watching for any political fallout after President Trump’s tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last week!

Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That’s not hyperbole, it’s the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple together make up more than one-fifth of the S&P 500. To put that in perspective, it's more than the combined weight of the four traditional defensive sectors of the market - healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. What does this mean for...

The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while we'll hear from Coles, Woolworths, South32 and Wesfarmers across the Tasman. Internationally, NVIDIA will be in focus when its latest earnings are announced on Wednesday in the US.

World shares have hit fresh record highs in recent days, defying forecasts for a pullback and looking much stronger than many predicted a few months ago. The MSCI All Country World Index is up 13.2 per cent in 2025, and is more than 40 per cent higher over the past two years. Let's run through some of the reasons why investors are in such good spirits, as we ponder whether this optimism is jus...

There's plenty to monitor this week with the local highlight expected to be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Wednesday afternoon. Another cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is widely expected, and markets will be focused on the latest forecasts and projections for clues as to how low the OCR goes from there.

The local reporting season is heating up, and we’re all hopeful it’ll suggest the long-awaited economic recovery is in sight. The coming few weeks will reveal whether our listed corporate sector is ready to embrace recovery, or if we’ll be left cautiously waiting for another six months or more. For under-pressure management teams, frustrated investors and nervous politicians alike, the stakes are...

Tariff headlines will remain a focal point this week, with the pause between the US and China due to to expire on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump also plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska, as he looks to broker a ceasefire agreement and bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Despite some short-term pricing pressures, inflation is largely under control and expected to remain within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. However, even if we can declare inflation beaten the effects of the cost-of-living crisis still linger. The pace of the increases may have slowed right now, but we’re stuck with the big rises of the last few years.

Trade and tariffs will in focus again this week, with the new US tariffs set to take effect on Thursday. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the June quarter labour force report, which is out on Wednesday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to increase to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. This is likely to seal the deal on another cut to the Official Cash Rate later this month.

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is always a common question, and it’s especially relevant today. While mortgage rates are way down from the highs of 2023, borrowing costs are still above the average of the past 15 years. Let's crunch a few numbers and run through some pros and cons.

A massive week looms for investors. Trade negotiations will remain front and centre, with markets particularly focused on developments between the US and the European Union, as well as talks between the US and China. Outside of trade, there is no shortage of economic releases and central bank decisions for investors to digest, including the US jobs report and a Fed decision. If that's not enough t...

The country has dragged itself out of recession and mortgage rates have been falling for 18 months. However, against conventional wisdom the long-awaited housing market recovery still hasn't arrived. For the first time in a long while, the housing market is working more for buyers than sellers, and that rebalancing might be exactly what we need.

Here in New Zealand, the June quarter inflation report will be the key release this week. Markets are bracing for an increase in the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, the highest in 12 months and above Reserve Bank expectations. Elsewhere, the international earnings season will ramp up after a good start, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to announce results over the coming days.

The RBNZ isn’t done with cutting rates just yet, but an important insight borrowers should take from last week’s "no change" decision is that we are nearing the end of the easing cycle. The upshot here is that most of the downward move in mortgage rates is behind us. I wouldn’t say this is quite “as good as it gets” for borrowers, but we’re much closer to that point than many think.

Markets will watching for further news on tariffs out of the White House this week, and keeping an eye on some key growth indicators out of China. Earnings will also be in focus, as the international reporting season ramps up. With many indices - including the S&P 500 in the US - sitting close to record highs this could be a crucial test for markets.

AI could prove an extremely useful tool, making workers more productive and unlocking exciting innovations. While we've seen technological changes in the past, AI adoption curves could be steeper than those of other major shifts in recent decades. The long-term improvement in living standards and productivity growth will come at a short-term cost, and policymakers will need to think carefully abou...

A crucial week looms, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. Markets are eagerly awaiting the end of the President Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff extension, which expires on July 9th. Closer to home, all eyes will be on the RBNZ, to see if it leaves the OCR unchanged as expected, or surprises markets with another cut.

Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you’d be if you’d missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it’ll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that i...