On Point

The focus this week will remain on the Middle East, with US President Trump’s ten-day pause in attacks on Iran’s energy facilities set to expire on Monday. The key economic release is likely to be the CPI inflation report for March in the US, where annual inflation is expected to jump to a two-year high of 3.4%. Here in Aotearoa the main event will be the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisio...

The last month will have been disconcerting for investors, especially those new to financial markets. Some will be tempted to sell out, cutting their losses in case the conflict escalates and markets fall further. If you're a trader with a time horizon that’s measured in weeks or months, maybe that's the right approach. However, if your foray into share investing is part of a longer-term s...

The ongoing conflict in Iran will remain front and centre for investors, while another batch of economic indicators for March are released. The highest profile release will be the US jobs report, while we'll also get the ISM manufacturing index and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence. Here in New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook survey for March will be a highlight. A fall in sentiment...

The conflict between the US and Iran has disrupted one of the world’s most important trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of this will feed directly into local inflation, reversing some of our recent progress and reminding households that global events can still hit close to home. How will the Reserve Bank react to this, and are we set for early OCR hikes?

Global flash PMIs for March will be the key global releases this week, as some of the first economic indicators we’ll get that cover the period since the war began. Here In New Zealand, all eyes will be on RBNZ Governor Dr Anna Breman on Tuesday. She is scheduled to give a speech discussing the potential impacts of the conflict on the New Zealand economy.

With the election less than eight months away now, investors are increasingly starting to think about what it means for the economy, asset prices and their portfolios. The election campaign will no doubt be entertaining, with the usual twists and turns. However, there’s no need for a complete rethink of your investment strategy, nor should we let political uncertainty stop us taking action.

Central banks will be the key focus in the days ahead (outside of geopolitics), with interest rate decisions due from several major policymaking groups. The Federal Reserve in the US will be the highlight, while we'll also hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

The situation in the Middle East is moving very quickly and like any geopolitical event, it’s difficult to anticipate where it’ll go next. US crude oil prices surged 35.6 per cent last week and at the beginning of this week, prices jumped above US$100. What might this mean for inflation, interest rates and financial markets?

The Middle East will be the key focus in the coming week, as investors consider what a protracted conflict could mean for energy prices (both oil as well as natural gas), and in turn inflation, central bank policy settings, and economic growth.

One of the biggest talking points for investors in the past year or two has been the increasingly concentrated nature of the US sharemarket. The top ten stocks represent a whopping 38 per cent of the index today, compared with 20-30 per cent historically. A few mega-cap stocks now have a huge influence over where the world’s biggest market (and therefore most of our retirement savings) is headed a...

The S&P 500 index in the US fell slightly during February, dragged down by higher-growth and technology stocks. However, it was an extremely strong month for many other global markets and assets. Japanese shares surged 10.4%, while UK shares rallied 6.7% and emerging market equities were up 5.4%. The ASX 200 in Australia rose 3.7%, while the domestic NZX 50 index was up 2.2% in February, its s...

It’s been a sluggish start to the year for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 has also been more volatile of late, having fallen for five of the past eight weeks. It feels like it could be another bumpy year, especially with the US midterm elections ahead. We might even see a bigger sell-off in the months ahead. That’s not something to be afraid of, and it doesn’t mean the market can’t put in ano...

The market reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be in focus this week, while President Trump is also set to deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Thursday's ANZ Business Outlook for February will be the key release here in New Zealand, while a plethora of NZX companies are set to announce results in the days ahead. Further afield, investors will be watch...

Inflation is well down from the multi-decade high of 7.3 per cent that prevailed a few years ago, but it remains stubbornly above that elusive two per cent level. We’re not the only ones grappling with pricing pressures, and there’s a growing chorus of commentators asking whether something more structural is at play. If three (or even four) per cent was new two per cent, what would this mean for i...

A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the tone and how the Official Cash Rate (OCR) track differs from the November MPS. That had the first hike pencilled in for early 2027, although markets see it coming later this year. Will the RBNZ bring it forward to match?

The local reporting season kicks off this week across the NZX, and we’ll get some useful insights into the state of the economy. These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or if it’s another false start like we saw a year ago. Here's what we'll be watching and why.

It was a very volatile week for markets, with a strong rebound on Friday flattering returns from many asset classes and masking some of the weakness. Growth stocks have been hit hardest, with the software sector in particular facing a sharp sell-off. We've also seen big moves in precious metals and crypto. Which asset classes have been most resilient amidst the volatility, and what should inve...

The first month of the year is behind us and despite what feels like a year's worth of market drama, the US sharemarket posted another healthy gain. It rose 1.4 per cent in January, a very solid return that was above the 1.1 per cent average for all of the January's since 1950. That bodes well for the balance of this year, according to the "January Barometer".

Markets will continue to digest the news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair this week, while monetary policy decisions loom in the UK, Europe and Australia. It will be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed on Friday for Waitangi Day. Ahead of that, we'll get the results of another dairy auction as well as the December quarter labour force report. The international...

There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2025, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. However, there was one in particular that stood out, because if investors didn't do this they left some significant gains on the table.

There's plenty to watch this week, including the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. However, investors will get the chance to refocus on what matters most for share prices, and that's corporate earnings. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including four of the so-called Magnificent 7 cohort. We'll hear from Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple this wee...

It’s been prediction season on Wall Street, with all the gurus consulting their crystal balls to firm up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 index will finish 2026. Let's take a closer look at how the market is expected to perform this year, how that compares with history, and how investors should think about these.

A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a 2.7% annual gain, which might this mean for the path of interest rates?

While almost every country in the world has been reducing interest rates from multi-decade highs, Japan has been doing the exact opposite. The Japanese economy isn’t as dominant as it once was, but it is critically important in terms of global financial markets, especially for foreign exchange and bond yields. We’ve seen some big moves in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yiel...

Will the OCR start to rise again this year, how might sharemarkets perform and where is the NZ dollar headed? Nobody has a perfectly working crystal ball, but its a useful process to go through to help firm up your thinking nonetheless. Despite the futility of trying to forecast where financial markets are headed, here's our contribution to the noise!