On Peace

A political deal to resolve the disputed 2019 presidential election was finally reached over the weekend. USIP’s Scott Worden says the agreement “is quite significant” because it will give the Afghan side “more political coherence to negotiate with the Taliban and, if implemented, it will show the Taliban they can’t divide Afghans.”

With coronavirus spreading in the Red Sea region, USIP’s Patricia Kim says Red Sea states don’t want to be forced to choose between major powers. “When things like the COVID-19 pandemic peak in fragile places,” says Kim, “this definitely requires cooperation between the United States and China.”

A “mixed” response from the international community is threatening a worst-case scenario for fragile states facing COVID-19. USIP’s Tyler Beckelman says countries need to recognize “the best strategy for defeating the virus is defeating it everywhere” and cooperate on aid in fragile contexts.

Coronavirus has led to a 70 percent decline in public protests worldwide compared to last year—but this doesn’t mean social movements are going away. “There are literally hundreds of other tactics … to express dissent while still following social distancing guidelines,” says USIP’s Jonathan Pinckney.

While USIP’s Susan Hayward acknowledges that religion has, at times, hampered public health, she notes religion has also been invoked “in ways that have brought meaning, that have mobilized people to respond to the needs of the vulnerable.”

Despite reporting no confirmed cases, USIP’s Frank Aum says, “It’s safe to say the virus is in North Korea,” and that the isolated nation is still trying to “maintain the visage of invulnerability” through missile tests and other military demonstrations—all while instituting drastic public health measures.

After three elections, Israel’s political crisis is reportedly coming to an end. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen explains that the focus has now shifted to the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying, “What you do often see in the face of these immediate crises is a lot of banding together and cooperation … the question is how long it holds afterwards.”

After the U.S. indictment of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, USIP’s Steve Hege looks at how the political crisis in Venezuela endangers vulnerable populations as well as neighboring Colombia amid the coronavirus pandemic.

As COVID-19 cases appear in the Middle East and Africa, USIP’s Nancy Lindborg talks about opportunities for peace amid the humanitarian and security risks posed by an outbreak. “The hope is that everyone uses this opportunity to put down their arms and think differently about conflict,” says Lindborg. 

As the coronavirus pandemic spreads in both countries, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed examines the obstacles facing Iraq’s newly appointed prime minister, as well as whether addressing the crisis might open the door for de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, saying, “I do hope that these unfortunate challenges still come with some opportunity.”

Idlib is the site of Syria’s largest displacement crisis since the conflict began nine years ago, with nearly one million displaced in the province. As the Assad regime continues to reclaim Idlib, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at the future for Syria, saying “the fact of the matter is that Syrians are terrified to live under Assad’s rule.”

Since 2001, Afghan women have assumed larger roles in society—becoming teachers, doctors and government officials. With intra-Afghan talks expected to begin this month, USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi says it’s important the Taliban “accept the reality that today’s Afghanistan is very different from the country they ruled” when it comes to women’s rights.

The visit did not yield a bilateral trade agreement, as many hoped it would. But USIP’s Vikram Singh says that despite the trade impasse, the trip did deliver defense and energy deals and reinforced “the symbolism of this partnership continuing to grow basically as it has for the entire 21st century.”

Amid news of an interim U.S.-Taliban deal, Afghanistan’s election commission announced President Ashraf Ghani has won reelection—a result his opponent has openly rejected. USIP’s Scott Worden warns this kind of political infighting weakens the government’s negotiating position ahead of possible intra-Afghan talks, saying “the Taliban profit from political chaos.”

As Arab Gulf states and Turkey ramp up their competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, USIP’s Payton Knopf says the increased attention “has tended to exacerbate some of the internal tensions and political insecurities” in Ethiopia and Sudan—two states undergoing democratic transitions vital for regional stability.

After direct military confrontations between the Assad regime and Turkey in Syria’s Idlib province, USIP’s Dr. Elie Abouaoun explains how the Turkish and Russian governments are trying to contain the fallout, saying “I do not think any party has an interest right now in provoking a full-blown escalation.”

Discussing the Trump administration’s long-awaited peace plan, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says that although the proposal nods toward a two-state solution, the details leave one “hard pressed to see how it serves as a formula or basis for bringing both parties back to the table.”

At the Berlin Conference last weekend, participants reached a “gentlemen’s agreement” to halt the influx of arms from international actors into Libya’s conflict. USIP’s Thomas Hill says that while “there’s probably something for both pessimists and optimists,” the lack of any formal agreement means the results are “tenuous at best.”

USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg explains how U.S.-Iran tensions could exacerbate state fragility and hamper longstanding peacebuilding efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying, “All of this can be put at risk with the current tensions as both countries really fear becoming collateral damage.”

Iran has stated that—barring a U.S. response—the missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq will be the only immediate retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says this latest development offers an exit from further escalation, but “this doesn’t mean the broader tensions and the slower, more simmering tensions … will end.”

Following the attempted siege of the American Embassy in Iraq, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says the U.S. must increase its presence in Iraq because it “doesn’t have the choice but to increase its investment … so that the expansion of Iranian influence is basically contained.”

This year has seen an extraordinary rise in people power. Despite significant coverage of these movements, many misconceptions about how they work persist. USIP’s Maria J. Stephan addresses those myths and says, “The most defining variable of successful nonviolent movements is large, diverse and sustained participation.”

With North Korea’s self-imposed, year-end deadline for a nuclear deal looming, USIP’s Frank Aum says that while complete denuclearization isn’t likely in the near term, “all of the components of a good-enough interim nuclear deal are there, but both sides need to be flexible on some of the harder issues.”

In Colombia, protesters are demanding that President Ivan Duque address concerns over economic inequality, corruption, the Venezuela crisis and implementation of the 2016 FARC peace accord in what USIP’s Steve Hege calls the country’s “largest mass mobilization in four decades.”

Returning from the Halifax International Security Forum, USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg explains why the growing number of “people power” movements around the world have left her optimistic, saying “the notion of what constitutes national security continues to evolve…security includes governments that are responsive to the needs of their people.”