Notes on the Week Ahead

In the golden age of Hollywood, before the era of special effects, the success of a movie depended to a large extent on the storyline. One frequently used construct was the wrongful arrest of an innocent person.

All my life, I have been running against clock and calendar. I pretend to hate the frenzy and wish for more flexibility. But the truth is, I couldn't really work any other way. Deadlines force decisions. Deadlines require efficiency. Deadlines provide clarity.

Friday's Jobs report was essentially "wheels down for landing" on this long economic expansion, as the economy tries to navigate a smooth transition from 3% growth to a more sustainable 2%. However, given the volatility in the data, the passengers are understandably nervous.

Should an overweight man, with elevated cholesterol, eat a 32-ounch steak? Probably not, you might say. Provided he stays comfortably seated in his chair, no short-term problems may ensue. However, in the long run, it is clearly risky and, even in the short run, some obviously negative effects are being masked by the fact that he is sitting, rather than engaging in vigorous exercise.

One of Charles Dickens’s most lovable characters, Mr. Micawber, offered a young David Copperfield sage advice on personal financial management. Spending sixpence under your income causes no problems, but spending sixpence over can set you on the road to ruin.

In the last scene of Sydney Pollack's beautiful movie "Out of Africa," two lions gather on the hero's grave and look out at the cattle on the plain below. It is a princely scene — an assumption that the animals below are somehow the property of the lions, to consume whenever they feel hungry. For some reason, I was reminded of this scene this week, as politicians from both parties decried what the...

It is possible, I am told, for a person to function perfectly adequately for an entire day without caffeine. For myself, however, I need a large cup of Joe first thing in the morning, followed soon after by a second. In 2018, the American economy received a very strong cup of coffee, extra-bold Colombian, in the form of a tax cut.

Last weekend, I installed a new microwave in our kitchen. Based on the directions, it was going to be easy -remove the old microwave from the wall plate, replace it with the new one, and then use two anchor bolts to secure the unit to the cabinet above.

In his Notes on the Week Ahead, Dr. David Kelly examines the economic implications of the government shutdown, the peak of the earnings season, the January employment report, Chinese trade talks, weakening global PMIs and the first Fed meeting of the year.

There is a famous old John Wayne movie, set in Ireland, called The Quiet Man. It is, to be honest, not a particularly authentic portrayal of my native land, but the plot is strong and includes a long drawn out brawl between Sean Thornton (played by Wayne) and his brother-in-law, Squire Danaher.

The week ahead will be dominated by fourth-quarter earnings reports and increasing concerns about the damage being inflicted upon the economy by the government shutdown.

Last summer, as part of my long-standing goal to get more cultured, I read the novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. While many people make fun of its extravagant length, it is actually a great yarn, full of wisdom, intrigue and the flavor of old Russia.

Every stock market correction is different, but the equity market swoon of the fourth quarter of 2018 seems particularly unusual in the disconnect between the fundamental forces driving markets and the change in markets themselves. 

We wanted to wish you a happy holiday season from all of us here on the global Market Insights strategy team. Please tune in again next week for a new Notes on the week ahead.

Rudyard Kipling’s first qualification for manhood could equally be applied to the nerve required of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who meet this week to decide whether to hike interest rates for a fourth time this year.

Like the fishermen of old, many investors today are looking at relatively crude indicators such as recent market volatility or the shape of the yield curve to forecast the path for the U.S. economy and they have become worried by the behavior of both in recent weeks.

The week ahead will be dominated by a reassessment of risks which, for the most part, appear to be diminishing. In particular, markets should react well to some easing in trade tensions and greater clarity on U.S. monetary policy.

"Hey, Toreador!" Buzz yells. "She signals. We head for the edge … and the first man who jumps is a chicken!" In 1955's "Rebel Without a Cause", the most celebrated movie in James Dean's short career, two troubled teenagers drive stolen cars through an alley of headlights and off a bluff near Los Angeles. 

This week, families and friends all over America will be sitting down together to celebrate Thanksgiving. In many homes, there is a tradition of going around the table, with each person saying what they are thankful for. In most homes, I suppose, the answers will be genuine, sometimes funny and sometimes profound. However, if at any table, prosperity is mentioned as a blessing, it should be recogn...

The October unemployment rate, at 3.7%, is at its lowest level since December 1969. Continued unemployment claims last week, at 1.623 million are at their lowest since July 1973. And job openings at the end September totaled over 7 million, which, except for August, amounted to their highest level on record going back to 2000.

The week ahead will be a busy one as investors process the implications of recent strong economic reports, the Federal Reserve holds its seventh FOMC meeting of the year and the nation votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday.

A financial nor'easter blew through global stock markets in October. Through last Friday, the S&P500 had fallen 8.7% for the month, the MSCI EAFE had declined by 9.9% and the MSCI EM had dropped by 10.3%.

Last Friday, as we often do on Fridays, my wife and I had dinner at Legal Sea Foods in the Burlington Mall and afterwards, we strolled around the mall, ice cream in hand, watching the comings and goings.

It’s early Monday morning and I have writer’s block. This is a little frustrating because I should have lots to write about. Last week saw a surge in volatility with the S&P500 falling by 5% on Wednesday and Thursday combined. Even with a rally on Friday, large cap U.S. stocks have now fallen in seven of the last eight sessions.

The great detective stands in front of the drawing-room fire, twirling the ends of his moustache as he ponders the Case of the Rising Rates. He knows who committed the crime – but what to do about it? He surveys the four suspects arrayed on the sofas before him, Inflation, Growth, The Deficit and The Fed. He clears his throat.