Notes on the Week Ahead

There’s an old saying that the reason some people bash their heads against the wall is because it feels so good when they stop. Many economists would see last week’s trade news in the same light, judging that Brexit, the threatened abandonment of NAFTA and the trade war with China were all populist-driven negatives for the global economy.

For investors, the market environment seems to be in a holding pattern, with little movement in economic fundamentals and a slow melt up in equity prices. For those trying to while away the time until there is some genuine change, there are some key questions that will be addressed by events in the week ahead.

The week ahead will be a busy one for economic data, with global PMI numbers on both manufacturing and services and U.S. readings on Light-Vehicle Sales, International Trade and Consumer Sentiment. However, as is usually the case in the first week of the month, the most important numbers will be contained in Friday's Jobs report.

This week, most Americans will be hopefully be focused on family and food rather than the economy and markets. However, at some stage over the long weekend, a few may decide that they have had a sufficient helping of both pie and relatives and be looking for a distraction.

America’s finances have been deteriorating for almost two decades. In October 2000, the Treasury Department announced a budget surplus for the just-ended fiscal year of $236 billion or 2.3% of GDP. The federal debt amounted to just over $3.4 trillion or 34% of GDP.

My weight never changes. For pretty much all my adult life, I have looked down at the same small range of numbers on the bathroom scales. ... Much the same could be said of inflation in recent decades.

Last week, the U.S. economy saw a sudden and definitive transition and settled into a path of slower growth.

The next few days will see a blizzard of news impacting financial markets. For investors, the most logical approach may be to look at the headlines one at a time and then see how they can be linked together in constructing a view of the investment environment.

The Tax Act of 2017 was a bit like a pair of speedy running shoes for U.S. corporate earnings. It allowed for a short-run burst of strong year-over-year gains. However, since the start of this year, these gains have plateaued and earnings growth is likely to be very slow going forward.

Entering the fourth quarter of the year, nothing seems easy for investors either and there are a number of issues that are making it difficult for markets to move higher from here. However, it is important to recognize any softening in these impediments to progress.

The financial environment facing U.S. investors in the year ahead will involve some very close calls.

My eyesight isn’t what it used to be. It’s not quite as bad as my wife thinks it is, but if I’m watching a football game or trying to read slides from the back of a room, I now don a pair of specs.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will conclude its September policy meeting. Futures' markets have priced in a high probability that they will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and this is likely what they will do. However, there are at least six good reasons why they shouldn't.

In my admittedly conservative opinion, modern rackets have diminished the game of tennis as a spectacle. Booming serves from both opponents have led to fewer competitive games, with many sets turning into a rather dull march to six-all, ending in a tiebreaker. Now, there isn't any need for a tiebreaker in analyzing the long-run prospects for the U.S. economy since it really isn't a close call.

In America today, there is an obsession with how to stimulate demand, with fiscal policy, monetary policy and currency policy all being deployed to rev up the economic engine. However, America is facing a demographic pothole, and unless we fill it, growth will be mediocre, at best, regardless of how we try to stoke demand.

In days of yore, the sight of seagulls wheeling over an inland forest or fields was taken as a sure sign of a storm at sea. In a similar vein, last week, many investors took the sight of an inverted yield curve as a sign of impending recession.

I have always been a middle-distance runner. I think this serves me well today as, while many strategists and financial advisors talk about investing as a marathon, it is essentially a middle-distance discipline.

The economic recovery that began in 2009 has proven its endurance many times and is now the longest expansion in history. Our base case forecast is that it will continue into 2020 and probably beyond.

The week ahead, like last week, will be crammed with important market-moving events and data points. The challenge for investors will not be in predicting instant market reactions to this new information but rather in understanding how it could change the investment landscape going forward.

The formula in Hollywood today lacks imagination. It's all about remakes and sequels. Financial markets, too, are seeing a series of sequels and a few are opening this week.

In the financial landscape of 2019, the Federal Government and Federal Reserve are playing the parts of over-indulgent grandparents, the markets are cast as the over-stimulated grandkids and investors are left with the role of responsible adults, having to make rational choices and knowing that they will eventually have to deal with the consequences of too much stimulus.

On Wednesday and Thursday of this week, Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, will deliver his semi-annual testimony to Congress on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. As he prepares, while he will focus on the clarity of his message, he may well be distracted by the potential reaction of political and market audiences.

My wife, Sari, is an excellent cook and sometimes, when I return from a long day, I'm met at the front door by the delicious scent of freshly-baked chocolate-chip M&M cookies. The problem is, with a pair of cookies eaten but a big pile of them still smiling up at me, can I stop at just two? The Federal Reserve faces a similar dilemma when it comes to rate cuts.

I should state, at the outset, that I do not profess to have any deep understanding of quantum mechanics. However, the U.S. bond market and the U.S. stock market seem to coexist in alternative realities today.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will hold its fourth meeting of the year. The Fed is not ready to change interest rates yet.