NonProphets

Episode 102 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the upcoming US presidential election, including the elements of Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys" system and the interplay of facts and narrative, before making their predictions. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/02/2024). (Intro: The Taxpayers - Everything is Awf...

Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/20/2023). (Intro: Jonathan Richman & The Modern Lovers - I Have C...

Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/10/2022)

In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in Latin American politics (23:22); what Jair Bolsonaro...

In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value of cognitive diversity in intelligence work (2:04);...

Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the possibility of some form of escalation (41:26). As...

In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure 4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions) 6:00 Will the pandemic fade? 12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift? 16:45 The conflict in Ukraine 27:15 Turkey – Erdogan and the economy 33:30 US domestic poli...

Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final predictions (38:34). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com....

Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman talk about where Atief's family should move and why

Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again . We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste meant by the phrase "the joy of being wrong" (8:35);...

Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast hurricanes (04:45); what a "spaghetti plot" is (1...

Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster reform in the US Senate (44:45). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonpr...

Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of the 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for the Trump administration (Episode 16), and look forward at how the Biden will compare (5:00); give their...

Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are any good (14:04); the paranoid style in American politics (21:31); whether Joe Biden can govern a divided...

Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects of the pandemic on the results (30:55). They close by giving their electoral votes predictions (49:05)....

Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe vs. Wade (47:42) and a possible return to the Lochner Era (54:32). As always, you may reach us at nonpro...

Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/18/2020)

Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to school (05:40); the CDC CASPER household survey an...

Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed. Atief's view from the heartland (Missouri) (4:50), Scott's view of the Romanian response and Robert's...

Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't Jared unleashed sooner? (50:57). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonp...

Episode 82 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what makes President Trump a demagogue (07:48); whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues (1...

Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which they suspect the selection will be chosen (23:58), what is an "ecosexual" as opposed to an "echosexual...

Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we and the media understand about Trump's conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine, and where the...

Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting in a post-Trump world, (38:30), The indefinite Presidency (44:48), Predicting the next week (57:10). A...

Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public opinion (33:05); whether Mitch McConnell could prevent...