Nomura – The Week Ahead

Focus swings back to the Middle East, while we keep an eye out for 2 central bank meetings and key data ahead. In the US, we preview US CPI, retail sales and the Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, we touch on UK GDP data, and discuss politics in the UK and France. In Asia, we share our forecasts for key monthly activity and Q2 GDP data in China, inflation in India, and GDP growth in Singapo...

Following the Sintra Central Banking Forum, we discuss the ECB and Fed outlooks, and the impact of the latest labour market data on the latter. Fed Chair Warsh remains steadfast in avoiding forward guidance, but we see dovish hints in some of his comments. We look at the change in ECB rhetoric and softer inflation data which may signal only one more rate hike. In China, we focus on upcoming inflat...

Tracking second-round inflation effects from oil, and a second round of USD strength. In the US, we examine the latest inflation clues, the Fed outlook and the coming payrolls report. In Europe, we preview the central bank gathering in Sintra, the ECB outlook and June inflation data. In Japan, we look at key activity data and policy developments, both monetary and fiscal. Across Asia, we preview P...

New Fed Chair Warsh moved markets meaningfully – we discuss how to think about US monetary policy from here. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair caused a big reaction in markets; we outline what to expect from US monetary policy from here. In Europe , we look at the increasing divergence in our ECB and Bank of England rate calls.  In Asia, we discuss Bank Indonesia's recent hikes and the upc...

Dr. Leslie Teo, one of our eminent speakers at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA), discusses all things AI. Dr. Leslie Teo talks about his views on where economic value from AI is created over the long term and the monetization of large AI capex … as well as his thoughts on productivity gains to boost economic growth and where things stand on the 'job apocalypse" debate.  

This week, we expect on-hold decisions by the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI, but hikes by BOJ, BSP and CBC. We expect the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI to all keep policy rates unchanged. By contrast, we see the BOJ, BSP, and CBC as likely to hike at a measured pace. Statements will be non-committal across the board, and all eyes on Fed Chair Warsh who will li...

Eminent speakers at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia – Dr. Ng Eng Hen and Sir Richard Moore – discuss geopolitics, US-China relations, and the Middle East conflict. Dr Ng Eng Hen, formerly Singapore's Defence Minister, shares his thoughts on shifts in US policies and the implications for Asia. Sir Richard Moore, senior strategist at Sixth Street and former MI6 chief, weighs in on prospects of a lo...

Uncertainty in the Middle East continues, as key central bank meetings approach. In the US, we examine the resilience of the economy and preview the upcoming CPI report. In Europe, we review recent inflation data and explain why we expect an ECB rate hike next week. In Japan, we preview the Q1 GDP report and take a close look at the BOJ. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Jap...

We discuss the economic impact and investment opportunities of geopolitical transitions, China shock, and the AI revolution reshaping Asia. At the sidelines of Nomura's Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) in Singapore, we highlight key takeaways from our new anchor report " Asia Rewired ." Shifts like the AI revolution and trade realignment are rewiring Asia, creating winners and losers as well as invest...

This week, geopolitical tensions may be cooling but the fallout is rising with growth, inflation and central bank reactions evolving rapidly. We look ahead to the US labour market data and the ongoing hawkish shift in Fed communications. In Asia, we preview the RBI's next meeting and look ahead at inflation data around the region. In Europe, we discuss what factors – such as inflation expectations...

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We  preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, i n a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of A...

This week, i n the US, we examine the health of the consumer and the challenges facing incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. In Europe and the UK, we examine UK politics, key incoming data and ECB communication. In Japan, we discuss economics and geopolitics, with the visit from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Japan and China, touch...

This week,  in the US, we assess the latest strong/weak labour market data and look ahead to next week's inflation print. Politics is in focus in Asia, ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and following India's state elections, with inflation data also due in both China and India. In Europe, we also discuss local politics in the UK and the recent changes to our ECB and BoE rate calls.   Chapters: US: 2:0...

This week, i n the US, we recap the FOMC meeting and key data and look ahead to the coming Payrolls report. In Europe, we review the ECB and BOE policy announcements and outlook, and preview central bank meetings in Sweden and Norway. Across Asia, we preview earnings data in Japan and the upcoming central bank meetings in Malaysia and Australia. And in a bonus special interview, Jon Cohn discusses...

This week, we  preview decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BOE, but expect no fireworks. In Asia, the BOJ may sound hawkish but BOT is likely dovish. In a special segment, our head of Global Macro Research, Rob Subbaraman, argues that the bark of central banks will be bigger than their bite. Chapters: US: 2:10; Europe: 8:37; Japan: 15:48; Asia: 20:28; Central Banks Special Segment: 22:48

This week, we discuss our views on the ceasefire from a US perspective, the latest from the Fed, and fiscal policy in Europe. Rate decisions in Indonesia and Philippines are the focus in Asia, with a hike seen from the latter . We preview key UK labour market and inflation data, and European surveys, ahead of the BoE's April meeting . Chapters: US: 1:43; Asia: 10:20; Europe: 17:03

This week, we discuss our views on the ceasefire from a US perspective, the latest from the Fed, and fiscal policy in Europe. We preview key data such as China's Q1 GDP and India's March CPI, as well as the MAS decision . We feature our latest special reports on why China is looking resilient and whether Asian central banks will hike rates or not. Chapters: US: 1:51; Europe: 9:37; China: 15:41; As...

This week, we look back at the effects already being felt across the global economy. In the US, we preview employment and inflation releases, and outline why we pushed back the timing of our Fed cut expectations. In Europe, we discuss the latest inflation data, how this shock differs from 2022, and the political response to recent developments. In Asia, we note that the shock is evolving into broa...

With geopolitics and the US economy in focus at our Central Bankers' Seminar, we are delighted to bring two expert speakers to the podcast. Former Fed Governor and NEC Chair Lael Brainard discusses the outlook for the US economy and the path for the Federal reserve. Economic historian and geopolitical expert Niall Ferguson gives his views on the Iran war and how it will impact the geopolitical lan...

This week, The Middle East conflict remains front and centre. In the US, we discuss the conflict and the health of the consumer and preview the March Payrolls report. In Europe, we compare the spike in oil and gas prices with the 2022 experience and examine recent survey and coming inflation data. Across Asia, we examine how the Middle East crisis is impacting China and Japan, and preview key data...

This week, we discuss our views on the policy signals from recent decisions by the Fed, ECB and BOE. In the Middle East, we continue to monitor  the impact of the Iran conflict on their respective economies, and any signs of possible de-escalatio, or not. We also have a s pecial segment with Craig Chan, our global head of FX strategy, discusses which currencies could be vulnerable versus those tha...

This week, we preview central bank policy responses amid the elevated uncertainity in the Middle East.  In the US, we see the economy as relatively insulated from Middle East turmoil and discuss likely FOMC communication next week. In Europe, we discuss the risk of earlier ECB rate hikes and delayed Bank of England rate cuts Across Asia, we expect a less dovish tone from Bank Indonesia, more hawki...

The markets are fixated on the Middle East, especially on how rising energy prices will impact inflation. We see challenges for the larger energy importers in Asia and Europe, and now expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged in March. In the US, we also discuss the downside miss to February's labour market data and preview next week's inflation print. Chapters: Middle East: 1:53; US: 11...

This week, we discuss US tariff policy and geopolitical risks in Iran while the US jobs report is on tap.  We also preview the UK Spring Statement, the NPC meeting in China, and inflation data in Asia. Finally, we have a s pecial segment with Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist, on why he remains positive on the Japanese stock market. Chapters: US: 2:25; UK: 9:20;  Asia: 13:45; Japan Specia...

This week, we examine coming US inflation and labour market data, and the Fed outlook following a hawkish set of minutes this week. In Europe, we discuss reports that President Lagarde could be leaving the ECB early and consider the growth and inflation outlook for the region. Across Asia, we preview the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand policy meetings, and examine key coming data in India, Japa...