Odd Bird

New Horizons Investment

Business EN ↓ 90 episodes

This podcast is designed to introduce new investors to investing.

Author

Odd Bird

Category

Business

Podcast website

podcasters.spotify.com

Latest episode

Jul 8, 2026

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Episodes

Nomad Investment Partnership Letters to Partners 2001–2014 08.07.2026

This episode discusses Nomad Investment Partnership letters, written by Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria between 2001 and 2014, documents the firm’s transition from seeking "cigar butt" bargains to holding high-quality, permanent assets. The authors advocate for an absolute return orientation and emphasize the necessity of investor patience as a competitive advantage over short-term market participants...

Delta: The Gap Between Quality and Opportunity 06.06.2026

This episode explores Delta, the gap between business quality and investment attractiveness. The Equity Integrity Score (EIS) measures whether a company is structurally sound through factors like capital allocation, revenue quality, and moat strength, while my ranking system focuses on what I would actually buy. By comparing the two, Delta reveals where the numbers and my convictions diverge. Smal...

The Equity Integrity Score - Expansion Version 03.06.2026

This 19 minute episode introduces the Equity Integrity Score (EIS), a framework designed to separate genuine business compounding from structural equity decay. This is the expansion version looking at over 135+ stocks. Rather than focusing solely on growth, EIS evaluates four core pillars: ROIC stability, revenue quality, dilution discipline, and capital allocation integrity. The central idea is t...

The Equity Integrity Score: Measuring Structural Compounding vs. Decay 28.05.2026

This episode introduces the Equity Integrity Score (EIS), a financial framework designed to distinguish between genuine long-term compounding and superficial growth. This system evaluates a company’s structural durability by measuring four key dimensions: return on invested capital stability, revenue quality, ownership dilution, and capital allocation. By identifying forces of equity decay like ag...

Institutional Anomalies and The Contrarian Playbook Q1 2026 15.05.2026

This podcast discusses significant investment shifts among prominent hedge funds and institutional managers during the first quarter of 2026. These records highlight aggressive portfolio expansions into volatile sectors, such as artificial intelligence infrastructure and distressed retail stocks. Key players like Oaktree and Greenlight Capital executed massive percentage increases in specific posi...

Adobe: The Infrastructure Layer of AI Creativity 07.05.2026

This episode argues that the market is misjudging Adobe’s future by viewing artificial intelligence as a threat to its core business. Instead of succumbing to creative commoditization or pressure from open-source models, the company is positioned to become the essential infrastructure layer for an impending surge in global content. By integrating the Firefly engine into existing professional workf...

Strategic Equity Deep Dives: Analysis of Market Moats and Asymmetry 25.04.2026

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of 20 public companies, evaluating their business models, market positioning, and financial health. The podcast examines established technology and service platforms like Airbnb, Salesforce, and Uber, categorizing them by their ability to generate consistent cash flow and leverage network effects. Each profile highlights a "variant perception," contra...

The Quality Stack: A Comparative Investment Hierarchy 20.04.2026

This episode provides a comprehensive investment analysis of high-quality software and retail businesses, focusing on their long-term durability and current market sentiment. The podcast categorizes elite technology firms like Adobe and Salesforce as essential infrastructure, evaluating how artificial intelligence and shifting enterprise budgets impact their pricing power and growth potential. Bey...

Intelligence as Energy Optimization: The Cost of Thinking 18.04.2026

This podcast explores a paradigm shift in artificial intelligence from raw computational power toward a biological model of metabolic efficiency. By implementing a "digital chemistry" layer, AI can move away from intensive brute-force processing and toward a system that utilizes internal states to regulate energy use. Key signals such as curiosity, fatigue, and uncertainty allow the software to dy...

The Art of the Exit: A Systematic Selling Framework 13.04.2026

This podcast outlines a systematic selling framework modeled after the behaviors of elite "super investors" like Warren Buffett and Michael Burry. This strategy emphasizes scaling out of positions in layers rather than exiting all at once, moving through five distinct phases based on holding time and percentage gains. By establishing predetermined sell triggers, the framework helps investors remov...

Decision Quality: A Framework for Process-Driven Performance 12.04.2026

This episode describes a four-level framework designed to help individuals separate decision quality from the unpredictability of luck. By using a quadrant system to categorize results, the methodology encourages moving past simple wins and losses to evaluate if a choice was optimal based on the information available at the time. The goal is to eliminate hindsight bias and emotional storytelling b...

The Mispriced Odds Probability Framework 10.04.2026

This episode describes the Formula × Catalyst framework, a disciplined investment methodology designed to identify where the market has miscalculated the probability of specific stock returns. This system combines a company’s structural setup with observable moving events to determine the likelihood of 2x to 10x gains rather than relying on popular narratives. The podcast categorize specific equit...

The Catalyst Matrix: A Framework for Strategic Stock Selection 28.03.2026

This podcast introduces an investment framework called The Matrix, a systematic method for evaluating stocks based on specific catalysts rather than mere speculation. This strategy, inspired by the principles of Michael Burry, categorizes market events into five distinct tiers ranging from high-impact corporate changes to negative risk factors. By assigning weighted scores to these tiers, investor...

The Crypto Power Law: A 12-Asset Portfolio Strategy 21.03.2026

This episode outlines a 12-asset crypto portfolio designed around the Power Wave trading strategy, which prioritizes market asymmetry over traditional diversification. This investment philosophy focuses on concentrating capital into a few high-probability winners, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, while maintaining smaller positions in speculative or emerging sectors. The podcast discusses how to cate...

The Power-Law Investing 19.03.2026

This episode explores the power law in investing, a principle stating that a tiny fraction of "outlier" successes generates the vast majority of market wealth. Unlike a standard bell curve where results cluster around an average, this model suggests that most stocks are irrelevant to long-term gains while a few provide asymmetric upside. To capitalize on this, the text recommends a 6% rule for pos...

The Mathematical Edge of Michael Burry 08.03.2026

This episode examines the mathematical framework behind Michael Burry’s investment success, arguing that his wealth is built on a repeatable process rather than just a few famous "big bets." By analyzing a sample of his trades, the author reveals an impressive 87% win rate driven by consistent, moderate gains of 30% to 40%. The core of Burry’s strategy relies on asymmetric returns, where he strict...

The Coil Spring - Is the Party Over? 07.03.2026

The "Goldilocks" era of easy gains and rapid rate cuts appears to be over. This episode suggests the market is a "coiled spring" of tension, where even a small catalyst could trigger a violent downward correction because the structural supports (passive flows and buybacks) are done. This podcast outlines a perspective of extreme overvaluation and structural fragility within the 2026 U.S. stock mar...

The Psychology of XRP 01.03.2026

This episode examines XRP not as a financial instrument, but as a case study in investor psychology and the behavior surrounding high-friction infrastructure. This podcast suggests that social proof and institutional-sounding terminology often create a false sense of certainty that masks the complex reality of market plumbing. Rather than destroying the asset, regulatory pressure and technical hur...

Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) February 2026 Checkpoint 21.02.2026

This is an episode on Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) which is a specialized real estate investment trust that manages high-end office spaces and media production studios for major technology and entertainment firms. This podcast discusses financial filings and market analyses, reveal a company facing significant structural challenges and financial distress due to high debt levels and a downturn i...

High-Conviction Macro Strategies and Portfolio Concentrations 18.02.2026

This episode discusses the recent strategic shifts and portfolio concentrations of five prominent hedge fund managers. Tepper is characterized as making a high-beta macro bet by leaning into Chinese equities, semiconductors, and cyclical industrials to signal global growth optimism. In contrast, Ainslie and ValueAct show heavy conviction in U.S. mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure, though they dif...

Molina Healthcare (MOH) February 2026 Checkpoint 15.02.2026

This episode examines Molina Healthcare's financial performance and strategic position as of late 2025 and early 2026. Investor Dr. Michael Burry compares the firm to a young GEICO, highlighting its efficient cost structures and disciplined management despite a significant drop in stock price. While Molina has successfully secured major Medicaid contracts in states like Florida and Idaho, it faces...

Palantir: The Heretic’s Guide to an AI 12.02.2026

This episode examines Palantir Technologies, questioning its identity as a true software company versus a labor-intensive consultancy. While the firm markets its Foundry and Gotham platforms as revolutionary operating systems, the source argues they primarily act as integration layers requiring expensive, manual customization by engineers. Financial analysis suggests Palantir has historically stru...

XYZ (Block, Inc.) 2026 Checkpoint 08.02.2026

This episode provides a comprehensive financial and operational profile of Block, Inc., primarily through its 2025 third-quarter SEC filing and various equity research reports. The podcast discusses the performance of the company’s two main ecosystems, Square and Cash App, while highlighting its strategic expansion into Bitcoin and buy now, pay later services via Afterpay. Financial analysts from...

Sink or SWIM? 07.02.2026

This episode offers a detailed examination of Latham Group, Inc., a prominent manufacturer of in-ground residential swimming pools and related accessories. The podcast discusses financial reports detail the company's transition from annual losses to recent net income growth, highlighting its strategic focus on converting homeowners to fiberglass pool materials. It also emphasize the risks of relyi...

SAM vs. TAP: Why the Cheap Beer Stock Isn’t the Real Value 01.02.2026

This episode discusses financial reports and investment analysis focused on the alcohol beverage industry, specifically comparing The Boston Beer Company and Molson Coors. Quarterly SEC filings for both entities detail their respective fiscal performance, including impairment charges and recent leadership changes. One report highlights a massive $3.6 billion goodwill impairment for Molson Coors, w...

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