Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 Amazon reported Q2 2026 results: net sales of $200.6B (+20% YoY) and operating income of $27.5B (+43% YoY). AWS accelerated to 37% growth — its fastest pace in 18 quarters — hitting a $169B annualized run rate. 💡 But net income of $62.6B was largely driven by a $53.4B non-operating gain tied to Amazon's Anthropic investment. ⚠️ Trailing-12-month free cash flow flipped negative to -$7.6B a...

Apple reported fiscal Q3 2026 results with record June-quarter revenue and EPS. 📊 Revenue hit $109.4B (+16% YoY), diluted EPS $2.02 (+29% YoY) — both June-quarter records. 💡 But gross margin of 50.1% included a ~2pp tariff refund benefit, and EPS included $0.11 from the same one-time item. 📈 iPhone, Mac, and Services all posted double-digit growth records, while iPad revenue fell 5.9% YoY. ⚠️ R...

📊 Deep dive into the BEA's June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, released July 30. Core PCE inflation cooled to 3.3% YoY (from 3.4%), with the monthly pace decelerating sharply to just 0.1%. Headline PCE actually turned negative at -0.1% MoM, driven by a $48.1B drop in gasoline spending. 💡 But beneath the surface, personal income growth stalled from 0.7% to 0.2% MoM, and the saving...

📊 The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth straight meeting. 🔥 But the vote split shifted sharply — hawkish dissent tripled from 1 to 3 members (8-1 to 6-3) versus April. 📉 June CPI eased to 2.6%, undershooting forecasts, yet 📈 inflation is projected to reaccelerate to 3.2% by Q4 2026. 💡 The Middle East energy shock and its second-round effects remain the key swing factor for G...

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%. Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged Middle East-driven energy price spikes could push inflation above 3% by year-end, but stressed limited evidence of second-round effects and continuing underlying disinflation. 📊 June CPI at 2.6%, below the April forecast 📉 Services inflation eased from 4.5% to 3.6% ⚠️ A minority of MPC members voted for a hike; risk...

A deep dive into the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' Q2 2026 GDP Advance Estimate. 📊 Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1 📈 Real final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerated from 1.7% to 3.9% ⚠️ The gross domestic purchases price index jumped from 3.6% to 5.7%, and headline PCE inflation rose to 5.1% 💡 Yet core PCE (ex food & energy) cooled from 4.4...

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 17, in a 7-2 vote. 📊 The real story is the vote split: zero members voted for a cut, while two (Greene and Pill) pushed for a 0.25pp hike. ⚠️ Middle East energy price volatility remains the dominant uncertainty. CPI eased to 2.8% in May but is expected to climb back above 3% later this year. 💡 A loosening labour market is containing second-roun...

Japan's Cabinet Office released the July 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey, showing the headline index at 34.9 (+1.1pt), the third straight monthly rise. The official assessment was upgraded from "weakening" to "showing signs of picking up." 📊 Employment sentiment (+1.7pt) led the gain — but the underlying shift reflects fading pessimism, not rising optimism. Durable goods...

Analysis of Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly international securities flow data (Jul 19-25, 2026). 📊 Foreign investors flipped to net buying Japanese equities (+¥912.1bn), sustaining a resilient stock market trend. 📉 But foreign selling of Japanese government bonds surged to -¥1,513.9bn, one of the largest weekly outflows this year. 💡 Japanese investors also turned net sellers of foreign...

📊 A deep dive into Microsoft's FY2026 Q4 earnings. Revenue hit $90.0B (+18%) and GAAP EPS reached $4.81 (+32%)—but non-GAAP EPS grew only 23% to $4.74, revealing reliance on one-time investment gains. 📈 Azure grew 43%, and commercial RPO surged 84% to $678B, showing robust cloud demand. ⚠️ Meanwhile, capex jumped 109.6% to $35.8B, and free cash flow fell 23.2%. 💡 We break down the numbers...

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his second FOMC press conference. 📊 FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% ⚠️ Inflation has stayed above the 2% target for 63 straight months 📈 Meanwhile AI-related capex surged nearly 20% year-over-year 💡 The biggest story: the Fed's quiet abandonment of forward guidance. Treasury yields rose to a top-decile move over the last two decades in just 42 days—wit...

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15 — a third straight hold. But the standout detail in these minutes: Middle East hostilities reignited in real time, right in the middle of Governing Council's deliberations. 📊 Headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May on gasoline, while core measures held near 2%. 📈 Q2 growth is expected to rebound to about 2.5%, and the Council said t...

Australia's June CPI slowed to 3.8% YoY from 4.0% in May 📉 But the RBA's preferred trimmed mean held flat at 3.6%, while the ex-volatile items CPI accelerated from 3.9% to 4.2% 💡 The headline slowdown was driven mainly by a fuel excise cut and falling oil prices, yet housing and services inflation remain sticky 🏠 We break down both sides of the story—and what it means for RBA rate cut...

📊 Deep dive into Visa's (NYSE: V) Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, released July 28, 2026. Net revenue hit $11.6B (+14% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS reached $3.32 (+11%), extending double-digit growth. But GAAP operating expenses jumped 19%, personnel costs surged 40%, and a $563M one-time severance charge drove GAAP net income down 6.5% quarter-over-quarter. 💡 Payments volume +10% and cross-border volume...

Deep dive into the June 2026 US Durable Goods Orders advance report released July 27 by the Census Bureau. 📊 Headline new orders rose just 0.3% to $334.8B, a modest rebound from May's 4.0% drop. 📈 But core capex orders (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) rose 0.9%, extending May's 1.9% gain for a second straight monthly increase. ⚠️ The headline's wild swings trace back to airc...

📊 Brazil's June IPCA rose just 0.16% MoM, down sharply from May's 0.58%. 📉 Core inflation (ex food & energy) also collapsed to 0.11%, hinting at broader disinflation. ⚠️ Yet the 12-month rate of 4.64% remains above the central bank's 4.5% ceiling. 💡 Administered prices (electricity tariffs) and sticky labor-intensive services remain a risk. We break down the real interest rat...

Deep dive into UPS (NYSE:UPS) Q2 2026 earnings. 📊 Consolidated revenue hit $22.8B, up 7.6% YoY. GAAP diluted EPS fell 53% to $0.71. 💡 But non-GAAP adjusted EPS rose 13.5% to $1.76 — the gap driven by $891M in after-tax transformation charges. 📈 Volume declined 3.7%, offset by strong pricing gains (+9.3% US Domestic, +18.9% International revenue per piece). ⚠️ Fuel costs surged 60.4% YoY; U.S. D...

Weekly macro digest covering Jun 28–Jul 5, 2026. Key highlights: US nonfarm payrolls +57K miss, BOJ monetary base -13.7% QT acceleration, Japan Tankan business sentiment surprise vs. profit plan collapse, Eurozone HICP flash 2.8%, UK mortgage approvals at 2.5-year low, Canada GDP +0.5% rebound. Full analysis with next week's event calendar. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/bfZ_XGjmf...

This week's global macro digest covers: US June payrolls +57K (well below trend), BOJ monetary base -13.7% YoY as QT accelerates, Eurozone HICP flash drops to 2.8%, Japan Tankan beats on sentiment but profit plans collapse. Plus next week's key events calendar for investors. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/rea0mDxmTb4

A deep dive into this week's three key US macro releases: DOL jobless claims (data unavailable due to technical error), EIA weekly petroleum status, and the Fed's H.4.1 balance sheet. We use BLS employment regime anomalies as a proxy for labor market signals, examine energy-driven inflation risk (CPI gasoline +28.4% YoY), and assess Fed liquidity conditions including reserve balances, RR...

The US Census Bureau released the May 2026 full manufacturing report on July 2. While durable goods orders fell 4.5% MoM on the headline, the drop was almost entirely driven by a 51.8% plunge in nondefense aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders (ex-aircraft, ex-defense) rose 1.4%, signaling resilient business investment. We break down shipments, unfilled orders, and inventory trends to give yo...

Deep dive into the June 2026 US Employment Situation report from BLS. Nonfarm payrolls came in at +57K — a sharp deceleration from May's +129K (revised down). But strip out leisure & hospitality's seasonal drag (-61K) and the underlying picture looks more resilient: professional services +36K, health/social assistance +47K, construction +11K. Unemployment ticked down to 4.2%. Wages +...

Deep dive into the Bank of Japan's Monetary Base data for June 2026, released July 2. The headline YoY change accelerated to -13.7% from -12.2% in May. BOJ current account balances contracted -16.4% YoY — the steepest decline in this tightening cycle. We analyze what this means for JGB yields, the yen, and the pace of BOJ balance sheet normalization. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be...

Deep dive into Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly securities flow data (Jun 21-27, 2026). Foreign investors sold ¥1.82T in Japanese equities and ¥494B in long-term bonds simultaneously — a rare dual-asset selloff. We analyze the structural drivers behind this move amid USD/JPY at 161.67, and what it means for Japanese markets going forward. ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/y9YVQA3Cq...