NAB Morning Call

Monday 12th January 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill...

Friday 19th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Australia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced...

Friday19th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets seem to be heading to the end of the year on a fairly steady note, with currencies little changed today and equities pushing higher . Bond yields are mixed, oil is nudging back above $60 a barrel, and silver’s up and down like a yo‑yo. For our final morning ed...

Thursday 18th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release...

Wednesday 17th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB A new rate call from NAB: the RBA will move rates higher twice in the first half of next year. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent before they dissect the latest non‑farm payrolls data from the US for October and November. Plus, the mixed picture in the latest globa...

Tuesday 16th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB China’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect...

Monday 15th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s a pivotal week for global markets as central banks take centre stage. The long‑awaited, up‑to‑date U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls report finally lands, just days after the Fed’s decision — a timing mismatch that leaves investors scrambling. In the UK, GDP figures arrive...

Friday 12th December 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . NAB’s trading division, headed by Tim McCaughey, facilitates trades requested by a range of clients, from hedge funds, through to corporates and pension funds. So how does it work? Tim says it works like a grocery store - they buy the...

Friday 12th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Australian government bond yields have been surging to multi year highs as speculation mounts about a rate rise early in the new year. But yields fell a little yesterday and overnight after weaker jobs numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields have fallen more widely a...

Thursday 11th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, it s third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary...

Wednesday 10th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (exp...

Tuesday 9th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The RBA meets today — no big moves expected, but markets are watching closely for hints about when rates might rise. Over in Europe, bond yields climbed after an ECB policymaker signalled that the era of easing is over and the next direction is up. Meanwhile in the U...

Monday 8th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s the RBA and the Fed this week. We know what to expect- the Fed is likely to cut rates, the RBA its likely to be on hold. We’re also expecting hawkish commentary, particularly from the RBA. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact on bond yields, with Aussies10...

Friday 5th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Australia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there...

Friday 5th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Bond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying o...

Thursday 4th December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week. Meanw...

Wednesday 3rd December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ ra...

Tuesday 2nd December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Japan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how m...

Monday 1st December 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB For all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on...

Friday 28th November 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, t...

Friday 28th November 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Thanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Aust...

Thursday 27th November 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Three central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready...

Wednesday 26th November 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equities are on the rise, with AI behind a chunk of it, helped by enthusiasm for Alphabet’s new chip, which can do marvellous thing apparently. But in US consumer-land demand is slowing, if September’s retail sales are anything to go by. Of course that was a wh...

Tuesday 25th November 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It might be thanksgiving this week, but it seems tech investors have their eyes set closer to Christmas, with renewed hopes of a December rate cut. Words from Christopher Waller added to the hope. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the moves in shares is quite a remarkab...

Monday 24th November 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Last week was a bad one for US equities and the Australian dollar. It was even worse for Bitcoin, but NAB’s Skye Masters says it recovered over the weekend, so if you believe it’s a bellwether for equities this week could get off to a better start. Equities had alrea...