NAB Morning Call

Monday 11th January 2021The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off in a very different place. The blue-wave wasn’t written in stone, but with control of the Senate the Democrats should find it easier to roll out more substantial stimulus measures, so does that mean the US economy will recover faster? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the response in the bond markets, with...

Tuesday 22nd December 2020You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particularly as Europe became the latest region to approve a vaccine. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through how sentiment has rapidly switched direction. Investors have tended to look through short term concerns for the optimistic longer-term outlook, when COVID-1...

Monday 21st December 2020There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the news will be good for risk assets helping equities recover and reflected in emerging market currencies. It’s a different story in the UK, of course, where the new strain of COVIDS-19 has seen London, large parts of southeast England and Wales...

Friday 18th December 2020The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at the point of no return. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there will be a deal in both instances, and the markets are priced accordingly. The US fiscal stimulus deal might mean politicians meet over the weekend, whilst UK MPs, already on their Christmas break, c...

Thursday 17th December 2020The US dollar slid overnight as US retail sales figures for November were released. The numbers “were grim” says NAB’s Gavin Friend on today’s Morning Call podcast. Sentiment turned more positive as the session progressed, with rising hopes that a fiscal stimulus deal is imminent. There’s also hope that a UK-EU trade arrangement is getting close, with Ursula von der Leye...

Wednesday 16th December 2020Equities have climbed higher in the US and in Europe on the hopes that two deals will be struck this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about the market response to a tweet from the BBC’s Nicholas Watt, suggesting there was a buzz around Brexit talks and a resolution could be close. There’s also renewed hope that the text for a fiscal stimulus deal will be agreed in the U...

Tuesday 15th December 2020The markets lost some of their mojo today. They kicked off well as the US starts its vaccination program, but the UK health secretary upset the apple cart by announcing that the rise in infections in and around London has been attributed to a new, faster-spreading variation of the virus. As NAB’s Ray Attrill point out, there is no suggestion that vaccines won’t be respons...

Monday 14th December 2020The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the aim is to have given the jab to 75% of the population by June. Even so, markets were a little subdued on Friday, as infection numbers continued to rise in the US and across Europe. Germany has announced its most pronounced lockdown so far, starting Wednesday. Meanwhile, Brexit hopes li...

Friday 11th December 2020Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there. NAB’s Gavin Friend says a no-deal could weaken the pound and soften the Aussie dollars chances of maintaining its position over 75 US cents. The ECB has announced more bond buying, whilst the EU has managed to broker a deal to pass its budget, including...

Thursday 10th December 2020As we recorded this morning’s podcast Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson were meeting over dinner to discuss the progress of the UK-EU trade deal. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril predicts there will be no definitive outcome tonight, but it remains unlikely that the UK will accept what the Europeans are putting on the table. The EU will also have difficulties tomorrow as it trie...

Wednesday 9th December 2020The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiators who remain a long way from reaching a deal. The chances are slim according to Michel Barnier, as Boris Johnston travels to meet Ursula von der Leyen Wednesday night (Thursday morning AEDST). No deal, plus the potential blocking of the EU budget by...

Tuesday 8th December 2020The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back. On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the decision to hold a face to face meeting between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen means the decision will be reached in coming days, not in the next few hours. We might see a version of the $908b fiscal stim...

Monday 7th December 2020US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the logic is that the disappointing numbers heighten the prospect of an agreement being reached on a fiscal stimulus deal. But its not there yet. It’s the same with a UK-EU trade deal. After cancelling talks on Friday they were back at it on Sunday,...

Friday 4th December 2020OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a cliff. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says they will also monitor progress and make adjustments accordingly. That’s helped the oil price this morning, but the two other deals on the table remain in limbo. Talks over the post Brexit EU-UK trade deal remain in...

Thursday 3rd December 2020The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine and will start jabbing people with it next week. That’s kept Brexit off the front pages in the UK, even though the pound has taken a sharp hit as talks don’t seem to have progressed much at all. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about Australia’s GDP numbers which technically mean we are out of recession, but unempl...

Wednesday 2nd December 2020There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's down to a number of factors – stronger than expected Caixin PMI numbers from China, fast-tracking of vaccines, news that US stimulus talks are back on the table and reports that UK-EU trade negotiations have entered the tunn...

Monday 30th November 2020The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English Channel. Over the weekend, though, reports suggest talks have been far more productive, tackling the last sticking point of fishing rights, and there’s a real possibility that a deal could be reached in the early part of this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Cat...

Friday 27th November 2020There are some questions over the numbers provided in phase three of the Astra Zeneca vaccine trial. NAB’s David de Garis says the concern is over the age of participations in the subset who achieved the highest level of efficiency. The makers claim a rerun of trials won’t slow progress, although some believe it could delay entry into the US. The ECB’s Philip Lane expresse...

Thursday 26th November 2020It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays. Vaccine hopes have been pushed aside after Wednesday’s post first-wave high for COVID fatalities in the US. There was also a string of disappointing data, including a rise in unemployment claims for the second week in a row. NAB’s Ray Attrill gives us his reaction to the FOMC meetings...

Wednesday 25th November 2020President Trump made an appearance before cameras today to boast about the rise in equities, with the Dow breaking 3,0000 for the first time. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril tells Phil Dobbie it’s in part down to the relief that the Biden administration has now been given access to the handover process for the White House. It’s mixed with continued optimism around vaccines, which...

Tuesday 24th November 2020Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce and easier to distribute. Yet the markets were cautious in their response, although equities are on the rise and tech stocks are taking a back seat. NAB’s David de Garis talks through the response, with the US dollar also spurred on by better than expe...

Monday 23rd November 2020NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through it, plus Josh Fryenberg’s plans to boost invest from larger corporations. Meanwhile, markets continue to respond to COVID-19 infection rates, punishing equities in the US, with growth switching to Europe. There’s been a spat between the US Treasury and the Fed with St...

Friday 20th November 2020Schools out for winter in New York as COVID cases in the US continue to rise, with the country passing a quarter of a million deaths from the virus. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Gavin Friend about how the markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook The short-term hit was demonstrated, however, by a sharp incre...

Thursday 19th November 2020Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news. On the positive side, Pfizer is set to apply for emergency authorisation for its COVID-19 vaccine. NAB’s David de Garis says you’d have expected the news to have created more of a risk-on mood but, on the negative side, infection rates continue to rise. The spike in South Australia, with the six day stat...

Wednesday 18th November 2020There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a move to government bonds. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this respite could be short lived, with the results of the Oxford vaccine trials imminent. Meanwhile, there seems to be less of a temptation to take an overly negative view despite the rising COV...