NAB Morning Call

Thursday 29th April 2021Excuse the American pluralisation, but “long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for the American economy, and the reason that rates won’t be lifting anytime soon, and the easing of bond purchases are, supposedly, also some way off. There were small movements in the market, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, mostly from the press conference rather tha...

Wednesday 28th April 2021Markets are treading water ahead of the FDOMC meeting tomorrow morning, but there’s been a sudden rise in bond yields in the US which, NBA’s Rodrigo Catril, suggests inflation is still a concern, as optimism around a vaccine driven recovery escalates. But inflation is less of a concern in Australia - we get the CPI numbers today, Rodrigo tells us what to expect. There’s al...

Tuesday 27th April 2021Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data, including the PMIs talked about in yesterday’s Morning Call. Data over the last 24 hour shas been a little more subdued, with Germany’s IFO survey pulled down by lower expectations, and the US durable goods orders softer after the cancellation of Boeing aircraft orders. Nonetheless, the m...

Monday 26th April 2021Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week, with a strong set of PMIs in the US and Europe, which helped push equities still higher in America. But how much is too much? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether some of this is being driven by a fear of missing out. Meanwhile, with all the positive news, how long can the Fed continue to argue the ne...

Friday 23rd April 2021Shares in the US have fallen this morning on news of a sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans. Although not officially released, NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how the rumour was enough to send shares falling, after a fairly positive start to the session. The ECB was asked whether they would follow Canada’s lead in tapering bond purchases sooner, but there won’t be...

Thursday 22nd April 2021The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year, bringing forward the expected date of rate rises and introducing tapering from next week. NAB’s David de Garis says markets were expecting a tapering announcement, but were taken by surprise by the size of the growth revision, with the country in the midst of...

Wednesday 21st April 2021There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now, with US stocks down, with smaller caps hit particularly hard. NAB’s Ray Attrill discusses whether this is all down to a revaluation of the speed of the economic recovery. Could the tightening of credit be responsible for this? It’s hard for businesses to recover without borrowing. There’s also discussion of yesterday’s RBA...

Tuesday 20th April 2021US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there does seem to be a habit for a selloff whenever equities climb above the S&P500 200-day moving average. Will it all bounce back? Well, the vaccine news remains positive, with big reductions on cases in countries where vaccines have been rolled out extensively. That’s why w...

Monday 19th April 2021There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace. Europe has picked up pace and now jabbed 20 percent of its adult population. The Fed’s Christopher Waller said the economy is “set to rip”, with 6.5 percent growth this year. Yet, despite all the positive news, we have been seeing a decline in bond yields. In today’s Morn...

Friday 16th April 2021The news was largely positive overnight. Retail sales in the US were better than expected, initial jobless claims were down, the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing Surveys were strong – yet bond yields fell sharply in the US, spreading across much of Europe. It’s not the response you’d expect. NAB’s Ray Attrill says bond analysts had been expecting a period of consolidation,...

Thursday 15th April 2021Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market. In fact, a four percent rise in oil has been a better indicator, along with the strength of the Aussie dollar. NAB’s David de Garis says we have sen a rotation out of the tech stocks, but the banks have generally been doing well, helped by better than...

Wednesday 14th April 2021It’s been a session with mixed messages. Inflation is showing up in data, including higher than expected CPI in the US yesterday. We’re seeing it in input prices in the NAB Business Survey too, Of course central banks continue to say that any rise will be transitory, but are the markets convinced? Meanwhile, the global recovery that will give rise to that inflation could b...

Tuesday 13th April 2021It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight, with bond auctions garnering a little less interest than last time, and more to come today. We also get CPI numbers for the US today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market is well prepared for a big jump in the yearly reading, but a significant upside surprise could raise questions about how transitory the rises are. Fed’s Bullard spok...

Monday 12th April 2021Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs, ahead of corporate earning this week and despite a rise in bond yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a lot of the optimism is being driven by vaccine optimism, as President Biden once again brings the dates of his vaccine targets forward. The spectre of rising inflation continues to hang over markets, particularly as PPI prices...

Friday 9th April 2021Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50. N AB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s unlikely to slow down the speed of the vaccine rollout, but it could have consequences in Europe. Jerome Powell offered little new when he spoke on an IMF panel overnight, talking down the...

Thursday 8th April 2021It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time. The FOMC said nothing that surprised markets, and Janet Yellen detailing how they would pay for the $2.25 trillion infrastructure package was met with a similar muted response. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests the markets are considering a bit of rebalancing, particularly when it comes to Europe. Even if they are slower to rec...

Wednesday 7th April 2021There were no significant market moves overnight. The US dollar has fallen a little further, bond yields are down and equities have cooled somewhat. NAB’s David de Garis says, maybe markets are taking Jerome Powell’s words to heart that it’s a long road ahead and the Fed is going to stay the course. That’s certainly the line echoed by the RBA yesterday even though, like the...

Tuesday 6th April 2021US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data. The ISM manufacturing read at the end of last week bounced back sharply, and the services number reached a new record high this morning. Plus, non-farm payrolls on Friday also punched the lights out. NAB’s Ray Attrill says even though shares responded, Treasury yields are actually lower than they were before this swa...

Thursday 1st April 2021Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobbie that most of the detail has already been released. And the response to the markets has clearly been favourable, with share prices reaching new highs overnight. Bond yields have also been rising. They also discu...

Wednesday 31st March 2021US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill how much of today’s movement can be attributed to end of month and end of quarter rebalancing? And how much of a reaction can we expect after Joe Biden announces his infrastructure plan later tonight – which could cost anything from US$2.2 to 4 trillio...

Tuesday 30th March 2021NAB’s Gavin Friend says, early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyone was talking about. But, as it became clear there was little further contagion, attention shifted to the floating of the Ever Given and the easing of lockdowns. The focus now, he says, is on price pressures, starting today as German reports preliminar...

Monday 29th March 2021There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this week. NAB’s David de Garis says this could account for some of the volatility we saw at the end of the week, with Goldman Sachs selling off $10.5 billion in stocks. Nonetheless, shares were up after a late in the session rally, which carried through...

Friday 26th March 2021It’s been another mixed session. NAB’s Gavin Friend says, on the one side there’s the tantalising prospect of an economic reopening in the northern hemisphere that is almost touchable, but there’s also the issues around vaccine production and, in Europe, concerns about how many people are prepared to take it. Equity markets are subdued, with another move away from tech stocks...

Thursday 25th March 2021There’s a realisation emerging, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, that even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role outs, the speed of recovery might be slower than envisaged. The political wrangles over vaccines supplies from the EU have added to this feeling, with a risk-off mood returning slowly to markets. Oil rose sharply as an oversized ship has blocked the Suez...

Wednesday 24th March 2021Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower than anticipated. The airline industry will feel some of the hurt, with European summer holidays likely to be off the agenda for most Brits. Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell were also guarded in their comments about the pace of recovery in the US, when t...