NAB Morning Call

Friday 17th September 2021There was a lot of movement overnight, with US equities falling, then regaining some of the losses in late trade. Most currencies fell against a rising US dollar, but even some of those were pared back as the session progressed. The fall in equities happened despite a rise in US retail numbers, when sales were expected to fall. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets clearly didn...

Thursday 16th September 2021There’s a little more optimism in the markets this morning, particularly in US equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s no overarching good news, suggesting there’s a strong element of ‘buying the dip’. Which could mean it’s all reversed tomorrow! In fact, the news out of China was largely negative, with industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sale...

Wednesday 15th September 2021Inflation in the US has slowed. Is this a win for those arguing it is all transitory? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what this means for the Fed and expectations of tapering. Market moves aren’t just a reaction to the US CPI, there’s also a risk-off mood driven by increasing cases of COVID in China which could cause further supply disruption. The Aussie dollar i...

Tuesday 14th September 2021Markets are a little mixed ahead of today’s US CPI numbers. But, just how important are these numbers when the Fed is far more focused on returning the country to full employment. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says supply-led inflation is allowing the Fed to be more accommodative for longer. Oil prices hit a six week high overnight, based on supply constraints and OPEC’s expect...

Monday 13th September 2021Talks between Biden and Xi on Friday added to market concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was the realisation of how long it would take to resolve issues, if ever. A US investigation into Chinese state subsidies also added to the malaise. On top of that, inflation (driven by supply constraints) and the speed of economy recovery remain two other major concerns. On the pr...

Friday 10th September 2021As NAB’s Gavin Friend vehemently predicted on yesterday’s Morning Call, the ECB has announced that they will cut back purchases under their Pandemic Emergency Programme. It reflects the optimism in Europe, which is not currently matched in the US, where equities are down on the realisation that the recovery is taking time, largely driven by supply constraints that could b...

Thursday 9th September 2021As expected, there were no moves from the Bank of Canada overnight, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says the same will not be true for the ECB tonight. They will cut back on bond buying, he says. In fact, it’s taken longer than expected. Currency markets have been fairly quiet, with most moves happening in equities, which have adopted a more cautious air. The Fed’s Beige Book ref...

Wednesday 8th September 2021The RBA is pushing ahead with its tapering of bond purchases, just as predicted on The Morning Call, but the bank is doing it in a very dovish fashion. There won’t be any further cuts in the quantity until February next year. Does that suggest the RBA is seeing a slower recovery? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril reads between the lines in the RBA statement yesterday, and looks at w...

Tuesday 7th September 2021The RBA meets today and the big question is, will they push on with their tapering schedule, reducing weekly purchases from $5b per week to $4b. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that they will, but there are concerns about the optics of making a move when the economy is in lockdown. The same question applies to the ECB later this week. Central banks have a direction they want to ta...

Monday 6th September 2021Non-farm payrolls grew well below market expectations I the US on Friday, and are certainly not the substantial progress the Fed has been looming for. Today on The Morning Call NAB’s Tapas Strickland looks at the market response to the payrolls numbers, and other signs that the global recovery might be slowing. Is it just a transitory phase? With that in mind, what will th...

Friday 3rd September 2021There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what the reaction will be if the numbers come in softer or stronger than anticipated? The weekly jobless claims overnight were encouraging, showing the lowest number of new claims since the pandemic began. Whilst equities and bonds have been relatively su...

Thursday 2nd September 2021The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, and overnight they only came half way to meeting expectations. NAB’s Gavin Friend says they rarely show any correlation with Friday’s numbers, but they do reflect concerns about growth inhibited by supply chain disruption. The ISM numbers also report...

Wednesday 1st September 2021Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to grow, actually fell. Add falling consumer confidence in the US and there;s plenty of numbers for those looking at the glass half full. Inflation reared its ugly head again too, with Europe’s CPI read much more than anticipated, which could present a headac...

Tuesday 31st August 2021It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will give us all a clearer understanding on the speed of the US jobs recovery. The continued high COVID case numbers, a drop in air travel and the threat of an EU ban on non-essential travel from the US haven’t dented market e...

Monday 30th August 2021The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning Call. Yet the markets still reacted. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what was said that was interpreted as a more dovish stance than expected. Can the markets maintain their optimistic outlook with a more cautious Fed, and with some data suggestin...

Friday 27th August 2021Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fairly limited. It certainly hasn’t knocked currencies and equities out of their trading ranges. No, the real focus today will be on what Jerome Powell says at tonight’s virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Even though more hawkish members of the Fed are push...

Thursday 26th August 2021Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's helped the Aussie dollar again today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment is being driven by infection rates starting to subside in the US. Phil Dobbie asks how fragile this optimism could be, if number were to rise again. The ECB’s Philip Lane pai...

Wednesday 25th August 2021The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Rising iron ore prices and zero new cases in China have also helped the Aussie, as the country gets to grips with life with COVID after lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says politicians are becoming more explicit about living with the virus, with Glady...

Tuesday 24th August 2021There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there are early signs that the rise in COVID cases in the US might have peaked, whilst the official approval of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines might encourage more people to come forward for the jab. PMIs told a less positive story, wi...

Monday 23rd August 2021Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the FOMC member has changed his hawkish stance, now admitting the Delta variant was dampening demand and that could slow the speed of tapering by the central bank. In Asia it’s a different story, with equities hit by fu...

Friday 20th August 2021There are more concerns over the global growth story, with commodity prices falling and the Aussie dollar one of the hardest hit currencies this morning. NAB’s David de Garis says China’s growth is one of the biggest concerns. Phil Dobbie asks whether expectations were set too high. COVID case rises continue to play on uncertainty, with another report showing how the efficac...

Thursday 19th August 2021The RBNZ didn’t push interest rates up yesterday, in light of the national lockdown. NAB’s David de Garis says the decision has been pushed back to October, all being well. It all depends on COVID numbers of course. Australia’s jobs numbers today are less relevant than usual given that they only covered the start of the NSW lockdown – the real numbers of concern will be in...

Wednesday 18th August 2021With New Zealand in lockdown will the RBNZ still push ahead with its expected rate rise today? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says central banks take a mid-term view, and the inflation and housing pressures remain, so it’s likely they will stick with the plan, but by no means certain. US markets took a confidence hit as retail sales and the NAHB housing index both came in much lowe...

Tuesday 17th August 2021Markets remain unsure as to the speed of the global recovery, but there’s mounting evidence that the full extent of the rebound will be delayed. That’s obviously the case in Australia, but the US we reported on Friday’s falling consumer sentiment, overnight the Empire State manufacturing index underwhelmed. This will increase the focus on US retail sales today. Overnight, t...

Monday 16th August 2021The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected consumer confidence report in the US. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this is the lowest read since the pandemic began. So, will treasury yields bounce back? Supply concerns have been exacerbated by the temporary closure of one of the world’s busiest contai...