NAB Morning Call

Thursday 30th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB What do the Fed, the Riksbank and the Bank of Canada all have in common? Well, they all just made rate policy announcements, but they have all refused to provide forward guidance, or even determine where inflation is heading. JB Were’s Sally Auld says ther...

Wednesday 29th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US tech stocks regained some of their losses yesterday, and bond yields are back up today.  Why? Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether the Deepseek fears were overblown. Taylor doesn’t think so, and tech bosses will have to have a convincing story to tell...

Tuesday 28th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US investors are reassessing the value of US AI related stocks on the realisation that China might have found a solution that can learn faster, at a lower cost, with less energy needs-and is available for all to share and use. If it lives up to the hyped it...

Friday 24th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Telcos, like Telstra and Optus, have been forced to change a lot over recent years. Their traditional revenues – providing phone calls and text messages – are disappearing, replaced by data access. But even that faces pressures, as peo...

Friday 24th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Strickland says he was much more conciliatory concerning his relationship with China, whilst reiterating that companies the world over have a choice to produce goods in America, at the world’s lowest tax rates, or face tariffs on exports into America. He also asked OP...

Thursday 23rd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There weren’t massive moves in any asset classes overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says bonds were range bound with very little in the way of data, and nothing concrete from any of President Trump’s more contentious plans, particularly tariffs. It seems a review of trad...

Wednesday 22nd January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s the first full day for Donald Trump in the White House and markets are already assuming tariffs will take a bit of time and perhaps won’t be as pervasive as he was initially letting on. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the market response, which has assumed, u...

Tuesday 21st January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Donald Trump is now the US President again. At his inauguration speech, on what he called Liberation Day, he outlined a slew of Executive Orders that he will sign in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says hours ahead of the inauguration the Wall Street Journal...

Monday 20th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US markets are closed today, so a quiet start to a potentially very volatile week, depending on what executive orders the new President issues in his first week in The White House. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was a reaction in the US dollar to a social media comment...

Friday 17th January 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on...

Friday 17th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what marke...

Thursday 16th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The biggest news this morning, the ceasefire in the Middle East, has had virtually no market response. Instead, bonds and equities have rallied on the positive CPI news from the US overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the softer number has increased the prospect of mo...

Wednesday 15th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to hel...

Tuesday 14th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves qui...

Monday 13th January 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipate...

Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s been a year of surprises. US exceptionalism has long been talked about, but this year it particularly exceptional, particularly in relation to the rest of the world. Growth has picked up, the dollar has strengthened, and the share market has repeatedly hit...

Friday 20th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB As we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but noth...

Thursday 19th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees ju...

Wednesday 17th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets were surprised overnight by the increased in UK wages. Alongside the weakness in European data lately, the yield spread between the UK and Germany is now at its highest level since the reunification of Germany in 1990. Other data was less surprising. US re...

Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US growth continues to lead the way. The latest PMIs showed services growth for Europe and the UK, but not as much as the US. In all cases, though, there’s a fall in the manufacturing PMI. The US strength helped push equities higher - with new highs for the NASDAQ an...

Monday 16th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show...

Friday 6th December 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Next year the Australian economy will see slow and measured improvement, according to NAB's CEO Andrew Irvine. It’ll be boosted, though, by the first rate cut, which Andrew says will have a significant impact on the psyche of busi...

Friday 13th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a 50bp rate cut, with a 25bp cut from...

Thursday 12th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equities pushed higher today as US CPI provided no surprises, or any reason for the fed to deviate from their expected rate cut next week. The Bank of Canada managed a 50bp rate cut yesterday, but it’s likely that cuts will be less frequent and smaller now,...

Wednesday 11th December 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, hence NAB is sticking with its expectati...