NAB Morning Call

Thursday 1st May 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets responded to a larger than expected fall in US GDP reported this morning. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters suggests, equity markets clawed their way back in late trade. Perhaps its because the fall was largely driven by short term factors, in particular a much higher t...

Wednesday 30th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB We are in the thick of economic data today - Aussie CPI, European and US GDP, US wages and the core PCE deflator. We’ve just seen weaking confidence in the Conference Board’s latest survey. Yet equity markets continue to rise. In fact, the S&P has had its bi...

Tuesday 29th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets were more subdued for most of the session overnight, with shares in the US down until a reversal in the last hour of trade. The hopes of a quick resolution to US-China is seeming less likely. For a start, are the two sides talking? NAB’s Tapas Strickland s...

Monday 28th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets stayed positive through most of last week on the hope that trade deals will be done, and tariffs are being used as leverage rather than being a permanent fixture. But Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what if deals aren’t done. A source report in the Wall Street Journ...

Thursday 24th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US dollar will continue to slide, come what May. And probably come what June and July. Whilst he’s reluctant to be drawn too closely on timing, NAB’s Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, says we can expect to see the US dollar fall another 10 percent, at least, with...

Thursday 24th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by more than half in some cases, althou...

Wednesday 23rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets are behaving very differently today. US equities are rising, bond movement is subdued, and oil prices are back on the rise. NAB’s Sally Auld says sentiment is being driven by talk from the US administration about trade deals getting closer with Indi...

Tuesday 22nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The 'sell America' trade continued on Monday, with equities and bond prices both falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s uncertainty over the independence of the Fed that is playing on market concerns this time. The US President has made no secret of his desire to re...

Thursday 17th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . IATA is predicting the airline industry will break through the $1 trillion revenue mark, but with margins averaging up 3.6 percent. Phil suggests to airline industry analyst John Strickland that it’s not much of a return for such...

Thursday 17th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Things are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade significantly with China. NAB’s Gavin F...

Wednesday 16th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Tariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we are still waiting t...

Tuesday 15th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps as President Trump’s weekend social...

Monday 14th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There was very little market reaction to the increase in tariffs from China on Friday. Could equities respond, though, to the news of exemptions announced by President Trump for certain electronics goods. Could this mean, as CEOs queue up for meetings at the White House...

Friday 11th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Economists these days tend not to treat the supply of money as a major determinant of economic growth. That’s because a downturn in the supply of money can be counteracted by the speed at which money changes hands. This we...

Friday 11th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Yesterday’s rebound in US equities has proven to be very short-lived, with equities well down at the close in New York. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a reality check, with the tariff war continuing between the US and China, and the question of whether Trump will be...

Thursday 10th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB A roller coaster session on the markets. It started yesterday during the day in Australia with massive selloffs in US bonds on the news of rising tariffs from China and the US. The US is now up to 125%, with China imposing 84% from tomorrow. NAB’s Ken Crompton&nb...

Wednesday 9th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don’t want to trade with China anymore,...

Tuesday 8th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approach saw a swift reversal. When it eme...

Monday 7th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB In a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the next steps. If compromises aren’t f...

Friday 4th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief economist Brian Redican about how Trump’s approa...

Friday 4th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB You’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on the tariffs charged by supplier nation...

Thursday 3rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB President Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you listen. But what happens next? And,...

Wednesday 2nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with the White House Press Secretary sayin...

Tuesday 1st April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Gold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. NAB’s Skye Masters says US shares di...

Monday 31st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB This week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation  of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expe...