NAB Morning Call

Thursday 25th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Aussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Ta...

Wednesday 24th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Not a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was eno...

Tuesday 23rd September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly m...

Monday 22nd September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news. If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was drivi...

Friday 19th September 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch on  was why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are...

Friday 19th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge...

Thursday 18th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Jerome Powell called today’s rate cut, and the increased dots plot for the remainder of the year, part of their risk management approach. Although some might say increasing the expectation for cuts, whilst highlighting the potential for a weaker labour market and...

Tuesday 14th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market re...

Tuesday 14th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in J...

Monday 13th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty. That uncertainty was r...

Friday 12th September 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Maybe it’s not just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is c...

Friday 12th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growi...

Thursday 11th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US bond yields pushed lower after the latest producer price index was weaker than expected. The core figure, year on year, has gone from 3.4% in July to 2.8% in August. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a chunk of the fall has been margin squeeze to compensate for imp...

Wednesday 10th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Although we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for...

Tuesday 9th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Are we about to see a big downward revision in US jobs data? Today a recalibrated set of results for the year to March will be released. Last time it showed a downward revision of 818,000 jobs. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its ancient history and he doesn’t expect the m...

Monday 8th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The building evidence in jobs-related data pointed to a disappointing non-farm payrolls number for the US, and on Friday we got it, with a small increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. NAB’s Skye Masters says it pushed bond yields lower, but hig...

Friday 5th September 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government s...

Friday 5th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number...

Thursday 4th September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US job openings (JOLTs) data showed a fall in July (7.2 million down from 7.4 million in June, a number which was also revised down). This has adding to the belief that the US jobs market is getting weaker. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the findi...

Wednesday 3rd September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB NAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil po...

Tuesday 2nd September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It was a quiet session overnight with the US on holiday. Instead, there was a focus on Tianjin in China, where Putin, Xi and Modi all got together to talk about the new world order. Phil points out on today’s podcast that collectively these leaders oversee a th...

Monday 1st September 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB This could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on...

Friday 29th August 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-P...

Friday 29th August 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September se...

Thursday 28th August July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Today’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop Indi...