MPC Markets Morning Call

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,110.22, snapping a five-day advance, as oil’s 5%+ surge weighed on sentiment. Brent crude settled above $95 at $95.02 (+5.1%) and WTI climbed to $88.58 (+5.6%) after Iran’s weekend re-closure of Hormuz and the US Navy’s seizure of the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska underscored the fragility of the truce. Trump declared it “highly unlikely” he would extend the c...

Friday’s euphoric rally — which pushed the S&P 500 to a record 7,125.36 (+1.2%) and sent Brent crude tumbling 8.7% to $90.71 — is being unwound after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, citing the continued US naval blockade of its ports. Weekend futures show Brent crude surging 7.25% while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.01%. The US Navy seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska...

US equities edged to fresh record highs as optimism over a potential Iran peace deal kept markets buoyant, but gains were capped by warnings that a resolution could take six months. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to settle at 7,039.37, extending its remarkable run from the March lows. Brent crude surged more than 4% toward $99 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. SPI futures poi...

Wall Street reached all-time record highs on Wednesday as investors priced in growing optimism for a peace deal and rotated aggressively back into technology stocks. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.81, its first record close since January 27, while the Nasdaq Composite hit 24,016.02, eclipsing its previous October peak. The catalyst was twofold: a major rotation into software stocks — which had la...

Two months into the Iran war, Wall Street has decided to shrug. The S&P 500 closed at 6,967.38 on Tuesday — 1.3% above its pre-war level of February 27 and within 12 points of a fresh all-time record — as three tailwinds converged: a cooler-than-expected US PPI print, strong Q1 bank earnings, and renewed diplomatic signals from both Washington and Tehran. March PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month (vs...

US equities staged a decisive recovery on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 1% at 6,887 to fully erase all losses sustained since the outbreak of the Iran war six weeks ago. President Donald Trump’s declaration that Iran “wants to make a deal” sparked the rally even as the US Navy enforced a new blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel before paring gains on t...

The “peace dividend” that drove global equities sharply higher last week has evaporated overnight after US–Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed following 21 hours of talks. President Trump has declared a full US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “effective immediately,” with CENTCOM confirming enforcement commences at 12am Tuesday AEST. The Australian dollar fell 1% in early Sydney trading...

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, the Dow +0.58% to 48,185.80 (now positive YTD), and the Nasdaq +0.83% to 22,822.42, marking the index’s seventh consecutive session of gains — its longest run since October. Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah, boosting ceasefire credibility, though Iran’s new supreme leader signalled Hormuz will enter “a new stage” of ma...

Key Takeaways Global equities surged: the S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,783.48, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.9%, the Dow gained 2.8% to 47,910.79 (best day in a year), and the MSCI World Index climbed 3%. The US-Iran two-week ceasefire — agreed just 90 minutes before Trump’s deadline — triggered a classic “TACO Tuesday” relief rally, though Iran accused the US of violations within hours due to ongoing Isr...

Key Takeaways US equities reversed early losses to finish near flat — S&P 500 +0.1% to 6,617.74, Nasdaq +0.1% to 22,017.85, Dow -0.2% to 46,584.33 — as Pakistan’s ceasefire request sparked a late-session relief rally. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif requested Trump extend the Iran Hormuz deadline by two weeks and urged all parties to observe a ceasefire, with Tehran said to be “positively reviewing...

Key Takeaways 1. US equities extended their winning streak to four sessions: S&P 500 +0.45% to 6,612.02, Nasdaq Composite +0.54% to 21,996.34, Dow Jones +0.36% to 46,669.88, MSCI World +0.3%. 2. Iran formally rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal brokered by Pakistan, issuing a 10-condition counter-demand; Trump’s Tuesday 8 p.m. EDT deadline for Hormuz reopening remains “final.” 3. WTI crude ro...

US equities extended their two-day recovery with the S&P 500 adding 0.7% to 6,573.89 as Trump claimed Iran had requested a ceasefire — a claim Tehran immediately rejected as “false and baseless.” WTI crude briefly broke below $100 for the first time since the war began, and Brent slipped to $101. Gold surged 2.1% to $4,765 as the de-escalation narrative held, while data showed US retail sales...

Tuesday’s market euphoria was driven by two converging headlines: Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the country has the “necessary will to end this war” with guarantees, and the WSJ reported Trump told aides he is willing to end military operations even if Hormuz remains closed. The S&P 500 gained 2.9%, the Nasdaq Composite added 3.8%, and the Dow rose 2.5% — the biggest day for all three since...

The first quarter of 2026 closes with markets scarred by the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.33 on Monday, leaving it 8.7% below its record close, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.73% to 20,795.20 and the Dow eked out a 0.12% gain to 45,219.91, technically exiting correction territory. WTI crude rose 4.6% to $104.18 a barrel and Brent topped $115 intraday b...

The Iran conflict entered a dangerous new phase over the weekend, with Houthi militants joining the fight, Israel striking Tehran, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations. The Dow Jones confirmed a correction on Friday — down more than 10% from its February peak — while the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to close its fifth straight losing week, its longest such str...

Thursday’s session was a mirror image of Wednesday’s brief relief rally. Iran formally rejected Washington’s 15-point peace framework, submitted its own counter-conditions, and maintained attacks on Israel — while Trump simultaneously extended the energy-attack pause by another 10 days to April 6 and claimed talks were going “very well.” Markets didn’t believe him. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to...

Tuesday’s session was defined by a single question: is Trump negotiating or escalating? His claim that Iran gave a “present” tied to Hormuz flows briefly ignited risk appetite, but the simultaneous Pentagon deployment of 2,000 82nd Airborne troops told a different story. The S&P 500 ended down just 0.4% — a small loss that understates the intraday violence. Oil bounced 4.3% as the Strait of Ho...

This is a high-stakes, information-dense update. Below is a structured YouTube description designed to capture the urgency of the market situation while maintaining the professional, skeptical tone of the transcript. In this morning’s call, Mark Gardner breaks down the massive disconnect between recent White House claims and the reality on the ground in the Middle East. While markets bounced overn...

Wall Street recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.51% to a six-month low and breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Nasdaq shed 1.88%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.24%, and every major index now carries a “Strong Sell” technical signal on the daily and hourly timeframes. Oil surged 4.55% with Brent above $112 a b...

Overnight saw another volatile session dominated by the US–Israel war on Iran. Oil initially surged 10% after Iranian strikes knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and damaged Saudi and UAE energy facilities, before easing back as Netanyahu took the podium. Equities finished modestly lower across the board — the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow 0.4%, and MSCI World dropped 0.7% — well off t...

Global markets endured a brutal session overnight as Iran escalated its military campaign across Gulf energy infrastructure, sending Brent crude surging near US$110 and triggering a broad risk-off selloff. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised its 2026 inflation forecast, with Powell striking a cautious tone on future rate cuts. The S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, Treasury yields climbed shar...

Strait of Hormuz Interactive Infographic: https://mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au/dashboard/content/the-1970s-oil-shocks-cpi-rates-asset-performance Wall Street posted modest gains on Tuesday as investors attempted to look through the fog of war in the Middle East, with the S&P 500 adding 0.25% to close at 6,716, the Nasdaq up 0.47%, and the Dow barely changed. Markets remain caught between competing...

Markets rallied to start the week as a sharp retreat in oil prices from the US$102+ highs eased fears of a full-blown energy crisis, even as the US-Israeli war on Iran entered its third week with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight. Risk assets benefited broadly, with equities, bonds, crypto, and travel stocks all advancing, while the dollar weakened. Nvidia’s US$1 trillion AI chip demand forecast add...

The US–Iran conflict dominated global markets for a second consecutive week, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 and triggering a broad repricing of risk assets. The energy shock is rippling across sectors from semiconductors to fertilisers, while stagflation fears are building as US GDP growth was revised sharply lower even as core inflation remains sticky at 3.1...

Overnight markets were dominated by a sharp escalation in the Iran war, with Brent crude breaching $100 for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA declared the conflict the largest oil supply disruption ever. US equities sold off broadly, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% and private credit stress compounding the risk-off mood....