MPC Markets Morning Call

AI stocks were smashed overnight as the hyperscalers reported surging capex and weakening free cash flow. Amazon missed on EPS and revenue, Google posted its first negative free cash flow quarter since listing, Meta got hit, and Intel guided Q4 sales below expectations. Microsoft was the only big name to escape. Mark Gardner breaks down the price action, why the leveraged money rotating between ch...

Microsoft up, Google down, and a Fed that talked like it was hiking. Thursday 29 October. Microsoft’s Azure grew nearly 50% to $33 billion, with a $677 billion backlog, and the market called it the most responsible approach to AI spending. Google Cloud grew 103%, but free cash flow went negative and the stock fell around 11% after hours. Free cash burn, not growth, is what the market is pricing ri...

Chip stocks bounced again overnight, with the SOX up 3.6%, the Nasdaq up 1.2% and the S&P 500 up 0.6%, while Meta went looking for more funding for its AI build-out. Mark Gardner and Jonathan Tacadena cover the hyperscaler free cash flow divide, why CoreWeave and Firmus have faded from the headlines, SpaceX's compute ambitions, and where the ASX miners sit ahead of the Fed, Microsoft and G...

Anthropic has filed for IPO and chips are bouncing. Mark Gardner and Jonathan Tacadena break down what it means for markets on the MPC Markets Morning Call, 27 October 2026. In this episode: 0:00 Intro and general advice warning 0:39 Chip stocks bounce, Tesla jumps on a Barclays upgrade 1:45 Anthropic files for IPO: share classes, voting control, the lead brokers 4:04 Losses, compute costs and con...

Stocks were weighed down Friday night by oil pushing toward 2026 highs (highest Brent/WTI settlement since late April), not by chips. Energy names rallied while the broader market stayed soft. Chips bounced and cybersecurity stocks lifted on the WordPress/PHP vulnerability. This week brings Australian CPI, hyperscaler earnings (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon), US Q3 GDP and core PCE, Fed/ECB/BoJ...

Nasdaq had its worst day since June as the AI and chip trade was aggressively unwound. Equal-weight S&P rose while the headline index fell, highlighting how concentrated the damage was. Mark Gardner covers: The sharp sell-off in chip and AI names (Meta, Lam Research, NVIDIA and others) Trump’s midterm campaigning and the growing NIMBY backlash against data centres over power bills SOX sitting...

SpaceX lit up the AI trade overnight while Tesla and Meta both beat after the bell. Chips bounced hard (Supermicro +9.5%, Nvidia and the rest green), Tesla free cash flow came in positive $1.53bn against a cash-burn forecast, and Meta’s Q4 guide beat consensus. AT&T sold off despite beating because SpaceX is positioning to be the phone company. Lam Research and Netflix disappointed after hours...

Oil spiked then faded and the Dow pushed higher overnight as US earnings did the heavy lifting. Mark Gardner covers the overnight session and the ASX open. Brent topped US$110 intraday on fresh Hormuz tanker attacks before settling ~1% lower. US pending home sales fell 7.3% — the worst since 2001. On earnings: GE sold off on a soft outlook with money rotating into healthcare and financials; Netfli...

Chips snapped an eight-day slide overnight, with Amazon leading tech higher (+5%) after Morgan Stanley tagged it a top earnings-season pick and Intel bouncing on a JP Morgan upgrade. CoreWeave found defenders despite debt worries, the banks lagged, and Tesla rose as Elon pledged a SpaceX share to every child in America. Phil and Mark also cover the worst start to a US earnings season since 2024 (M...

Oil tops US$100 and Brent clears US$110 as the AI sell-off rolls on — chips have now fallen for eight straight days, their longest losing run since 2008, shedding more market cap than the entire ASX 200. Mark and Phil cover the AI unwind (Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Intel, Lam Research, Applied Materials, Oracle, and CoreWeave down ~12% Friday), why credit default swaps on AI debt are suddenly in focus...

The rally broadens as investors abandon chip stocks for a seventh straight session. Mark and Friday Phil cover a session that was green everywhere except semis — Nvidia -1.8%, Dell down ~22% in three days — while gold and silver miners, lithium, healthcare and software led the “great rotation” higher. Also in today’s call: a hot US PPI print (+1.3% m/m vs +0.6% expected, ~6.3% y/y, hottest since M...

Tech stocks took an absolute beating overnight — the SOX fell 4.3%, now 20% off its peak and down for a sixth straight day, with every data-centre name (Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Oracle, Dell) sold off. Mark Gardner covers a shaky start to US earnings season (Bank of America down ~6% on a surprise impairment, a soft JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley off 2.75%), the defensive rotation into healthcare, Chevron and...

Fed’s Williams signals one more hike then done — bond yields dropped 10bps but stocks still slid. We break down: Micron’s 3.6% drop on China’s CXMT chip news (and why it’s an overreaction), JP Morgan’s first earnings miss since 2023 while Goldman crushed it, the lithium bloodbath (PLS -8.6% in a day, -21% in three sessions), growing skepticism around the data center trade after AirTrunk and Firmus...

A quiet night with US bonds shut for Columbus Day. Mark Gardner runs through chip stocks sliding, Brent up about 2% on reports of a tanker hit in Hormuz, Meta's new Muse AI model, upgrades for Salesforce and eBay, and Starbucks ruling out Chipotle. Locally: Maas down 15% after Firmus pulled its listing, uranium, lithium and rare earths getting belted, plus RBA minutes, the NAB survey and the T...

Stocks Shrug off Oil and Bonds into 1st Week of Earnings Wall Street finished Friday within striking distance of all-time highs as investors brace for Q3 bank earnings this week. The S&P 500 rose 0.59%, the Dow gained 0.83% and the Nasdaq added 0.64% — all three logging weekly gains. Analysts expect roughly 31% year-on-year earnings growth with AI and energy driving two-thirds of the increase....

US semiconductor stocks were hammered after an FT report pegged OpenAI’s annualised revenue at ~$50 billion, roughly $20 billion below prior estimates. The SOX dropped 3.4%, Brent crude surged 4% past $104 on Strait of Hormuz attacks and Gulf Coast hurricane shut-ins, and Treasuries rallied with the 10-year yield falling 6 bp to 5.22%. ASX 200 futures point to a mildly positive open at 8,715 amid...

Wall Street snapped a four-session win streak as 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. Fed minutes revealed all 19 officials backed September's rate hike, with most signalling another by year-end. Brent crude settled near US$100 amid ongoing Hormuz tensions, France's bond crisis deepened with the Franco-German spread at 141bp, and the AI bubble deba...

Wall Street surged to all-time highs overnight — the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,820.85 and the Nasdaq hit 27,599.79 as six of the Magnificent Seven advanced on renewed AI and chip stock enthusiasm. G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves, Constellation Energy jumped 12% on a nuclear deal with Google, and uranium surged 4%. Gold, silver and copper rallied while...

The Nasdaq closed at a record high overnight — up 1.05% to 27,477 — even as US 10-year yields hit 5.35%, their highest since 2002. With European bonds under pressure, private credit gating redemptions, and inflation eroding cash, big tech is starting to look like the only safe haven left. We break down BMO's call for 6% on the 30-year, Aramco's warning that global oil stocks are "scar...

The US 10-year yield hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, before reversing after Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signalled patience on further hikes. The S&P 500 recovered to close up 0.2% but the ASX 200 bore the brunt, falling 2.0% to its lowest since June. Brent crude surged 4.3% on a third US carrier deployment to the Middle East, China suspending fuel exports, and Iran warning of a "forceful...

Cooling US inflation data sparked a morning rally, but Wall Street gave it all back in a brutal final-hour selloff. The Dow dropped 0.86%, the S&P 500 lost 0.25%, and bond yields hit multi-decade highs with the 30-year at 5.638%. Micron smashed earnings — revenue up 256% year-on-year — but the flat after-hours reaction has Mark questioning AI sentiment heading into Q4. The team draws parallels...

Wall Street finished lower as the US 10-year yield touched 5.27% — a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions. Gold and silver were smashed 3–5% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets. In this episode, Mark and Phil cover: - US 10-year at 5.27% and 30-year through 5.50% — hyperscaler debt now competing with Treasuries - Brent crude holds...

Stocks Grind Higher as Geopolitics Weighs | 28 September 2026 Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by Microsoft's Copilot refresh and easing oil as Iran proposed a seven-day Hormuz reopening. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the war premium back in play. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (hit 5.23% intraday) with the 30-year topp...

US equities finished a choppy session little changed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 easing 0.02% to 7,704.13, the Dow down 0.3% to 51,349.98 and the Nasdaq up a marginal 0.01% to 26,939.37, as a bond-market rout and a fresh spike in oil offset any comfort from the Trump–Xi summit in Washington. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 9bp to 5.20–5.21%, its highest since July 2007, after NY...

US 10-Year Yield Smashes to Record Highs — Bond Market Sends a Warning Jonathan Tacadena hosts today's Morning Call as the bond market delivers the story of the day: the US 10-year yield rocketed from ~4.95% to 5.11% overnight, a fresh record high and one of the sharpest moves in recent memory. Equities were mostly lower but surprisingly muted given the scale of the bond sell-off — Dow -350pts, S&...