Moving Markets

Equity markets closed the week lower after comments from the leading central banks forced investors to realise that they will be stuck with higher rates for longer than expected as the war against inflation continues to be fought at the monetary policy level. Asia’s stock indices are facing their own challenges today as China’s property sector continues to implode. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technica...

This week, one central bank after another made it clear that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. As a result, government bond yields rose sharply, the US dollar strengthened and equities sold off. Only the Bank of Japan remains on a different wavelength, keeping its monetary policy as loose as ever. In Asia, the positive news is that China may allow the immediate transfer of investment-...

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted at one more hike in the US this year and that rates will stay higher for longer than market participants had initially thought. Yields are higher and equities lower this morning, with only the US dollar shining. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, explains that the current expansionary US fiscal policy could make the...

Amid rising pricing pressure in the energy sector, today it’s the turn of the US Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate decision. UK CPI data surprises to the downside, in a sign that sticky inflation is slowly starting to come down ahead of the Bank of England rate decision tomorrow. And our Chief Economist David Kohl provides his comprehensive insights on what we can expect from th...

Markets are basically on hold ahead of the US rate decision tomorrow. The oil rally, which has the potential to raise risks to inflation, has us on tenterhooks in a week dominated by central bank activity. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why fiscal policy might now be more important than monetary policy in the US. He also delves into the Fed’s dots and what we might read...

Oil prices hit a 10-month high on Friday driven by Saudi Arabian production cuts and optimism around Chinese demand. The Federal Reserve is debating whether to raise interest rates one more time this year and how much to ease rates in 2024. Rental costs in the UK have grown at the fastest rate in at least 10 years. There’s a busy agenda of central bank meetings this week. Markus Wachter from Techn...

European equities rallied yesterday on the prospect of an end to the European Central Bank's tightening cycle even as the growth outlook was downgraded, while US equities rose on strong retail sales figures and Hong Kong equities gained on better-than-expected data from China. Arm's IPO was well received, with the stock rising 25% on its first day of trading; US autoworkers went on strike, affecti...

Following yesterday’s US inflation data, which came in marginally higher than expectations, today it’s the turn of the European Central Bank to decide whether the unprecedented surge in eurozone inflation has fallen enough to warrant a pause in its tightening cycle. Our Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, shares his insights into the European and US equity market dynamics. And Tim Gagie, He...

Tech stocks are under pressure after Oracle missed on earnings and gave a rather gloomy outlook and Apple's 'Wonderlust' event failed (so far) to inspire investors' imagination. With US inflation figures due today and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains why he remains positive that yields are peaking. 00:00 Introduction by Berna...

Stocks around the world are being boosted not only by expectations that the Fed will pause its rate hike cycle next week, but also by investors buying into technology stocks after recent weakness and on news from companies like Tesla and Apple. In Asia, sentiment in the property sector improved after a Chinese property developer in distress reached an agreement to extend the repayment on six of it...

Investors breathed a small sigh of relief on Friday as European and US equity markets halted their losing streak, closing the day, if not the week, marginally higher. Recent economic data in the US has reignited rate hike fears. This Thursday we will find out what the ECB will do. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank governor boosted the yen and government bond yields as he signalled that an end to neg...

Yes, Apple Inc. was the spanner in the equity markets’ works yesterday. In all fairness, it was actually the Chinese government turning the screw on Apple, as it sought to broaden its ban on foreign technology further. As Apple‘s share price dropped for the second day in a row, the impact was felt most in the tech sector and saw the Nasdaq composite fall for a fourth consecutive session yesterday,...

Good news on the US economy was bad news for US equities yesterday as increased interest rate expectations weighed on stocks. An expanded ban on using iPhones in China also weighed on market sentiment, and this is also spilling over to Asian markets that are a sea of red this Thursday. European luxury stocks were lower yesterday as Richemont’s chairman warned of the impact of high inflation on loc...

After Saudi Arabia and Russia both pledged to extend their supply cuts until the end of the year, oil has rallied, pushing yields higher and interrupting the rally in equities. Meanwhile, Eurozone economic data continues to come in below expectations. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains what this means for the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next week. 00:00 Introduction by...

As sluggish demand continues to plague the Chinese economy, investor sentiment takes a renewed hit on more disappointing data out of China. Today’s Caixin PMI data shows that China's services activity in August expanded at the slowest pace in eight months, with stimulus efforts so far unable to kickstart consumption. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on the late...

After US labour market data drove up stock prices on Friday, today it is China and its government's measures intended to prop up its ailing economy that are driving market sentiment. In commodities, oil prices are trading at levels last seen in November on fears over supply cuts by the OPEC+ group and strong economic data from China and the US pointing to strong demand for oil. Bitcoin, meanwhile,...

The US employment report will take centre stage today and it could well impact the US Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. In China, authorities are continuing with their strategy of announcing not one big-bang stimulus measure, but rather many small measures, to help the economy. And the US Securities and Exchange Commission has again delayed the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs – this...

Lower-than-expected Q2 US GDP data yesterday added to investors’ hopes that the Fed might take a breather in its hiking cycle. Stock markets might have rallied in response but they are still set to end August lower. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data came out below the magic 50 mark, indicating the economy is still contracting, but some Chinese building and AI companies...

The cooling of the US labour market suggests that the US Federal Reserve may pause its rate hike cycle in September. This sent equity prices soaring yesterday, while government bond yields fell substantially. In China's latest state-led measures, the country's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits. Bitcoin is also back in the headlines as a new ruling...

Global equities advance as investors continue to ponder central bankers’ comments at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last week and ahead of a series of key data releases later this week. Shop price inflation in the UK fell sharply to 6.9% in August reflecting hopes that this slowing in the pace of rising prices is a sign that UK households may soon be over the worst of the sharp squeeze on liv...

After central bankers delivered no surprises to markets at Jackson Hole, equities are rallying this morning led by Chinese on-shore stocks, which are rising on the back of the new measures announced to lure investors back into the ailing stock market. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the uptrend for stocks remains intact. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Inv...

US stock markets stumbled yesterday as strong results from blockbuster Nvidia failed to boost the broader stock market and as investors seemed nervous ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The negative sentiment spread to the Asia-Pacific region overnight. In other news, the BRICS group announced plans to increase its number of members, which could well lead to some co...

Nvidia delivered sterling results yesterday, topping analysts’ expectations for earnings per share, revenue and the forecast for quarterly sales. Stock markets globally rallied with tech and AI stocks benefitting disproportionately. US treasuries stabilised in Asian trading, having recovered some ground in the US session on Wednesday following softer-than-expected PMI data. Norbert Ruecker, Head o...

US equities fell further yesterday, weighed by concerns over rising Treasury yields ahead of a key speech later this week from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares with us his recommendations on how to tackle the current environment in bond markets. And in a special contribution from Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, we talk about the latest developments i...

The sell-off in US bond markets resumed yesterday, pushing yields on typical Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) up to levels not seen in years. Meanwhile, tech stocks rallied on optimistic earnings reports, which is particularly interesting as they have historically struggled in a high interest rate environment. In Asia, Japanese yields also surged, fuelling speculation...