Moving Markets

The US yield curve appears stuck and the S&P 500 index is down more than 10% from its highs earlier this year. This week's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, news of the US Treasury’s borrowing plans, employment data and earnings are all likely to determine the market's direction into the year end. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says that lows in sentiment often coincide...

Asian equity markets were stronger this morning and US futures are higher following better than expected US GDP growth and strong earnings from two tech heavyweights. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, gives his views on the ECB's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and Bence Boldvai of FX & PM Advisory provides insight into currency and commodity movers this week. 00:00...

While US new homes sales rose strongly, highlighting the remarkable resilience of the US economy, it’s the Q3 earnings season that continues to dominate investor sentiment this week. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about China's latest stimulus measures and what these mean for industrial metal prices. And Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides an up...

US equities snapped a five-day losing streak yesterday, supported by slightly lower Treasury yields and solid earnings. In Europe, all eyes are on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow, while in Asia, both China and Japan are planning to increase government support to help their ailing economies. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, joins today’s episode to outline our...

Lower yields after 'things have gone too far', two mega-mergers and the earnings season in full swing this week have driven markets in recent hours. And bitcoin is back in the news after surpassing USD 35,000 overnight. Find out why Manuel Villegas, crypto analyst in our Next Generation team, thinks the crypto winter may be over. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:25...

In last week’s risk-off environment, the Swiss franc and gold have been the safe haven of choice for investors, while government bonds – another traditional safe haven – are showing weakness amid inflation and interest rate uncertainty. In other news, China's onshore equities are at their lowest since 2019 and Argentina faces another turbulent period ahead of the presidential run-off election on 1...

President Joe Biden appealed directly to the American people to support funding for Israel and Ukraine's war efforts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US central bank is inclined to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting. Data from EPFR Global and Morgan Stanley showed that US and European fund managers have sold a net USD 1.6 billion of Chinese equities so far th...

Mounting tensions in the Middle East and fears over elevated bond yields have sent markets into risk-aversion mode, as investors also try to decipher clues from the Fed around rates staying higher for longer. Yesterday, stocks came under pressure and oil gained as Iran stepped up its rhetoric against Israel. As investors flee to safe havens amid escalating geopolitics, Tim Gagie, Head of FX &...

A robust set of economic data from the US was enough to push yields sharply higher in recent hours, while safe-haven flows ebbed despite a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Financial markets are torn between geopolitical developments and a great start to the US earnings season. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, notes that central bank guidance on monetary policy has increased agai...

The view that the conflict in the Middle East may remain geographically limited with little impact on markets was the leading narrative yesterday. US equities and, today, Asian equities rose on the resulting risk-on sentiment. A strong start to the US earnings season also helped to improve investor sentiment after a rocky weekend. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about how the macr...

As the US and its allies stepped up efforts to prevent further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict, safe-havens lost some ground and helped equity futures move higher. Meanwhile, the earnings season kicked off last week with some impressive results and is set to gather pace this week. In Asia, Chinese equities failed to benefit from the central bank’s liquidity injection and are suffering from...

Although the latest US CPI figures were only slightly higher than expected, they were a welcome trigger for traders to take some profits after a few strong days. However, expectations for the first interest rate cuts in the US have been pushed back, reaffirming the market's current 'higher for longer' mantra. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, sums up an intense week for currency...

Equity markets are clearly anticipating a CPI report today that will show inflation slowing in the US, as most of the main global indices closed their sessions higher yesterday. China’s stock market was boosted by an announcement from Central Huijin Investment Ltd that they are increasing (and will continue to increase) their stake in four Chinese banks. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Ge...

US Treasury yields posted their biggest one-day drop all year on expectations that the US Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, and as safe-haven demand for Treasuries increased. The fall in yields also helped equity markets. In Asia, potential new stimulus measures from China are improving investor sentiment and supporting markets. Oil, meanwhile, remains in the spotlight amid the...

The US National Security Council has announced a security aid package for Israel, and that more support will be announced in the near future. Treasuries jumped the most since March this morning after dovish Federal Reserve comments and the Middle East conflict fuelled a safe-haven rally. Chinese developer Country Garden has stepped up warnings that it's on course for its first ever default and has...

US stocks staged an impressive turnaround on Friday, but market sentiment is subdued this morning following the escalation in the Middle East. In response to the developments, oil and safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold surged. Meanwhile in Asia, China returns from its ‘Golden Week’ holiday, which saw tourism revenues rise while other consumption figures remained mixed. Markus Wachter...

The market is focused on today's US employment report. Expectations are for an increase of 170,000 in non-farm payrolls last month, and any sharp deviations from expectations could potentially lead to big moves in financial markets today. There are reports that Exxon is buying Pioneer Natural Resources, which would be the largest acquisition of another company this year. The Reserve Bank of India...

Not such good news from the jobs market was good news for financial markets yesterday with US Treasury yields declining and US equities bouncing off multi-week lows. Longer-dated US Treasuries are experiencing losses similar to US equities during the dot.com crash in the early 2000s. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about gold and notes early signs of investors starting to ca...

A single report of a stronger-than-expected US labour market was enough to trigger another sell-off in equities yesterday. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, puts rising global yields into perspective, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions, Geneva, says the rally in the US dollar looks a bit overdone. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:38 Markets wrap-up by Ro...

Investor sentiment was dealt a further blow yesterday after manufacturing PMI data showed that manufacturing activity in the eurozone continued to weaken. The US managed to outstrip estimates, but remained in contraction territory all the same. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with the latest news from the digital assets world and the impact on crypto markets. 00:00 Intro...

US futures raced higher this morning following a last-minute deal on Saturday evening to keep the US government open until at least 17th November. Bond yields are, however, further elevated over concerns of inflation, higher oil prices and how long interest rates will remain high. Chinese markets will be closed this week for the Golden Week holiday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, expl...

US equities have struggled in September, but staged a bit of a month-end rally yesterday after US Treasury yields fell back from 15-year highs. Meanwhile in Asia, hopes that China’s Golden Week holiday will boost consumer spending are helping sentiment, as is the news that US and Chinese leaders are in talks to meet. In commodities, oil continues to grab headlines, with Brent on track for its best...

Benchmark US oil prices rose to USD 95 a barrel for the first time in more than a year after inventories in the nation's main stockpile fell to critical levels. Meanwhile, the prospect of a US government shutdown is weighing on markets already jittery about higher rates. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research delves into the oil story and further expands on energy transition,...

September continues to live up to its bad reputation in financial markets, with equities down between 3% and 7% and bond yields continuing to rise. The Federal Reserve's insistence on keeping policy tighter than expected continues to weigh on markets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains how this could also be an opportunity for investors. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investme...

Investor sentiment in Europe took a hit yesterday as concerns around interest rates staying higher for longer and renewed fears in the Chinese economy continued to daze markets. In the US, however, equities managed to snap their four-day losing streaks, shrugging off moves in the bond market. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides an update on the Bitcoin spot ETF saga and what th...