Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

The team welcomes their colleague Dave Chia to help us unwrap the economic implications of Korea's recent political drama. Although they seem limited at the moment, political change could be on the horizon. Thus, fiscal and foreign policy may shift with the political upheaval at home, compounding the already rising global uncertainties. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We...

In this week's episode, we delve into President-elect Trump's latest tariff announcement. We explore the economic ramifications, the ripple effects on global trade relationships, and what it might tell us about future tariffs. Steve and Harry go back and forth (and not just on the squash court) discussing how China might respond. Meanwhile, Katrina doesn’t miss a (drum) beat, highlighting the unce...

Additional tariffs could hit Asia hard, particularly in China. The team unwraps the multiple effects on Asia of President-elect Trump’s policy proposals. Even if new tariffs on trade with other economies in Asia are modest, none will escape the growth, inflation and supply-chain impacts.  Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay inform...

The team welcomes Brendan La Cerda, a Moody’s Analytics colleague and U.S. fiscal policy expert, to unpack the implications of a Trump or Harris victory. The divergent outcomes for Asia are significant in this too-close-to-call race.   Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics econom...

The team welcome their colleague Heron Lim to discuss all things Hong Kong, including the implications of China’s plethora of stimulus announcements. Also in the spotlight are China’s poor company profits, Hong Kong’s housing market and fed rate cuts. Steve finally goes first with “what’s your stat” …and it’s a doozy.  Today's Guest: Heron Lim, Moody's Analytics Questions or Comments, please email...

In this episode, the team dives into the heart of China's latest economic stimulus policies. Harry is optimistic that this time is different, and households are finally getting direct support. Katrina, however, leads with her usual pessimism but tries to offset the negativity with a bad economist joke. Join us as we dissect whether China's new economic measures mark a genuine turning point or if c...

Southeast Asia enjoyed resilience during the tightening cycle of monetary policy, but economy-specific differences remain critical. Moody’s economist and Southeast Asia expert Denise Cheok joins the team to delve into the details. Currency appreciation, surprise rate cuts, and the upcoming U.S. election keep the team on their toes. Steve is optimistic that inflation is “whipped.” Today's Guest: De...

Steve, Stefan and Harry jump into the everchanging world of global trade. The team explore recent trends in Asia, untangling the region’s interwoven supply chains and taking a deep dive into its diverse trade drivers. Looking to the future, the team give their best guess for how trade will evolve in an increasingly complex political environment.  Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moody...

Steve, Stefan and Harry are joined by Moody’s Analytics New Zealand economist Shannon Nicoll to discuss all the happenings in the Kiwi and Aussie economies. Hot on the heels of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates, the team explores what it means for the Kiwi economy and if there are lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia across the ditch. Plus, the team examines how Australia...

In this Olympic-sized episode, Steve, Katrina, Stefan, and Harry, along with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, tackle an eventful week in global markets. Katrina’s hopes for the podcast to come in under world record time are dashed as Mark and Stefan lead a marathon discussion on the complexities of yen carry trades and recent weak U.S. jobs data. As they come around the final bend, th...

Katrina Ell struggles to get “cuts” into her vocabulary as she discusses with Moody’s Analytics colleagues Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick the outlook in APAC for interest rate cuts, which are likely by the end of this year. Timing will depend on the U.S. Fed’s rate path, the struggle to contain sticky inflation, and volatility of foreign exchange rates. Questions or Comments, please email us at...

Global trade is on the mend, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The economic impacts of trade in Asia are being reshaped by demand for IT products and China’s massive manufacturing push. For China, rising tariffs put its trade outlook “under the pump.” In this context, Steve, Stefan and Harry unwrap the emerging trade patterns for tech-based industries, commodities, and the intermediate goods that s...

A declining population and labor force does not necessarily spell doom for economies in Asia. But some deft policy making will be needed to ensure productivity growth and adequate investment to maintain economic growth. Steve and the team discuss with Stefan the research he has done on this topic relating to Japan and China.  Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love...

Is China putting all its eggs in one basket with its manufacturing led recovery? Households are struggling as property market moves south and youth unemployment remains painfully high. Steve is the pessimist of the group, while Harry and Katrina are more hopeful the third plenum in July will be “chockers” with reforms.  Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hea...

The Asia-Pacific economy has accelerated so far this year from a weak fourth quarter. But inflation is improving inconsistently across the region. And in fact, two central banks have raised interest rates recently. In this environment, who is an optimist and who is a pessimist? Steve and Katrina take one side as Stefan and Harry disagree.  Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com....