Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Europe has built a digital architecture that is heavily reliant on the U.S. and China. It depends heavily on the former for software, cloud services, artificial intelligence and online platforms, while relying on the latter for the hardware, components and critical minerals beneath them. Two dependencies, very different in nature, both creating vulnerabilities that are difficult to unwind. In this...

With crude oil prices continuing to fall as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, Gaurav is joined by Barbara and Andrew to assess whether Europe is finally turning a corner. The euro zone inflation data raise hopes that the worst of the energy shock may be behind us, but the team warn of lingering risks from gas markets and delayed price pass-through still to come. The downside risks to growth...

Gaurav, Stefan and Denise turn their attention back to Asia-Pacific after months dominated by the Middle East conflict. With signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to resume, the team weighs whether the worst is over and the shock to the region's economies may yet prove transitory. They also dig into the K-shaped nature of Asian growth, where the AI boom is delivering blockb...

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Andrew are joined by Andrea Montanino, Chief Economist at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy, and former Executive Director at the IMF, to explore the profound transformations reshaping Europe’s economy. Framed around four key pillars—demographics, geopolitics, energy, and technology—the discussion examines the structural forces weighing on Europe’s growth and c...

In the second part of a Europe mini-series, the focus shifts to the region’s growth outlook as the Middle East conflict weighs on momentum. Higher oil prices have led to downward revisions in growth forecasts, though the eurozone remains in a fragile expansion. Underlying domestic demand is soft: consumers remain cautious, investment is weak, and export strength reflects temporary front-loading. T...

Inflation is again testing Europe’s policymakers, raising uncomfortable questions about how persistent recent upward pressure will prove and how best to respond. In the first part of a European special, Gaurav is joined by Kamil, Andrew and Barbara to unpack the latest euro zone inflation data and what is driving the renewed pickup in services prices. They explore the role of energy costs, insuran...

Rising bond yields have moved centre stage as turmoil in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and rattles global markets. In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew, Kamil, Denise and Stefan dig into what’s driving the recent jump in government bond yields, and how much reflects inflation fears versus fiscal and political concerns. From U.K. budget worries to Asia’s vulnerability to external shocks, the t...

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Andrew, Suren and Kamil to take stock of a global economy that is still holding up—just—three months into the Middle East conflict. Oil prices remain range‑bound for now, but the team warns that policy buffers are thinning and risks are becoming increasingly non‑linear. Asia is still benefiting from the AI boom, Europe’s economy looks more fragile as sentiment sours, wh...

Gaurav, Denise, Stefan and Andrew unpack the fallout from President Donald Trump’s closely watched meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. With plenty of warm words but few concrete breakthroughs, the discussion turns to what this means for U.S.‑China trade, tariffs and the longer‑term reality of technological decoupling between the world’s superpowers. The team also explores the implication...

Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David for a long-overdue deep dive into the U.K, where the Middle East conflict has darkened the growth and inflation picture just as the economy seemed to be stabilising. The team debate whether the economy’s surprisingly good start to the year reflects genuine strength or lingering seasonal quirks in the data, and why the surveys now point to a sharp slowdown. They...

Gala Riani, Head of Strategic Intelligence at SRM joins Gaurav, Suren and Barbara for an in‑depth conversation that explores the continued crisis in the Middle East. The discussion explores how the conflict has shifted from a military confrontation to an economic campaign, with a focus on U.S. strategy, Iran’s internal political dynamics, and the growing role of economic pressure and blockades. Ri...

In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Andrew Hunter, Kamil Kovar, and Barbara Teixeira Araújo to discuss the team’s expectations for the conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the European outlook. The panel agrees that the most likely path forward is a messy reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though there is less consensus on how quickly this w...

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan reconvene after their recent webinar to tackle the flood of audience questions on the Middle East conflict and its global spillovers. They unpack different conflict scenarios, trace the knock‑on effects across energy, supply chains and commodity markets, and assess how vulnerable Asia‑Pacific is to another major price shock. The conversation then turns to growth risks acr...

Dr Henry Wang, President of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing and a member of several international think tanks, joins GEU for a wide‑ranging discussion on China and its evolving role on the global stage. The conversation opens with China’s efforts to mediate an end to the current conflict in the Middle East, before turning to U.S.–China relations and what to expect from the forthc...

Gaurav and the GEU team take listeners on a tour of the global risk landscape. The discussion begins in the Middle East, where conflict is disrupting energy markets, creating significant security concerns and weighing on growth. Meanwhile, Asia's reliance on Gulf energy collides with higher prices, supply‑chain strains and trade tensions – even as the AI‑driven export boom offers a buffer. The tou...

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan meet to dig into the impact of the Middle East conflict on APAC economies. They discuss which countries could eventually run into trouble if the energy and food price shock drags on, and what governments can do to mitigate the fallout. The conversation then turns to China and the updated priorities set out at this year’s Two Sessions meeting. How does Beijing view the spi...

GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old all...

Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outl...

GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global econ...

Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective. Questions or Comments, please email us at GE...

Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a su...

David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome d...

Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its o...

Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? M...

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfort...