Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco , says that she expects the stock market to remain range-bound for a few months, with the potential for a small pullback before it starts its next upward move at the end of the year. Hooper says she expects that we're less likely to see a serious economic downturn that she was earlier this year, noting that the Federal Reserve "is enjoying...

Jerry Paul, senior vice president of fixed income at ICON Advisers , says that inflation is going to remain stubbornly high, which leads him to expect two more rate hikes and to doubt anyone expecting the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates. He believes it will be 2024 before rate cuts become a remote possibility. Meanwhile, Paul says there are plenty of fixed-income opportunities, th...

Barry Ritholtz , chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management , says the Federal Reserve has done a good job reducing inflation, but he worries that chairman Jerome Powell could over-tighten the economy into a recession, largely because the central bank is tied to models from the 1970s and following an outdated gameplan from that era that could make inflation worse today. In a wide-rangi...

Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments , says there's a pleasant surprise coming in that the Federal Reserve will not have to be too aggressive to get inflation under better control, noting that he expects a slowdown in the second half -- fueled by labor issues including a potential strike at UPS -- but that the downturn stops short of being a recession. Also on the show, K...

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that the economy must land but the question is 'Can it land in a reasonably smooth way or do we have a sharp correction downward' that triggers a recession. Gruenwald says the Federal Reserve has been surprising the market with its determination to reach its goals, and that while it puts off rate cuts for the next six to 12 months the ma...

David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- the author of the Haymaker newsletter -- says the economy has been throwing 'a huge head fake right now' that has convinced a lot of pundits that the Federal Reserve can pull off a soft- or no-landing scenario. That's not what he's expecting, however, noting that there are plenty of indicators to suggest that troubles are mounting. Als...

Zachary Karabell , president of RiverTwice Capital and founder of The Progress Network , says that investors who are looking to past economic patterns to predict what's next could be off base because, among other things, they are looking for a recession instead of trying to gauge whether we are already in one. He notes that the wide variability of potential outcomes from here shouldn't scare inves...

With surveys showing that most young adults feel they won't be able to afford to buy a home if they don't win a lottery, Chuck talks with Ajaie Albert, communications director at Lotto N Crowd -- a site that tries to mix financial literacy with lottery insights and the ability to join ticket pools -- about whether there is much anyone can do to meaningfully impact their chances of winning. Speakin...

Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors , says the economy looks like it can avoid a hard landing, and that should be enough to keep the stock market performing above investors' expectations. turning any downturn into a buying opportunity in conditions that he says should take the Standard and Poor's 500 up to about 4,800 over the next six to 12 months. Also on the...

Phillip Wool, head of research at Rayliant Global Advisors , says that equities aren't really pricing in even the possibility of recession, which is setting up a correction "when the economy starts to visibly roll over," when "earnings forecasts and analyst revisions get more negative." He expects that correction in the next six to 12 months, noting that the current rally has been a false indicato...

Andy McCormick, head of global fixed income/chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price , says that investors are 'cyclically underinvested in fixed income for a long time,' due to the low yields that were available, and they are also under-represented in foreign bonds -- which are not facing the inverted yield curve that's happening here -- and so diversifying into safe domestic and foreign bonds m...

Brett Wander, chief investment officer for fixed income strategies at Schwab Asset Management , says that if yields start to fall in money markets -- which will happen whenever interest rates get cut -- he would expect investors to turn to credit to get better returns. With that in mind, he thinks investors should be looking at investment-grade and high-yield credit now. He also suggests that inve...

Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager at Baird , says investors should not jump the gun expecting rate cuts just because the Federal Reserve has paused its hiking cycle and some pundits think the next move could be down. Fitterer thinks the Fed will at least keep rates higher for longer, possibly hiking some more later this year, with the economy likely to slow down into a soft landing or mild r...

Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning for Charles Schwab , discusses the firm's 2023 Modern Wealth Survey , which showed that Americans feel they need $2.2 million to actually 'be wealthy,' but just $560,000 to 'feel wealthy,' noting that the difference involves lifestyle, health and happiness considerations. Clearly, however, the old standard goal of being a millionaire is insuffi...

Aditi Javeri Gokhale, chief strategy officer at Northwestern Mutual , says that the average American expects to retire two years later than they did just a year ago, one of several key findings in the latest data release from the firm's 2023 Planning & Progress Study out today. She notes that Americans expect to need $1.27 million to retire, and that most have less than 10 percent of that amount s...

Duke University professor Campbell Harvey , senior advisor at Research Affiliates, says that the yield-curve inversion the U.S. economy is facing is the worst, most-dangerous kind of inverted conditions, and that the Federal Reserve is steering us increasingly toward a hard landing . Harvey is the researcher whose work pointed out the correlation between inverted yield curves and recessions, and h...

Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management says that the stock market is still reacting as if the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates before the end of this year, ignoring the likelihood that the central bank instead follows the data and pushes to get rates to 6 percent before holding steady for longer. He sees a soft landing and mild recession ahea...

Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer for value at the Gabelli Funds , says the market is starting to focus on growth and the Federal Reserve's ability to delay and minimize recession, and he believes the central bank will get the job done. Marangi says in The NAVigator segment that 'the new normal' is one where inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent and growth is...

Michael Lowenberg, portfolio manager for the Modern Capital Tactical Opportunities fund , says that years pf interest rates being held artificially low has created opportunities for investors looking for income now, at a point where cash can be a more tactical investment choice and closed-end funds offer good opportunities to buy income streams at a discount. He's in for the Market Call today, but...

Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation for GMO , says that recessions come and go and don't leave 'much of alasting mark on either the economy or the markets,' so while he expects the ecoomy to go through a recession soon, he's not sure it matters to long-term investors, particularly those in value stocks, as he talks about a recent paper debunking the idea that underpriced stocks door poorly duri...

Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research says that the primary trends he is seeing right now are up, and he is expecting more of a breakout because we are in the early stages of a bull market, but while that trend is positive, Pring says he has low expectations for the current cycle because the market is in the process of transitioning from a secular bull market to a secular bear m...

Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs , says that while the firm's research shows that 73 percent of companies are overstating their core earnings when adding in one-time events and other factors that are part of what's known as 'street earnings,' he sees five companies with the most overblown numbers as ready for a fall, identifying MGM Resorts, PG and E Corp, Boston Scientific, Fiserv...

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts , says that while the rally may seem range-bound, the recent upswing has pushed it past the range and started the next rally, one which he thinks could go by another 10 percent likely before the end of the year. De Kempenaer notes that while the rally has been fueled by a few stocks, the rally will be more broad, with small caps starting...

Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments , says he expects the market 'to reverse the gains we have had year to date' and suggests investors will be better off in cash riding out the downturn, which he thinks will be stubborn and persistent even if the downdraft is not exceptionally steep. In the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Ma...

Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research , says that he expects a short, shallow recession that starts no later than early into 2024, but he also says there is the potential for the economy to avoid the status of a recession while riding the U-shaped economic recovery through sub-par and sluggish growth. Ed Carson, news editor at  Investor's Business Daily discusses the late...