Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union , says that, in hindsight, the economy was never in real danger of a recession because of the strong consumer and with the consumer now getting stronger the economy will be able to move forward at reasonable growth levels. Frick also calls the inverted yield curve and the leading economic indicators 'irrelevant,' noting that conditions...

Financial journalist Allan Sloan -- a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award -- says that while it appears the country can avoid a recession, America can't avoid long-term financial trouble if leaders in Washington can't find a way to compromise and make progress on financial goals. He says the Fitch Ratings downgrade of U.S. credit is a sign that the markets reco...

Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer for Cambiar Investors , says that rising interest rates have increased the cost of capital for businesses, which is shifting which industries and businesses can thrive. The increased cost of capital is changing market conditions to where value and growth investing are now on a more equal footing, and should be more balanced moving forward. Leo L...

Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners , says the worst is over for the economy -- the worst being the horrible stock and bond market of 2022 -- and that while recessionary conditions exist or may bubble up in some sectors, the overall market is likely to be strong, retaining or growing the gains the market has experienced thus far this year. David Trainer, president ...

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management , says the slow-developing impacts from the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy 'still lies before us ,' putting the market 'in a vulnerable spot' as it enters August, September and October, historically the toughest months of the year. As a result, he expects a 'tactical correction' late this year, an...

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments , says the stock market's strong run makes investors feel good, but it has gotten to a point where the market is expecting more that a slowing economy that is dealing with inflation can deliver. Thomas says the current earnings recession is problematic -- regardless of whether the broad economy enters a recession -- because it shows t...

Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief investment officer, at Centerstone Investors  says the economy is still playing out the last effects of the pandemic, and that a recession is likely to be the end of those financial consequences before 'the normal progression starts to resume.' Deshpande says it will be a 'run-of-the-mill recession,' a mild slowdown that investors will want to muddle through in s...

Bill Adams , chief economist at Comerica Bank says that the economy is not headed toward a significant downturn felt across many sectors of the economy, showing up in declining incomes and employment and it lasts for several quarters. While he sees slow growth and a few other issues, Adams believes the Federal Reserve has done enough to avoid a recession, and expects the central bank to wait at le...

Akhil Patel, author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage: How You Can Profit from the Economy's Hidden Cycle' says that the economy is nearing the peak in the long-term cycles his research has uncovered, and that time should be filled with rampant speculative behavior, where investors lose sight of fundamentals. He expects that rally built around confidence and momentum to end when the cycle turns and...

Veteran markets observer Nick Sargen , senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors , says he has been surprised by the strength of the market's current rally, but he doesn't see the market re-testing of lows -- even if the uptrend has gone too far, too fast -- so long as the Federal Reserve is nearly done with hiking rates. Sargen notes that one saving grace of the market's tops...

Steve Sosnick , chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers , says investors should be thinking defensively and looking at dividend stocks rather than hoping that central bankers will pivot and start cutting rates to boost the market, because he thinks the Fed will stick with higher rates until economic conditions deteriorate to where such a move is necessary. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaF...

George Milling-Stanley , chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors , says that a recession or period of slower growth will hurt the dollar and domestic stocks, creating ideal conditions for gold, particularly with the confluence of higher-for-longer inflation and election-year politics. Milling-Stanley notes that while gold has not been a great hedge against the recent inflation, he ex...

Jeffrey Kleintop , chief global market strategist at Charles Schwab and Co. , says that the cardboard box recession of the last year -- which affected manufacturing and trade sectors, effectively 'everything that goes in a cardboard box' -- has allowed the economy and market to push forward despite potential troubles, but now he sees difficult conditions hitting some of the service sectors which c...

Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments , has gotten famous making 10 predictions every year, and he sits down to revisit what he was saying at the start of the year and how it has been turning out. Thus far, it has been a mixed bag, but Doll notes that the market has been more optimistic than anyone expected for 2023, and now that investors are fee...

Jim Welsh, author of the 'Macro Tides' and 'Weekly Technical Review' newsletters, says that the leading economic indicators that had everyone expecting a recession a year ago have fooled investors by softening recently. While many experts now are predicting a soft landing and the potential for no recession, Welsh says key indicators -- like the inverted yield curve -- often take a year or more to...

Long-time bond fund manager Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles and Co. , says that the current economic environment 'rhymes with what we had in the 1970s, but the geopolitics and the climate are new things, and they are actually more important right now than what the Fed is up to.' Fuss says he does not expect short-term interest rates to start trending downward quickly, noting that he expec...

Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network , says it's hard to make a case for risk assets like stocks to move much in either direction and the mixed signals extend to the economy, which he believes will avoid the extreme moves in either direction. As a result, he discounts the potential for an economic hard landing -- despite expecting below-average economic grow...

Jeffrey Bierman, founder of The QuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade.com , says that the market is overheated and overbought, but it very well could rise from here and re-touch record highs before a likely correction ahead. Bierman says technology and leisure are the areas that have made the market frothy and are overdue for a correction of 30 percent or more, and while oil and fi...

Retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief executive at Telsey Advisory Group , says that inflation has forced consumers to become more discerning with their spending, using more on essentials and trying to keep powder dry, and while it's not enough of a pullback to tank the economy, the longer inflation persists at high levels, the harder it will be for the consumer to keep propping up the econom...

Avi Gilburt, founder of the ElliottWave Trader continues to see the market rallying to new highs but then setting off on a years-long bear market, but in his other role as founder of Safer Banking Research , he notes that the economic downturn will include much more pain for banks, noting that the bank collapses from earlier in 2023 are just the tip of the iceberg, and investors who flee the marke...

Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas , says he expects the economy to go through a recession, but not one that is particularly deep or long, provided that the Federal Reserve's moves work toward reducing inflation. Dailey expects the market to be particularly volatile around news events like inflation and unemployment reports, but says that volatility will remove much of the building...

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management , says she expects a recession and the bad news of that economic downturn will be contagious, with the recession hitting employment, rising unemployment will impact income levels, which hurts spending, and declines in spending injures corporate profits. That cycle could lead to a relatively long sideways period, especially...

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist at the Hartford Funds , says risk markets are pricing in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can orchestrate and navigate the economy to a soft landing, and yet her base case is for a recession and history shows these conditions typically end up in a rougher landing. That's how she sees things playing out, despite the current emotions of...

Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at TruStage , says that while there has been rolling softness in the economy, he believes the Federal Reserve sees inflation as being worse than unemployment, which makes the central bank so determined to curb inflation that it hikes rates and/or delays rate cuts until the jobless rate rises enough to trigger a recession. And while Knapp acknowledges that the F...

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group , says the first-half upside surprise from the stock market and economy has positioned the market for a big second half of the year. Detrick says that when the market posts double-digit gains in the first half of the year, historically it has added another 10 percent in the second half; he's forecasting for this year to continue the trend, with...