MNI FedSpeak Podcasts

The Federal Reserve's desire to pause rate hikes is driven by a belief that recent disinflation would proceed unabated, and could "turn on a dime" if progress appears to stall as it did in the August CPI report, former Fed board economist Steven Kamin tells MNI.

Tyler Meredith says housing squeeze "has become a real metaphor issue of middle-class success” and Justin Trudeau's Liberal government needs a large-scale solution to regain political support lost to the Conservatives. Public anger also radiates towards the Bank of Canada but the central bank isn't being singled out, he says.

Elliot Hughes at Summa Strategies discusses Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's efforts to convince voters upset over the surge in housing costs, saying his recent comments suggest a potential expansion of more direct federal involvement in homebuilding.

Robert Asselin, adviser to the Business Council of Canada and previously to the prime minister and finance minister, says the central bank likely needs high-for-long interest rates that will further crimp badly needed investment. He also says a recent cabinet shuffle put communication ahead of strong policy as Justin Trudeau girds for the next election.

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep tightening monetary policy despite an economy that is already effectively in a downturn, which is being masked by rising consumer borrowing and strong fiscal policy, former Dallas Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth told MNI.

Money market funds are buying Treasuries again, leaving enough liquidity in the banking system for QT to continue for at least two more years, ​former New York Fed trader Joseph Wang tells FedSpeak.

Joseph Tracy, former senior adviser to Fed presidents Robert Kaplan and Bill Dudley, says it will most likely take a mild recession to rein in inflation.

Royal LePage Real Estate Services COO Karen Yolevski says many younger Canadian buyers feel the pressure to buy amid a lack of supply before prices become completely out of reach, even as they also feel the pinch of higher interest rates.

Robert Kaplan, former Dallas Fed President, worries the ripples from robust fiscal policy are making the Fed's job harder, and could yet force it to hike rates up to 6%.

Ex-IMF chief economist Simon Johnson says inflation is coming down quickly enough for the Fed to remain patient as it ponders possible additional rate hikes. We also talked about his new book, 'Power and Progress,' which takes a skeptical look at the idea that technological advances automatically make everyone better off.

Ex-Fed board economist and Peterson Institute fellow Joseph Gagnon discusses his outlook on Fed policy, inflation and employment. He thinks Fed rates will go a bit higher but the central bank will eventually pause as inflation ebbs at the end of 2023. 

Ex-NY Fed economist Dominque Dwor-Frecaut expects a sharp drawdown of reserves as the Treasury rebuilds its cash balances after the debt ceiling resolution. She also explains why the Fed will likely have to raise rates much higher to bring inflation under control.

Wages have not been a major driver of inflation thus far, and growth in pay has benefited those at the bottom of the income ladder, Minneapolis Fed economist Abigail Wozniak tells MNI.

Canadian Federation of Independent Business President Dan Kelly discusses why firms see an economic slowdown but not the recession that many investors are predicting.

Stubborn inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to extend its monetary tightening campaign in a way that raises the risk of a recession, senior Dallas Fed economist Enrique Martinez-Garcia tells MNI.

Tighter credit conditions due to the recent banking crisis mean the Fed doesn't have to raise interest rates as much, former Fed governor Randall Kroszner tells MNI.

The U.S. banking crisis has shifted the focus of Federal Reserve official from the threat of high inflation to the risk of a sharp credit contraction, Fed advisor and KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk tells FedSpeak. 

The U.S. economy faces a possible credit crunch because of the latest banking crisis, which could put a damper on inflation and lead to a lower peak interest rate from the Federal Reserve, ex-Fed board governor Jeremy Stein tells MNI.

Conference Board of Canada chief economist and former central bank researcher Pedro Antunes says restrictive rates will curb consumer spending and bring inflation back to 2% as the central bank predicts.

Inflation will slow enough for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes by summer, former Philadelphia Fed staffer and Wilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley told MNI.

Cleveland Fed research director Edward Knotek tells MNI inflation will come down this year but all too gradually, and inflation expectations for consumers and businesses are a "source of concern.."

Former top BIS and OECD official Bill White says investors and central banks are under-estimating the need for permanently higher interest rates as shortages of workers and materials emerge.

Bill Robson, head of the CD Howe Institute think-tank and its shadow monetary policy council, says the Bank of Canada is likely done raising interest rates this year as past tightening at home and abroad pull inflation back towards the 2% target.

It will likely take inflation many more years than central bankers and financial markets expect to close in on 2% without a deep recession, though this slower path may be optimal for Federal Reserve officials pursuing a dual mandate, Cleveland Fed economists Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman say.

Stronger than desired data will prompt the FOMC to project higher rates for longer when they meet in March, ex-Atlanta Fed chief tells MNI.