MNI FedSpeak Podcasts

The Federal Reserve can't sustain 50 basis point rate cuts if the economy and the labor market remain strong and inflation pressures linger, ex-NY Fed executive Ricks Roberts told MNI. 

Ricardo Reis, an LSE professor who advises the Richmond Fed, the Bank of England and the Riksbank, tells MNI the Fed is likely to take an incremental approach to rate cuts. 

Former Fed board governor Jeremy Stein tells MNI he thinks inflation will be sticky around 2.5%, forcing the Fed to be gradual about the pace of rate cuts barring some serious deterioration in the labor market. 

Tony Stillo, Canadian economist at Oxford Economics and a former Ontario forecasting official, says the Bank of Canada will space out rate cuts given lingering wage and price inflation.

Former Chicago Fed President Charles Evans talks to MNI about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, arguing that the Fed is justified in waiting to see if inflation is heading back sustainably to its 2% goal.

In a wide-ranging interview, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair talks to MNI about Federal Reserve policy, financial stability and the outlook for banking regulation. 

Former St. Louis Fed policy adviser David Andolfatto is worried that fiscal largesse will prevent the Federal Reserve from reaching its 2% inflation goal anytime soon.

Devlin Capital founder Ed Devlin discusses the outlook for Bank of Canada interest-rate cuts this year and how officials will manage sticky inflation and a weakening economy.

The euro area economy and inflationary dynamics are “still far away from a normal post-pandemic situation,” as supply-side shocks still resonate, the European Central Bank’s Director General for Economics at the Oscar Arce told MNI. “We are still seeing the persistent effects of the chain of shocks. It is not only the pandemic but it is the pandemic plus the energy crisis the geopolitical uncertai...

The U.S. Treasury market is still vulnerable to bouts of illiquidity and volatility although reforms like central clearing should help, says Samim Ghamami, an economist who is working on the issue at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Financial market-based measures and surveys proved more reliable than macroeconomic models at estimating the neutral real rate of interest during the abrupt economic fluctuations of the pandemic, European Central Bank economists told MNI, adding that r-star is now at similar levels to pre-Covid times.

Former Fed board governor Kevin Warsh thinks the Fed's signaling of rate cuts this year prematurely loosened financial conditions, making its own job of bringing inflation back to 2% harder.

​Former Ontario forecaster and Canada Director at Oxford Economics Tony Stillo says the central bank will want to avoid public backlash against any misstep towards lower interest rates, and says that will delay a rate cut until June and keep it well above neutral all year.

Federal Reserve officials will probably wait until midyear before lowering interest rates despite market hopes for cuts as early as March, as inflation data stay choppy in coming months before resuming a downward trend, former Fed board economist Seth Carpenter told MNI

The eurozone economy is likely to avoid recession, but inflation should slow sufficiently for the European Central Bank to reduce its benchmark deposit rate by around 150 basis points this year, former ECB economist Riccardo Trezzi told MNI. Markets are moving rapidly to price in cuts, noted Trezzi, who said that while January’s Governing Council meeting should produce little change the possibilit...

The Fed's next move is likely a cut but won't come until later in 2024 because policymakers must be totally sure inflation is not going to plateau around 3% or even reverse recent declines, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard tells MNI.

Stanford Graduate School of Business professor Darrell Duffie cheers the SEC's expansion of mandated central clearing in U.S. Treasury trades, saying the landmark new rule will ultimately lead to a significant improvement in market liquidity.

Export Development Canada Chief Economist Stuart Bergman discusses how sentiment about the global economy has weakened and why companies still face difficulties with inflation.

The Federal Reserve will remain reluctant to cut interest rates too soon or too quickly lest it allow recent progress on inflation to reverse, Priya Misra of JP Morgan Asset Management tells MNI. 

The Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates as inflation continues a steady decline and policymakers worry about the lagged effects of past hikes, former Kansas City Fed President Esther George tells MNI.

The European Central Bank hopes to publish a new series of questions about firms’ expectations for consumer price inflation as part of its Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises next year, and to increase the frequency of SAFE to quarterly from twice a year, ECB senior lead economist Annalisa Ferrando told MNI. A quarterly SAFE will better coordinate it with the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey,...

The Federal Reserve could be done raising interest rates but only if the economy slows and inflation keeps cooperating, former New York Fed economist Matthew Raskin tells MNI. There's a good chance this will not happen in coming months, forcing the Fed to raise rates further, potentially to 6% or higher.

Ahead of Canada's fall fiscal update, Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy President Page sees limited fiscal room even as Canada's finances outshine G7 peers. The government has shown little inclination to set genuine fiscal targets but appears on track for limited moves to tackle voter anger over a housing squeeze, the former parliamentary budget officer says.

The Fed has already raised interest rates too far but could even hike them further given misplaced concerns about inflation persistence, ex-Boston Fed research director Jeff Fuhrer tells MNI. We also discuss his new book, "The Myth That Made Us."]