Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 75 basis points and tells us they saved the US economy from recession. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Australian cash rate is rising with the US effective fed funds rate as rates “normalise” to remove extraordinary pandemic stimulus. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Michael shows how to use the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator at chicagofed.org to see if a US recession is near. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.insta...

Michael Knox talks us through US stocks, Australian stocks, and what a full-employment economy will be like. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

US GDP growth should slow but low US unemployment should bring rising living standards. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Movements in the Australian cash rate have been following the “effective FED funds rate“. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The RBA forecast for core inflation has risen to 4.75% in 2022. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We update our models of US and Australian equities for the selloff in the US and Australian bonds. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We show how to examine the US yield curve to find out when recession is near. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Fed intends to Sell $US720 billion of Treasury bonds and $US420 billion of Mortgage-backed securities per year, to force up US long-term yields and slow the US Economy. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitt...

How US budget deficits have driven the Australian commodities boom. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Unemployment is the lowest in decades. Scarce Labour will now drive up real wages. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Feds Rate Hikes and quantitative tightening haul down US inflation. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

War risk makes it impossible for ships to get insurance to load Russian cargo in the northern black sea. This cripples Russian exports of cargoes of Russia’s own oil and its own wheat. Russians have an incentive to end the war sooner rather than later. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.co...

Ukraine crisis should temper Fed tightening. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #ukraine #russia

The Germans are the important players not the Americans. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We analyse how bearish US stock market sentiment in fact suggests heathy stock market returns. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

High Inflation drives down real wages. The result of all this stimulus is that US unemployment in December fell to 3.9%. This is full employment on any measure. At this level of a low unemployment, the US economy is running out of people to give extra jobs to. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.fac...

The Fed is supporting the US economy first and fighting US inflation second; ASX 200 fair value is 7350 Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Jay Powell takes the long handle to strike inflation. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We see the expansion of the US budget deficit which leads to the boom in Australian export prices and discover the best is yet to come. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Chinese steel production Olympic dive this year, rebound next year. Iron ore prices fell with steel production this year. Both will rise next year. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Brainard is brilliant, but Powell a better leader. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We look at the US credit market to find two indicators of stock market health. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We look at the RBA statement on monetary policy for November, where growth is strong but inflation is not. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans. Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Economy #RBA #Inflation