Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Intense volatility on the rand trading in a wide range during the afternoon session. It briefly traded above R18.50 before racing back down to the R18.30 handle it seems comfortable at the moment. The volatility is purely offshore driven, with US Treasury Yields soaring initially as US markets opened and we saw the 10yr yield rise to 4.37%, the highest level since 2007. The pound also received a h...

A range-bound trading session for the rand has seen the local unit move in a 15cent range for the day. The euro remains at the mercy of the and has been tracking sideways over the past few trading sessions, while the UK’s attempt to stabilize their markets has seen the pound trade in a wide range of 1.1260 to 1.14. The uncertainty around the pound and hawkish sentiment over future Fed interest rat...

While most of the market has traded sideways today, we have seen the British Pound firmly on the front foot. The Pound went all the way from 1.1180 to 1.1414 today as new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed most of the mini-budget tax measures. The changes will see a planned cut in income tax scrapped, while a cap on energy bills that had been due to last two years is now only guaranteed until April n...

One could argue that after yesterday’s PPI print would indicate a higher-than-expected CPI figure for today, and it was precisely what happened. The market’s expectation was exceeded and the 8.2% YoY figure led to the market now fully pricing in a 75bps hike from the Fed in November, with a 50% chance for another 50bps hike in December. Volatility after the print was exceptional, with the rand los...

US producer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.2%, which gives no respite to the inflation narrative. The USD dollar continues on its merry way with the JPY up at 24-year lows again and US equity futures pointing to a weaker open. This PPI number suggests that an upside surprise on the CPI is possible tomorrow. USDZAR pushed above R18.20 after the release and will continue...

The rand has been trading fairly range bound between R18.07 and R18.17 as we wait for tomorrow’s FOMC minutes of the September meeting and the CPI print on Thursday. The euro has been trading in a similar fashion, with the dollar not gaining ground nor losing ground among its major peers. The pound, however, has been slightly more volatile but ends the day in line with this morning’s open. The Sep...

With the US being out of the market today, we have seen the market trading in a fairly subdued manner. The rand and other emerging market currencies enjoyed the reprieve from the US dollar flexing its muscle, and the rand has strengthened within eyesight of the R18.00 level after opening the day around the R 18.18 level. With the amount of data out this week, it is almost a given that the market w...

Initial Weekly jobless claims increased from 209,000 to 219,000, but most of the jobless claims have been ascribed to Hurricane Ian wreaking havoc on the state of Florida. The interesting data set of the release was the announced job cuts jumped 46% to 29,989 in September. We did see the US dollar briefly losing some steam, but it has roared back with a vengeance and is currently trading at 0.9830...

The Dollar has once again bounced quite strongly as the US markets opened this afternoon with the Pound falling to 1.1250 after nearly hitting 1.1500 earlier today. The Euro has also fallen to .9860 after having nearly reached parity earlier. Wall Street has opened sharply weaker as risk sentiment turns negative and US bond yields rise once more. The Rand is tracking the weaker majors and is curre...

A softer dollar has been the main driving force intraday as markets take a breather from the rampant dollar we saw during September. Job openings in the US plunged by more than 1 million during the month of August, potentially showing an early sign that the labor market gap in the US is beginning to close and led to the dollar being sold off late afternoon. The euro and pound have both rejoiced fr...

A softer dollar led to the euro and pound grinding slightly higher during the day, with emerging market currencies trading in a similar fashion. Late afternoon we saw US manufacturing data for September coming in lower than expected, and has spurred some volatility into a market that has seen a dull day. The rand traded in a narrow 10cent range for the most part of the day but traded to the lower...

The market volatility continues with the pound still trading in a wide range, but ending the week close to levels week saw at the end of last week. The pound traded between 1.1025 and 1.1234 in this session, but much improved after trading at the all-time low for cable traded at 1.0350 on Monday. The euro has followed suit and consolidated towards the back end of the week, after inflation figures...

Emerging Markets under pressure In the last hour of trading, we have seen the Rand and other EM's under pressure. And it seems that markets in the US are turning markets more "risk-averse". We have seen the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down by more than 2% in early morning trade. The Rand has jumped from seemingly being very comfortable below the R18.00 level, but it has jumped to R18.1000. The key i...

After the excessive movements of the last couple of days today, we did see some relative calm in the market, with the Rand trading in a 15-cent range since the South African market opened this morning. The Rand is currently trading at R 17.94 and seems rather comfortable below the R18.00 handle. The US dollar is also slightly stronger this afternoon, with the greenback flirting with the 0.9600 lev...

The sharp move on the pound saw markets in utter turmoil this morning, leading to the rand breaking above the R18.00 mark against the dollar. Further pressure has been placed on the euro, with markets remaining sceptical of a recovery in economic growth in the eurozone, but we have seen some recovery on the currency front, which is trading at .9660 this afternoon. The pound is trading at 1.0815 ag...

Risky assets under pressure It seems like the same old story but we have seen more evidence that the US dollar is currently king of the Forex market. The US dollar is within reach of the 0,97 level against the Euro and it seems that little is going to stop the Dollar train at the minute. The dollar index is currently trading at 112.50. The latest move into the US dollar has stretched the Rand a li...

Central Banks do not disappoint What has been a critical week in terms of central bank meetings, we have seen the SARB, BoJ, and BoE all meeting the expectations of the market. Earlier today, we saw the Bank of England hiking by 50bps, while the SARB followed the FOMC and raised by 75bps. The rand traded softer during the local rate announcement, with the SARB lowering expectations of the outlook...

Calm before the storm The Rand stayed sideways for most of the day as the market awaits the FOMC interest rate decision later on today. The fear is that the FOMC deviates from its expected 75-basis point hike and a 100-point basis hike should see EMs under pressure and a hike of 50-basis points would see a markedly different market than we walked into this morning. We do however believe that there...

Like yesterday we saw the Rand trading between R17.60/80 in what was almost a carbon copy of the day's trading. We did see the Rand test the R17.80 level briefly as the US entered the market, with the US equities taking a nose dive at the open. That risk-off sentiment was fueled by the US dollar trading stronger swiftly after the US opened. The US dollar touched 0.9956 against the Euro but has sin...

While stage 6 load shedding certainly did not help the cause of the Rand, we have seen broad base weakness in EM's as the stronger US dollar. There is also a  "fear" that the Fed could hike rates by 100 basis points, and this has sent a little shiver through EM as we have seen the Rand in sight of the R17.80 level. With the Fed announcing their rate decision on Wednesday, it could be a case o...

The dollar has been king for some time now, and the trend continued during the course of the week. The start of the week saw the market show some interest in riskier assets until US CPI immediately stopped that. Since Tuesday, we have seen Emerging Markets experience sustained pressure as the rand, and its peers were sold off aggressively, while the Euro traded back to levels we have been used to...

The rand reached a new high for the year as markets continue to trade risk-off and flood towards the dollar. After reaching a high of R17.57, we have since stabilized back to levels close to this morning’s open and look to close below the R17.50 handle. The euro and pound have not traded too much on the back foot today, as it has been EM’s that were under pressure the most. The Chinese Yuan flirte...

One of the saving graces at the moment for the Rand could well be in the way of commodity Prices. We have seen Platinum, Palladium, and Gold all looking quite robust against the US data, with most commodities trading in the Green at the moment. 

CPI brings back volatility Over the past few days, we have seen a softer dollar, but the gains made by other currencies got wiped in a matter of minutes. The August inflation print came out higher than the market expected, and we saw currencies across the board trade back at similar levels to Friday. The euro looked to trade above 1.02 against the dollar earlier this morning but has since flirted...

Risk-on start to the week The EUR/USD traded like a proverbial yo-yo today, with the Euro almost breaking the 1.0200 level in earlier trade. The pair has since sagged back to 1.0117, but we have seen how much any positive news out of Ukraine has buoyed European Markets, and this could be an indicator of what volatility lies ahead in the pair when the war gets thrown into the Central Bank and infla...