Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

In this week’s episode we’re joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit, to discuss the ongoing uncertain environment. As economists we love to talk through scenarios. We’re always considering the upside and downside risks when forming our view. David however tends to pitch his tent in camp downside...Tune in as we cover the latest on business appetite, credit dyn...

We’re back after a week off, and we’re still sitting, waiting, wishing for tariff de-escalation. Trade talks remain underway between several countries and the US. But any announcements are yet to be seen. And no one knows if the US trade talks with China have started. Trump says they have. China says they haven’t. We’re stuck in limbo. Time is of the essence, and the clock is ticking. The longer n...

The US’s reciprocal tariffs have been put on ice for 90 days. Several countries are coming to the negotiating table. It’s still incredibly difficult to say with any certainty what will result. But we take a crack at mapping three possible paths that the global economy could take from here. We unpack what each scenario could mean for the state of our economy, including the implications for central...

We’re delving into the aftershock of Trump’s Obliteration, sorry Liberation, Day. Markets are in mayhem with HUGE drops across equities, commodity currencies and interest rates. The so-called reciprocal tariffs were worse than feared, especially for emerging Asia. The focus is now on retaliatory action. And China is already striking back. Things have only just begun. We were joined by Kiwibank Tre...

Our Financial Markets Trader Mieneke Perniskie joins us on this week’s episode to talk all about currency. Our call on the Kiwi hitting 55c played out largely as we had thought. And we’re now looking to an eventual climb to 60c by year end. The here and now though sees the NZD rangebound at current levels with growing global downside risks. But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also...

We know, we know! Why are we still talking about 2024? Well, we promise this is the last time (maybe). We recently received the latest economic report card. And given it shows us crawling out of recession, we figured it was worth covering the first step in the Kiwi economy’s recovery. We take a closer look at the industries driving growth, as well as those that are still facing challenges. But let...

This week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Higher meat and dairy export prices, strong production, and a favourable NZ dollar should provide a meaningful boost to export earnings and incomes for our farmers and rural regions. Looking to our export services, tourism levels have also edged their wa...

The same uncertainty and volatility from Trump 2.0 that is causing big swings in wholesale rates is also wreaking havoc across equities. We were very fortunate to have Mike Taylor, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pie Funds, join us on a special bonus episode to discuss his view on equity markets. And strategies to navigate investing in these volatile times. It's a jam-packed episode. W...

Ross Weston, Kiwibank Head of Balance Sheet, is back on the podcast and it’s another jam-packed episode. In the wake of Trump 2.0, global uncertainty is dominating headlines and markets. Wholesale interest rates have seen big swings up and down. Beyond that, we cover expectations of future RBNZ meetings. Always one step ahead, market traders are already looking beyond the current cutting cycle and...

The housing market is prepped, primed and positioned for a pick up. Interest rates are the biggest driver of moves in the market. But recent changes to the Brightline test, CCCFA, interest deductibility and so on should also help investors off the sideline. The RBNZ also tinkered with its macroprudential toolkit easing up its handbrake on credit growth. We go through each key change and its likely...

The RBNZ cut the cash rate to 3.75%, and signalled more cuts to come. With inflation now stabilising, the economy needs relief. In this episode, we run through the RBNZ’s latest policy statement and fresh forecasts. The Kiwi economy is set to recover this year, but there remains key uncertainties. There are signs of improvement in more timely activity indicators, but the balance of risks to the ou...

This week we’re diving into the power of inflation expectations. History has proven expectations of inflation are self-reinforcing. Expect low inflation and low inflation you shall receive. Expect high inflation and high inflation it is. The great news is that here at home, inflation expectations are freshly anchored at the RBNZ 2% sweet spot. We discuss the importance of the move, and how it shou...

Unemployment is higher, employment growth remains in contraction, workers are being forced to the exits, and even total hours worked are in decline. The labour market continues to soften. We're delving into the details, including the demographic and the industry breakdown on who felt the brunt of the labour market slow down over 2024. With 32,000 jobs lost, there’s a lot of pain out there. Most of...

This week we take a look at the mortgage book across Aotearoa. In anticipation of further rate cuts from the RBNZ the book has shortened up with 81% of borrowers fixing for one year or less. It’s a gamble that’s paying off. Naturally, the question now turns to when borrowers should fix for longer. We give our two cents. The move to shorter-dated rates is also a large driver in why we expect a reco...

We're back from break and feeling good about 2025. In this episode, we cover our expectations for the Kiwi economy this year - a year of two halves. The first half sees the economy is in an awkward phase. Confidence has improved, but activity is still depressed. Growth however should pick up in the second half as interest rate cuts feed through to the economy. Things are falling into place for a b...

In the last episode of the year, Hamish Wilkinson is back to talk to Jarrod and Mary Jo about the Kiwi currency. They go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. They also throw Hamish a curly cross that makes him try to phone a friend...Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary & insights here:http...

Black Friday deals are everywhere, and it’s been hard to escape the ads since mid-November. But what’s the real impact on consumer behaviour? Join Kiwibank Economist Mary Jo Vergara as she unpacks the latest card spending data from Black Friday, offering valuable insights into spending patterns and what we can expect this festive season, including Boxing Day. Tune in for a deep dive into shifting...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 13th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is a detailed run-down of the Reserve Bank's November Monetary Policy Statement. Where are interest rates heading from here? And what does this mean for Kiwi households and businesses? They discuss it all. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow their economic commentary...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 12th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi commercial property. Just like the housing market, commercial property has been hit hard by the Reserve Bank’s heavy handed hikes. But the downturn across commercial property goes beyond a story of high interest rates. Since Covid, and the lockdowns that followed, behavioural...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 11th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi housing market. As Kiwi, we're obsessed with housing and it has been volatile over the last few years. The Kiwibank Economists look deep into the data - from house prices, to listings, and days to sell - to talk about the latest moves in the housing market across Aotearoa. Hos...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 10th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. In this episode, the Economists are talking about the cooling Kiwi labour market. Weak economic activity following two years of recession is now resulting in job losses. They cover rising unemployment, where it's heading and what this means for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Plus, in line with the name of the...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 9th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.  In this episode they're talking about one of the biggest issues the world is facing right now. Climate change. More and more we’re seeing the effects of climate change in our daily life. Floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. They’re all becoming more frequent. So, what does this mean for the economy? The team have t...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their eighth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. The RBNZ was among the first and most aggressive central banks in hiking interest rates, post-Covid. But in a recent speech, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr signalled that they can be “more incremental” on the way down. This week, our Economists give their take on how incremental is incremental. This week they also...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their seventh episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the cost of living crisis which has significantly impacted Kiwi households, particularly those with lower incomes. Everyday essentials like food and fuel have risen faster than incomes. While these households struggle with tight budgets, recent trends indicate a shift, with pay rises...

The Kiwibank Economists are back for their sixth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the RBNZ’s October policy decision and what that means for our growth forecasts. Later in the episode, Ross Weston, Head of Balance Sheet at Kiwibank joins the Economists to talk all about rates. They chat about how financial markets reacted to the RBNZ's 50bp rate cut, and how the sha...