Market Watch

HSBC Asian Economist Wellian Wiranto in Singapore is of the view that BNM is keeping its reputation for being ahead of the curve with pre-emptive policies. Predicts further upticks in inflation prints in coming months and higher chance of appreciation in RM. Still see growth as being very strong and steady, above 5% for 2011 and 2012. Might see soft patch in export print in coming months due to Ja...

Tim Mulholland, MD of China-America Capital Company, Chicago talked about why commodities plunged the most since 2009 - what started the ball rolling, why the panic. Commenting on recent jobless claims figures, real economy and asset inflation have diverged, and how unemployment is a structural problem in the States. He likened the debt ceiling issue to playing with fire in the dynamite factory an...

BPAM Pricing Manager Paige Tan talked about why the market is divided over expectations of whether Bank Negara will raise rates at its MPC meeting today. If rates go up, short end of yield curve more vulnerable to adjustment. Short tenure notes may have a downward revaluation. Whether investors would take money out of the bond market if interest rates go up, depends on their investment strategy. C...

Ben LeBrun of CMC Markets, Sydney expects some form of slowdown for Australia's economy, following signs of economic slowdown in China. He goes on to tell us why he likes Aussie banking stocks though Westpac and ANZ Banking Group have warned that credit growth is likely to remain weak. Aussie retail sales figures for March, out later today, are expected to continue theme of soft consumer spending,...

Benny Lee of Next View Sdn Bhd on KLCI explains why he'd sell in May, but not go away. FBM KLCI trading range from 1,525 to 1,545 for this week. He recommends staying out until the market shows clear direction. Wait until break out above the resistance level of 1,540. No impact from Singapore elections as results are rather predictable. Crude palm oil (CPO) trading around average; price moving sid...

Dr Michael A Yoshikami of YCMNet Advisors in San Francisco expects positive after effects from Osama's death, and reminded us to not underestimate partisan politics in the States. He also talked about the impact of bin Laden's death on defense stocks. He also discussed his expectations for initial jobless claims and unemployment rate for April 2011, and his take on General Motors' sales, which exc...

Credit Suisse Economist Wu Kun Lung in Singapore concurs with the IMF that inflation has not cut into growth yet, and talks about unchecked increases in oil and food prices shaving growth across Asia over the next two years. He also discussed food inflation in greater depth. He expects only short term impact on sentiment from Osama bin Laden's death on crude oil prices. He talks about the relation...

Malcolm E Polley, President andCIO of Stewart Capital Advisors in Pennsylvania sees much uncertainty in the markets over the likely fallout from the killing of Osama bin Laden. He also talked about whether he feel safer post-Osama's death. He expect Osama's death to continue driving the markets for the full week. Separately, he expects the Chinese economy to slow down, leading to insufficient jobs...

Jason Chong, CEO of Manulife Asset Management talked about the impact of speculation about Malaysia general elections taking place in 2012, on the FBM KLCI. He also discussed his views on consumer stocks, motor stocks, crude oil prices and themes he's pursuing. He ended with whether he'd be selling in May. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tim Mulholland of China America Capital Company in Chicago views US GDP for Q1 of 1.8% as transitory, explains why and what's the impact on investor sentiment. He tells us what else he would have liked for Ben Bernanke to answer, and notes similiarities between Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan approach to problem-solving: printing more money. He talks about how low unemployment would have to go bef...

Suresh Ramanathan of CIMB said Fed Reserve's announcements were mostly in line with expectations except for the raised inflation forecast. Previous inflation guidance was at 1.7%, now at 2.8%.  So, not much impact on Ringgit Dollar relationship.  Sees RM at 2.90 in next 2-3 weeks, but sees it as unsustainable,  moving to 3.01 come June, explains why. He's sitting on the fence where...

Ben LeBrun, market analyst and commentator at CMC Markets in Sydney, says Fed Reserve announcements would give some confidence in US markets which translates well for Asia Pac, Australia. Ben Bernanke usually dovish, nothing much changed from what he said. LeBrun also talked about the impact on tourism and manufacturing in Australia.  Likelihood of RBA rate hikes depends on upcoming data, con...

OCBC Currency Strategist Emmanuel Ng in Singapore attributes the Ringgit's strength to an interplay of positive external environment in favour of RM with domestic rate hike expectations. Though market expecting rate hikes in May, he explains why he thinks rates will be on hold until second half of this year. He'll be looking out for how Fed plans to turn the ship around. He has a nagging suspicion...

Dr Michael Yoshikami, YCMNET Advisors said it's likely there's an implicit policy that dollar weakness helps economic recovery. He's expecting more of the same from the Fed ie things are getting better etc. QE2 until June, from Ben Bernanke's much touted news conference. He expects the Fed to continue to talk interest rates down. Where instituting meaningful tax increases are concerned, the issue...

The Edge reported that sources say, the Sarawak Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Authority ie SALCRA is eyeing a 30.3% stake in Sarawak Plantation, now held by private company Cermat Ceria Sdn Bhd. We talked about Sarawak Plantation's vital stats, the plantation theme and a view that there's no real need for Cermat Ceria to sell its stake. We also asked Sarawak Plantation what they thought ab...

Malcolm E Polley, President and CIO of Stewart Capital Advisors wasn't surprised by pick up in US' housing purchases for March, but can't read from one month if there's a trend in place. Markets are weighed down by concerns that they may not be able to do much better than they already are, as well as commodity cost concerns. To remain directionless until Ben Bernanke's comments are out. Pretty goo...

TA Research's Aaron Tan is of the view that Star Publications proposal to raise up to RM750 million from the capital market is in order to fund existing operations, especially its print segment. On whether it could be war chesting given rising expectations of an impending general elections, he thinks not. He expects Star to continue with its stable dividend payments. He maintains his BUY call on S...

Dodge O Dorland, Chairman and CIO of Landor & Fuest Capital Managers in New York would ask Ben Bernanke, if he had the chance, whether it's more important to raise rates too early vs. too late in the short to intermediate term, in the long term, and what has to happen to transition the short term decision for the benefit longer term. For US Q1 GDP, he's anticipating a growth rate of 1.9%, whic...

Mohshin Aziz of Maybank IB Research tells us how Tenaga Nasional Bhd's (TNB) second quarter financial results compare with its regional peers, and two main reasons for larger-than-expected drop in TNB's net profit. He also explains how he arrived at an average coal cost of USD115/mt for FY11. He ends with his rationale of a lowered target price for the stock from RM5.73 to RM5.40. TNB's second qua...

Tim Mulholland, China-America Capital Company in Chicago thinks the US government is unlikely to take major risks as elections are due next year. He also commented on whether euphoria in world stocks, which hit their highest level since July 2008, is sustainable.  As it's earnings season, discussed Blackstone, Black Rock and Morgan Stanley's results, whether chemical companies such as Dupont...

Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Asian Economist at OSK DMG in Singapore sees March CPI rate of 3% as a sign that inflation is stabilising, sees 2.8% average inflation for this year. Rate pause likely in May, maybe hike in July. As food is a significant part of basket in Asia, key issue is how government manages supply distribution to ease potential disruptions so that inflation will remain under control. On t...

Ben LeBrun of CMC Markets in Sydney explains why investors can't breathe easy this week despite an upbeat earnings season driving commodities higher and the Aussie dollar to a 29-year high versus the dollar. The most important macro theme at the moment is in Europe - Greece, Spain and Italy issues. Themes have not gone anywhere, still nervous. Views terrific earnings out of US as a godsend. Awaiti...

Dr Michael A Yoshikami, YCMNET Advisors sees a high possibility of securing a deal with Congress to target $4 trillion in long-term deficit reduction. He views S&P's well timed downgrade as more a reflection of the United States' underlying problems. He also gave his views on China's reaction to S&P's negative outlook. The trajectory of dollar and creditworthiness of US is under threat unl...

Ker Chung Yang of Phillip Futures in Singapore explains why he is inclined towards lower export figures for the first twenty days of April. He also talked about external factors hampering the crude palm oil (CPO) futures market, such as the South American soybean currently being harvested. Explains why he's concerned about delay in corn planting in US. Factors which could help the market to climb...

Malcolm E Polley, President and CIO of Stewart Capital Advisors, Johnstown, Pennsylvania says US rating downgrade will add more urgency to talks between Congress and the White House. Even so, he hopes quantitative easing will end this summer. In response to Obama administration's defence that S&P's outlook underestimates the ability of America's leaders to come together to address difficult fi...