Manifold

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. Follow him on X @TaylorOgan . Steve and Taylor discuss:  0:00 Introduction 1:02 Taylor's background and why he moved his firm to China 20:43 China post-pandemic and economic dynamism 33:43 China dominance in electric vehicles; LIDAR 56:55 Investment research: factory and site visits 1:06:52 US-China competition...

Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security. Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/ Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists: https://bharatkarnad.com/2020/12/06...

Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His new book is The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. Steve and Yasheng discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:11 From Beijing to Harvard in the 1980s 15:29 Civil service exams and Hua...

TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang . Steve and TP discuss: 0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology 5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC 23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics 28:21 Impact on Qualcomm 36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China semiconduc...

Steve discusses 10 key graphs related to meritocracy and university admissions. Predictive power of SATs and other factors in elite admissions decisions. College learning outcomes - what do students learn? The four paths to elite college admission. Laundering prestige at the Ivies. Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1n-nwoeKe_DcA5tJxTwqTeZBEY7nObxkujKLxVfAzRAY/edit?usp=sharing CLA and...

Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist. Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&ab_channel=PeterSantenello An earlier Aella interview with Reason: https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/ Steve and Aella discuss: (00:00)...

Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements. Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs. Tim and Steve discuss: Tim...

Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan. Sample articles: Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/ Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02...

Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun! They discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses 17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon? 29...

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions pre...

In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus. AI. 0:00 Introduction 1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI  14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone? 30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans? 34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside 41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs. Artific...

David Paul Goldman is an American economic strategist and author, best known for his series of online essays in the Asia Times under the pseudonym Spengler with the first column published January 1, 2000. Steve and David discuss: 0:00 Introduction 2:22 David’s background in music, finance, and Asia 16:55 Looking back at the financial crisis 23:04 Rise of the Chinese economy 29:44 How Huawei’s stre...

This week's episode is based on a lecture Steve gave to an audience of theoretical physicists at Oxford University. The topic is artificial intelligence and large language models. Lecture slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xiMeeRMVpB-_W66BnyRyUAtrLlUwQNlndqbVcguKK8U/edit?usp=sharing Chapter markers: 0:00 Introduction 2:31 Deep Learning and Neural Networks; history and mathematical res...

In collaboration with her husband Malcolm Collins, Simone is an author (The Pragmatist's Guide to Life, Relationships, Sexuality, Governance, and Crafting Religion), education reform advocate ( CollinsInstitute.org ), pronatalism activist ( Pronatalist.org ), and business operator ( Travelmax.com ). Note: the YouTube version of this interview includes video of Steve and Simone. Steve and Simone di...

Katherine Dee is a writer, journalist, and internet historian. Steve and Katherine discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:15 Katherine’s early life and background 21:52 Mass shootings, Manifestos, Nihilism, and Incels 59:35 Trad values, Sex negativity vs Porn and Fleshlights 1:28:54 Elon Musk’s plans for Twitter 1:33:00 TikTok 1:41:41 Adderall 1:44:07 AI/GPT impact on writers and journos 1:49:30 Gen-X gener...

Marc Martinez is the director of Dream Big, a documentary about Gold's Gym and the golden age of bodybuilding in Venice and Santa Monica in the 1970s. Steve and Marc discuss: (01:34) - Marc's background in bodybuilding (05:36) - Reflections on bodybuilding in Southern California (26:03) - Setting the record straight on steroid use (33:52) - Frank Zane (38:33) - Robby Robinson (40:32) - Butler, Gai...

Gilles Saint-Paul is Professeur à l'Ecole Normale Supérieure. He is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique in Engineering and received his PhD from MIT in Economics. Gilles and Steve discuss the French elite education system, the Yellow Vest movement, French politics and populism, and Saint-Paul’s paper on marriage markets and hypergamy. 0:00 Introduction 1:43 Gilles Saint-Paul's background and educati...

Steve discusses the competition between Microsoft and Google, the competition between the U.S. and China in STEM, China’s new IVF policy, and a Science Magazine survey on polygenic screening of embryos. 00:00 Introduction 02:37 Bing vs Bard: LLMs and hallucination 20:52 China demographics & STEM 34:29 China IVF 40:28 Survey on embryo screening in Science References: Bing vs Bard and Hallucinat...

Steve discusses Large Language Model AIs such as ChatGPT.  0:00 How do LLMs work? 10:22 Impact of ChatGPT 15:21 AI landscape 24:13 Hallucination and Focus 33:09 Applications 39:29 Future Landscape References: Manifold interview with John Schulman of OpenAI: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/john-schulman-openai-and-recent-advances-in-artificial-intelligence-16 Blog posts on word vectors and appro...

Dominic Cummings is a major historical figure in UK politics. He helped save the Pound Sterling, led the Vote Leave campaign, Got Brexit Done, and guided the Tories to a landslide general election victory. His time in No. 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson's Chief Advisor was one of the most interesting and impactful periods in modern UK political history. Dom and Steve discuss all of this and mor...

Sahil Lavingia founded Gumroad at the age of 19 and built it into a leading digital commerce platform. He is the author of The Minimalist Entrepreneur and an investor in early-stage startups. Steve and Sahil discuss: 0:00 Sahil's upbringing and start as an entrepreneur 9:35 Tech founder at 19 and VC investment from Kleiner-Perkins 24:15 Backstory of Gumroad 30:30 Crowdfunding Gumroad 37:09 Experim...

Geoffrey Miller is an American evolutionary psychologist, author, and a professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico. He is known for his research on sexual selection in human evolution. For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Miller_%28psychologist%29 Steve and Geoffrey discuss: 0:00 Geoffrey Miller's background, childhood, and how he became interested in psychology 14:44...

Anna I. Krylov (Russian: Анна Игоревна Крылова) is a Professor of Chemistry at the University of Southern California (USC), working in the field of theoretical and computational quantum chemistry. Krylov is an outspoken advocate of freedom of speech and academic freedom. She is a founding member of the Academic Freedom Alliance and a member of its academic leadership committee. Her paper, The Peri...

Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam. Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup...

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern. Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.   Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissi...