Main Street Briefing

Three regulatory shifts that put time and money back in your pocket: the 1099-NEC threshold jumps from $600 to $2,000 and the 1099-K resets to $20,000, the 20% Qualified Business Income deduction is now permanent, and Beneficial Ownership reporting stays paused for most U.S. businesses. Alex explains what each one means and the exact move to make.

82% of small business employers now use AI, running a median of five tools — but the same technology is being turned against them. Alex covers why 88% of ransomware attacks now hit small businesses, why multifactor authentication is the cheapest protection you're probably not using, and how machine-speed attacks are outrunning human-speed defenses.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate for a fourth straight meeting, keeping prime at 6.75% — so stop budgeting for a cut that isn't coming. Alex explains why SBA loan rates are now the lowest since 2022, why the affordable capital is already on the table, and why cash flow — not profit — is the number one challenge for three in four small businesses.

Small business job openings bounced back in June, with 62% of owners hiring or trying to hire — but 84% of them still can't find qualified applicants. Alex covers the soft national jobs report (just 57,000 jobs added), why 3.5% wage growth is losing to 4%-plus inflation, and why owners are pulling back on raises at exactly the wrong moment.

The CBP refund portal for the invalidated emergency tariffs is live, with roughly $166 billion up for grabs — but small importers without a customs broker risk getting shut out. Alex breaks down how to file a CAPE declaration, why 67% of owners say tariffs still squeezed them this year, and why customers are buying early to beat the next price hike.

Today is the observed Independence Day federal holiday — banks, markets, and the Fed's payment rails are closed, so ACH and direct deposits won't settle until Monday, July 6. Americans will spend about $8.6 billion on food and $2.2 billion on fireworks, and AAA projects a record 72.2 million travelers.

Small business AI adoption crossed 82%, with the typical business running about five tools. The same wave is fueling attacks — over 33,000 cyberattacks in early 2026 disguised as popular AI tools, nearly five times last year — and business email compromise still drives $2.77 billion in annual losses.

More than 20 cities and states raise their minimum wage today (Alaska $14, Portland metro $16.80, D.C. $18.40, San Francisco $19.61, many CA healthcare workers $25), lifting overtime math. New state laws take effect on all-in pricing, right-to-repair, and allergen labeling, and the US/Mexico/Canada hit a July 1 trade-pact checkpoint.

May payrolls came in at 172,000, nearly double expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Job openings surged while actual hires stayed low. Consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 even as retail sales jumped 0.9% to $763.7 billion.

Phase two of the CBP tariff refund portal opens today for reconciliation and antidumping entries from the struck-down IEEPA duties — refunds aren't automatic. Federal buyers are also being steered toward American-made suppliers, and EDWOSB firms face a June 30 audit deadline.

Retail sales rose a strong 0.9% in May for a fourth straight monthly gain, but economists warn the spring's tax-refund cushion is fading. Inflation hit a three-year high, the force behind the Fed's hawkish turn, and the SBA's enhanced 90% Grocery Guarantee delivered its first $30M to food retailers.

AI has shifted from answering questions to taking actions, and 82% of small employers have now invested in it. But the same technology is powering a surge in scams, with a federal advisory warning of deepfakes and voice cloning aimed at your payments. And gas prices finally dipped under $4 a gallon.

While big employers sit frozen, small businesses posted their best hiring outlook of the year, with firms under 20 employees creating the most jobs in the country. New grads squeezed out of corporate trainee programs are turning to Main Street in record numbers, while small-group health premiums are set to rise a median 11% in 2026.

After the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, refunds are flowing, but more than two-thirds of small importers weren't ready to file and are stuck while big firms get paid. Cash-flow management is back as owners' number-one worry, and a major card-network settlement caps standard consumer credit-card fees at 1.25% for eight years.

The Fed held rates a fourth straight meeting but its new dot plot points to a possible hike this year, not the cut owners wanted. Small business optimism slipped again in May with taxes overtaking inflation as the top worry, and the SBA raised the minimum credit score on its smallest 7(a) loans while doubling the combined 7(a)/504 limit to $10M.

Retail spending is up 4.9 percent year-over-year through April and consumers haven't stopped — but they've shifted toward necessities and away from discretionary categories. Small business capital investment is at its lowest level since March 2009, with only 16 percent of owners planning outlays in the next six months. And supply chain disruptions are accelerating just as pre-tariff invent...

Today is Juneteenth. Black-owned businesses generate over $207 billion in annual revenue and employ nearly five million people — but the capital access gap remains the primary structural barrier, with 70 percent of Black business owners relying on personal savings to finance their businesses. With the Fed holding rates again, SBA loans are running 9 to 11.5 percent APR and the math on new debt is...

Health insurance costs for small businesses are up 9.5 percent this year, on pace to top $17,000 per employee annually — but most owners don't know about ICHRA alternatives that convert a variable group premium into a fixed cost. AI tools have crossed a meaningful threshold: the leading platforms now complete full business workflows without step-by-step human input, at under $100 a month. And...

The Fed announces its June rate decision this afternoon — and while no change is expected, what Powell says about the future path matters more than the number. Tariffs are costing small businesses an estimated $85 billion a year, and with pre-tariff inventory buffers nearly depleted, the full cost hits this summer. Plus: the most significant overhaul of federal procurement rules in 40 years takes...

The Federal Reserve opens its two-day June meeting today with a rate hold almost certain — prime stays at 6.75 percent and business borrowing costs won't budge. Meanwhile, NFIB's May optimism report shows small business confidence below its 52-year average for a third straight month, with supply chain disruptions up sharply and capital spending at a 17-year low. And while owners are pullin...

Health insurance premiums are rising at a median 11% this year — with some insurers spiking 32%. Minimum wage increases are still rolling through 88 jurisdictions, and the compression effect means your real payroll exposure is bigger than the headline rate. Plus, consumer spending is holding — but bifurcating sharply by income level with implications for Main Street heading into summer. Alex wraps...

AI adoption among small businesses has nearly doubled since 2023, but most owners have no policy governing how employees use it — a gap that's becoming a real liability. AI-powered phishing attacks are hitting record rates, with the average breach costing $254K. And AI pricing tools are delivering 10%+ revenue gains for businesses using them correctly. Thursday's episode covers all three s...

The Federal Reserve confirmed rate cuts are off the table through at least the summer, keeping small business borrowing costs elevated — but the math on waiting may be worse than you think. New SBA loan rules took effect June 1 with a tighter debt-coverage requirement. And credit card processing fees are getting more transparent, with a real opportunity to negotiate better terms. Alex covers all t...

Businesses spent 2025 absorbing tariff costs. That's flipping in 2026 — JPMorgan estimates up to 80% of tariff burden will pass to customers by year-end. Plus, the USMCA trade deal enters formal review this summer with real implications for small businesses importing from Canada or Mexico. Alex covers what's happening and what to do right now.

The Paychex Small Business Jobs Index just hit its best reading of 2026, and new data shows the labor market is slowly thawing for small employers. But NFIB data also shows labor cost concerns at an all-time high — and nearly a million new grads are actively looking at small businesses first. Alex breaks down what the data means for your hiring and retention decisions this week.