Macrocast by FTP & Markets Policy Partners

This week on Macrocast , the team breaks down Chair Warsh's first moves at the helm of a divided FOMC and what the June meeting minutes reveal about the growing rift between hawks and doves. Market odds on a rate hike remain low for now but are expected to climb in the months ahead. The episode digs into what's driving that shift. The team covers mixed economic signals, with strong ISM s...

This week on the Macrocast, the team analyzes the latest jobs report numbers, including labor market pressures and a surprising contraction in the leisure and hospitality sector. The discussion then turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut at a central bank conference in Portugal, where his focus on inflation and a lack of forward guidance left markets weighing potential rate hikes ahead of the...

Financial markets had a turbulent week, and the Macrocast team is sorting through the noise. Chip prices are climbing, semiconductor valuations look stretched, and investors are pulling back on AI-adjacent bets. Brendan explains what's driving the selloff and whether it's a correction or something more serious. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is keeping rates elevated while inflation stays sticky,...

In this episode, Macrocast regular John Dick of CivicScience joins the team to unpack the latest consumer sentiment numbers. The Economic Sentiment Index just hit its highest point since mid-April, retail sales came in nearly double expectations, and yet housing starts dropped to a six-year low. So what's actually going on with the American consumer? They also get into how much sports and cul...

In this episode of the Macrocast, John, Brendan and Ed kick off with a discussion of this week's U.S. inflation data. The analyze both the CPI and PPI, noting that despite the elevated numbers, especially for producers, markets took the data in stride. Next, they discussed the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the first with Kevin Warsh as Chair. They cover his views on the corr...

In this episode of the Macrocast , John, Brendan, and Ed break down a surprisingly strong jobs report and what it is doing to expectations for markets and the Fed. They look at the mixed reaction across stocks and bonds, the shift in market leadership, and what it all signals for the path ahead. The conversation also steps back to cover upcoming tech IPOs, rising geopolitical tensions, and key pol...

This week on the Macrocast , the team broke down the market’s reaction to potential Iran deal developments, exploring how lower oil prices and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease inflation pressures and influence Treasury yields. They also discussed the challenges facing incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as the Fed continues to navigate sticky inflation and a still-hawkish policy...

The Macrocast this week turns to healthcare and biotech with special guest Barrett Thornhill of FTP joining John Fagan, Ed Hill, and Brendan Walsh.  China’s biotech boom is front and center, with more than half of global clinical trials now coming out of China. A faster, lower-cost regulatory system is driving that shift and forcing a rethink of how drug development competes globally. Barrett unpa...

This week on the Macrocast, the team is joined by John Dick of CivicScience to discuss a surprising rebound in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), driven in part by improving outlook on the U.S. economy and the impact of tax refund season. The conversation also covers growing concerns around AI and the labor market, shifting housing trends as more Americans consider moving due to cost-of-livin...

This week on the Macrocast , the team breaks down a stronger than expected April jobs report showing 115,000 new jobs and what it suggests about continued labor market strength and market expectations around growth and policy. The discussion then turns to rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. and the resulting pressure on oil prices, inflation dynamics, and energy sensitive sector...

This week on Macrocast , the team examines Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remain beyond his tenure as chair and what it means for Fed independence as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over. The discussion also touches on the labor market and whether there is a case for interest rate cuts, weighing factors like inflation, the impact of AI on employment, and broader economic signals. The episode closes w...

This week on the  Macrocast , the team digs into the latest economic data and what it is signaling for the broader outlook, though as they joke, it is starting to feel a bit like Groundhog Day. Geopolitical tensions with Iran continue to loom, keeping energy markets unsettled and making it harder for broader risk sentiment to find direction. Inflation remains in focus as well, with energy price pr...

This week on the  Macrocast , the whole team, with special guest John Dick returning, breaks down the latest inflation data and what it signals for the U.S. economy. They go through CPI, recent inflation trends, and moves in gas prices as markets reassess the path for prices and policy. The discussion also turns to artificial intelligence and its accelerating impact on growth, productivity, and ma...

This week on the Macrocast , John Fagan and Brendan Walsh discuss a busy stretch of economic data coming out this week, along with key developments in markets and geopolitics. Geopolitical risk tied to Iran continues to drive volatility, with particular attention on the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global energy markets and inflation expectations.  For more about the hosts, please see...

This week on the Macrocast , John Fagan is joined by special guest Trevor Hanger to examine the outlook for the U.S. economy as markets balance resilient data with rising risks. They cover shifting expectations for monetary policy, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling a more cautious, wait-and-see approach. Risk tied to Iran remains central, driving volatility in energy markets and complicating...

This week on the Macrocast , the team examines rising oil prices and their impact on gas markets, along with heightened market volatility amid global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to influence investor sentiment, while recent chaos on the Hill, including airport shutdowns and the DHS funding deal, has made headlines. Housing data shows prices remaining elevated, and the discu...

This week on the Macrocast , special guests Trevor Hanger and John Dick join the team to break down key developments across the economy, politics, and markets. John Dick shares new survey data and insights on consumer sentiment and rising gasoline prices. The team also discusses the conflict in Iran and resulting market volatility, as well as Chair Jerome Powell and the possibility he may remain i...

This week on the Macrocast , the team covers the Senate’s bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act and its potential effects on housing markets. They break down the ongoing DHS funding impasse, discuss the planned Kevin Warsh hearing in the Senate Banking Committee, and assess the broader market implications of Iran tensions and rising gas prices. The episode closes with a look ahead to next week’s central...

This week on the Macrocas t, Trevor Hanger of Forbes Tate Partners joins the team to discuss the conflict with Iran, assessing energy market volatility and its domestic ripple effects. Shifting focus to the 2026 election cycle, the group analyzes the variables shaping the midterm election as the primary season heats up, including the impact of tariffs. The episode concludes with a look at the DHS...

This week on the Macrocast , the team is joined by John Dick of CivicScience to discuss AI adoption, consumer behavior, and the growing anxiety around AI tools. This episode also dives into economic data, including the latest PPI report, which came in much higher than expected and could eventually feed through to consumer prices, along with broader implications for markets and policy.  Plus, a loo...

This week on the Macrocast , the team unpacks the latest inflation and employment data, examining what stubborn price pressures and the labor market mean for the Fed and the economy. They dive into the ongoing small government shutdown, equity market trends, and why chatter about a potential U.S. military engagement in Iran hasn’t moved markets. Tune in for a clear, concise breakdown of the number...

This week on Macrocast , the team covers stronger-than-expected January jobs and inflation data, along with shifting consumer sentiment. They also explore the Fed outlook, the upcoming Senate confirmation process for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, and the ongoing Fed investigation. In addition, they dig into the Japanese economy, the latest crypto selloff and regulatory updates, and the risk of a...

This week on The Macrocast, the team is joined by Trevor Hanger of Forbes Tate Partners, to discuss the surge in AI investment, what it means for markets, and where the broader economy may be headed as technology, policy, and market momentum continue to collide.  This episode dives into broader economic outlook, including market expectations under the Trump administration, speculation around futur...

This week on The Macrocast , the episode dives into growing speculation over future Federal Reserve leadership, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely successor. It explores how a more dovish versus more hawkish chair could shape markets, borrowing costs, and the broader economic outlook in the years ahead. The episode also covers Trump-era tariffs and the Supreme Court’s dela...

This week on Macrocast , the team welcomes frequent guest contributor John Dick of CivicScience to unpack consumer sentiment takeaways from 2025 and what they signal for 2026. The discussion also covers the crypto market and how large banks are beginning to adopt digital assets through new services. The episode ends with developments around Greenland and their market implications, along with the l...