Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

In this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve's 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia...

In this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of  Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession . His research focuses on monetary policy, and...

In this episode, I talk with Shahraab Ahmad. Shahraab was previously the Chief Investment Officer of the credit fund Decca Capital. Prior to launching the fund in 2015, he managed the Hutchin Hill Liquid Credit Strategy (2008-2013). From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Sailfish Capital, where he traded global relative value within credit, and prior to that, he was Co-Head of the HY Credit Tradin...

In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He's currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale's School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on "The Next China" and "The Lessons of Japan....

In this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative f...

In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of C...

In this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discus...

In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies.  He has an extensive research background having...

In this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before C...

This episode is sponsored by SGX – the largest Asian FX exchange. In this episode, I talk with Raghuram Rajan. He is currently Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. Before that, he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the IMF. He's the author of several boo...

In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world's leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss: Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades The r...

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of "Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today" and is the coauthor of...

In this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He's written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay "Radical Uncertainty: Decisi...

In this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She's an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She's also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why a V-shaped recovery is likely 2. The panic pandemic 3. How productivity could jump after COVID 4. What could see inflation rise...

In this episode, I talk with Professor Alex Edmans from the London Business School. He's one of the world's leading academics on company purpose, social value and profits. In fact, he's just come out with a book on the subject called "Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit". We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Is a company's sole purpose to deliver profits? 2. H...

In this episode, I talk with Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg. He is the Head of Asset Allocation at one the world's largest asset managers, Legal and General. His fund is one of the fastest growing multi-asset funds and has been a top quartile performer over the last five years. In his own word, Emiel replaced rowing with French Fries, but has continued to instill the teamwork from his rowing team into...

In this episode, I talk with Alfonso Prat-Gay. He was Governor of the central bank of Argentina from 2002 to 2004 and later Argentina's Finance Minister between 2015-2016. I had the pleasure of working under Alfonso during my J.P Morgan days in the late 1990s, and I hold him up to be one of my most influential mentors. We also have a scoop about Alfonso and the Bank of England. On the podcast, we...

In this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She's a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis 2. Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation 3. Not putting too much w...

In this episode, I talk politics and markets with Bobby Vedral. He's a top macro and political analyst who runs Macro Eagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council, which focuses on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs, where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The structural conse...

In this episode, I have a wide-ranging conversation with the FT's Chief Economics Commentator, Martin Wolf. He brings a depth to any topic that is often lacking anywhere else. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The parallels of the COVID crisis with past crises such as the ones seen in the 1970s 2. The uniqueness of this crisis 3. How well policymakers have done so far 4. The role of international org...

In this episode, I have a conversation with the super-smart and provocative thinker and investor, Alex Gurevich. In our wide-ranging chat, we discuss recent lessons learned, views on markets and risks to look out for. Specifically: 1. How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style. 2. How every crisis delivers something you've never seen before 3. Why crisis moments are when you...

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the top macro investors that I've come across, Jim Leitner. He has an impressive track-record, but more importantly, is very thoughtful and can go from talking about the nuts and bolts of options trading to how political regimes change. In the podcast, we talk about: How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style Whether options...

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of my favourite global economists, Phil Suttle. He's got the credentials having worked at J.P. Morgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor, but it's his analysis that stands out. In the podcast, we talk about: (1) How to forecast growth when economies lock-down. (2) Whether the policy responses so far will make a difference and how Asia is behavi...

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the leading experts on gold, John Butler. He has spent 25 years in the financial industry, worked at some of the top banks and has even written a book on gold (The Golden Revolution). In the podcast, we talk about: Valuation frameworks for gold The relationship between oil and real interest rates with gold The insurance properties of gold How gold...

In this episode, we're lucky to have a conversation with one of the most original macro thinkers, the Macro Dilettante . He prefers not to disclose his name, but I've known him for years and is a super experienced market pro having worked at asset managers, in alternative investments and at pension funds. Back in January, he warned me about the global consequences of COVID and I mistakenly didn't...