Know Your Risk Podcast

September 24, 2026 — Stocks finished roughly flat even as Treasury yields surged, oil climbed and the dollar strengthened. Zach Abraham breaks down one of the strangest market sessions he's seen lately — and explains why he puts more weight on the bond market when stocks and bonds start telling completely different stories. Zach examines why equity markets appeared willing to look through worsenin...

September 23, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, but some of the biggest market reactions may only now be showing up. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.1% today to its highest level since 2007 as stocks moved lower. Zach Abraham explains why he believes markets have become slower and stranger at digesting major Fed decisions — often producing an initial reaction, settling d...

September 22, 2026 — Big Tech built some of the most profitable businesses in history on network effects, enormous margins and powerful competitive moats. Zach Abraham argues the AI arms race may be changing that economic model. As Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others pour extraordinary amounts of capital into AI, they're increasingly competing directly with one another for the same customer...

September 21, 2026 — The Nasdaq closed at a record high today, helped by a huge rally in Meta. But underneath the headline index, something much less bullish was happening: more Nasdaq stocks were hitting 52-week lows than 52-week highs. Meta finished up roughly 11%, while the Nasdaq gained about 2.3% to a record close. Zach Abraham breaks down what that divergence says about market breadth, conce...

September 18, 2026 — A normal middle-class life has become dramatically more expensive. Zach Abraham looks beyond the latest inflation print and asks a bigger question: what happened to the relationship between wages and the cost of housing, education, everyday life, and asset ownership? Zach argues that the affordability problem is much deeper than one bad year of inflation. He connects stagnant...

September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates, why crude may be looking through the headlines toward some kind of resolution, and why the downside coul...

September 16, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates again today. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue the bigger story may be the borrowing costs businesses still haven’t had to refinance into yet. They examine the coming refinancing cycle, why loans written in the cheap-money era may reset at dramatically higher rates, and where that pressure could begin showing up in construction, housing,...

September 15, 2026 — The 10-year Treasury is back around 5%, borrowing costs are at levels not seen in nearly two decades, and Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are asking the question that usually follows: what breaks first? They examine where higher rates are already creating stress — from housing and commercial real estate to indebted small caps and AI infrastructure companies — and why a higher co...

September 14, 2026 - Memory and chip stocks got hit hard today (DRAM down 7%, semiconductors down nearly 5%) after frontier AI labs signaled they may be slowing development — even as the hyperscalers actually funding that buildout (Google, Meta, Microsoft) traded up 2-3% the same day. Chase breaks down why that split makes sense, and why he thinks the slowdown talk isn't just competitive posturing...

September 11, 2026 - Oil dropped 1.7% today even after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline (3.5 million barrels a day of exports) and confirmation that Saudi production just hit a 36-year low — supply news that should have sent prices higher. Zach and Chase break down why: Gulf states are sitting down directly with Iran in Oman on Monday, going around Washington, after it was reported t...

September 10, 2026 - Oil ripped nearly 7% today, WTI pressing $103 and Brent hitting $108, on news that Saudi output has fallen to a 36-year low and Houthi forces have seized a coastal city and multiple Red Sea islands near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — putting them in position to threaten shipping through it more easily than at any point in this conflict. Zach and Chase break down why almost nobody...

September 9, 2026 - The jobs numbers are solid, prices are up, and the labor market's strong — by every normal measure the Fed should be raising rates, not talking about cutting them. But Chase makes the case that the reason those numbers look strong at all comes down to one narrow input: AI capital expenditure. He estimates it at 3 to 3.5% of the entire US economy this year, against real GDP grow...

September 8, 2026 — Could gold eventually reach $10,000? Zach Abraham explains why he believes today's inflationary cycle may have much further to run — and why investors may be preparing for the wrong kind of risk. Zach and Chase Taylor discuss why the playbook built around deflationary crashes may no longer fit today's fiscal and monetary environment, how persistent inflation changes the role of...

September 4, 2026 — Could Nvidia really become a $10 trillion company? Maybe. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue that's not the only question investors should be asking. They break down the risk-reward behind today's biggest AI trade, why an extraordinary company can still become difficult to justify at an extraordinary valuation, and where they see more attractive opportunities outside the m...

September 3, 2026 — The S&P 500 has long been treated as a simple way to broadly own the U.S. market. But is that still what investors are actually buying? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how extreme concentration in technology, semiconductors and communications has changed the makeup of major U.S. indexes — and why relying on the S&P's historical performance may mean comparing today...

September 2, 2026 — The AI data-center buildout is accelerating, but what are local communities actually getting in return? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the economics behind the data-center boom, why enormous investments in power and infrastructure don't necessarily translate into enormous employment, and why state and local governments are increasingly asking harder questions about th...

September 1, 2026 — Could diesel prices be headed toward $6? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, why ship-to-ship oil transfers may have become much more difficult again, and why refined products could become an even bigger problem than crude oil itself. They also discuss rising Treasury yields, the pressure higher borrowing costs a...

August 31, 2026 — Chase Taylor explains why Iran’s apparent ability to threaten smaller ship-to-ship oil transfers could sharply reduce the volume moving through the Strait—from roughly 7 million barrels a day toward 2–3 million. Chase examines why that would be such a serious shock for an oil market already relying on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, declining floating inventories and a limi...

August 28, 2026 — Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message, why a traditional Taylor Rule framework could imply as many as eight rate hikes, and why the Fed may now be trapped between persistent inflation and the economic damage caused by tighter policy. They also examine the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, Canada’s potential incentive to wait out the U.S. m...

August 27, 2026 — Gold-mining stocks have rallied nearly 50% from their mid-July lows. Zach Abraham explains why some miners may still offer unusually compelling value—and why a rising stock price does not necessarily mean the underlying opportunity has disappeared. Zach walks through how replacement-cost economics can expose hidden value in mining companies, why strong assets and reserves can pro...

August 26, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why revolutionary technologies can still produce enormous investment bubbles—and why the unprecedented buildout surrounding artificial intelligence may eventually face the same problem. Chase explains why capital-spending booms throughout history tend to overshoot demand, while Zach examines Nvidia's increasingly complex web of investments an...

August 25, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's public criticism of recent Treasury policy—and why Chase believes the warning deserves far more attention than the controversy over how the op-ed was written. Chase examines Treasury's attempts to influence the bond market, the risk of escalating intervention when markets refuse to cooperate, and why using crisis...

August 24, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss what increasingly aggressive Treasury intervention in the bond market could mean for interest rates, inflation and the U.S. dollar. Chase explains why efforts to suppress long-term yields may work mechanically—but could create major consequences elsewhere through inflation, currency weakness and shorter-duration government financing. Zach and...

August 21, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why the Treasury's increasingly visible concern about long-term interest rates may be exposing a much deeper problem with U.S. debt, deficits and economic policy. They examine why attempts to suppress bond yields could ultimately lead to more monetary intervention, what rising oil and inflation pressures mean for policymakers, and why decades...

August 20, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses why weakening results from Walmart may be an important warning about the American consumer as inflation continues to erode real purchasing power. Chase also examines the rapid reversal of the Treasury's bond-market intervention, rising oil and agricultural prices, why he believes policymakers may eventually be forced toward a larger liquidity response, the...