Know Your Risk Podcast

October 22, 2026 - The AI buildout can keep going while shareholders pay a growing price. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine Meta’s financing plans and the risk that issuing more stock to fund enormous spending commitments dilutes the investors already holding shares . The tension runs through a confusing market session: AI stocks and gold miners fall, Apple rallies, oil climbs and bond yields...

October 21, 2026 - A Tesla–SpaceX combination could give investors a bigger growth story. But who would actually be funding it? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor unpack the merger talk and question whether Tesla shareholders would be financing SpaceX’s capital demands while still paying a growth-stock valuation. They separate admiration for Elon Musk’s achievements from the price they’re willing to pa...

October 20, 2026 - The next catalyst for AI stocks might come from the oil market. Chase Taylor explains why an end to the Iran war—and the relief it could bring to energy prices, inflation and borrowing costs—could change the outlook for companies financing the AI buildout. Flying solo, Chase lays out why AI exposure could serve as a hedge for an energy-heavy portfolio, even after he questioned t...

October 19, 2026 - Believing AI will change the world is one thing. Knowing which stocks will reward investors is another. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor explain why they can be enthusiastic about the technology while questioning whether today’s AI infrastructure winners belong in a buy-and-hold portfolio. CoreWeave brings that tension into focus: strong demand for computing power can coexist with...

October 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase unpack a market that seemed to ignore mounting risks—until volatility finally jumped. Zach makes a candid confession: they cut their VIX exposure in half the day before the surge. They discuss oil pushing toward $100, rates and options positioning, then look ahead to Big Tech earnings and the question hanging over the AI buildout: can the returns justify the enorm...

October 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the tension inside the AI boom: demand for compute is rising, but token prices are falling as the industry keeps investing in more capacity. They examine what that could mean for hyperscalers, leveraged neoclouds, and the economics of the buildout. They also discuss the bond market’s response to hot inflation data and the risks of shorter-term Treasury bor...

October 14, 2026 — AI-token prices are falling even as volume grows. Is that evidence the technology is getting cheaper to use—or a warning for businesses carrying huge infrastructure costs? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor weigh the pressure on AI economics against the possibility that, if demand and forecasts hold, the AI trade is still underpriced. They also discuss the hot CPI print, the bond mar...

October 14, 2026 — President Trump says inflation can pay down the national debt. Rudy Havenstein calls inflation “a super regressive default,” arguing that it shifts the cost onto ordinary households while the wealthy are better positioned to benefit. Zach Abraham and Rudy discuss what official inflation measures miss, the Fed’s role in supporting asset prices, rising wealth inequality, and why R...

October 13, 2026 — The biggest technology stocks continue to dominate the market, while small caps, rate-sensitive businesses and parts of the real economy are telling a very different story. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down an increasingly divided market: the Magnificent Seven reaching another record while small caps lag, crowded positioning between the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, and why Ch...

October 12, 2026 — Apple is now worth roughly $4.5 trillion and trading around 44 times earnings. Zach Abraham says he’s struggling to make the fundamental math work. Zach and Chase Taylor break down the disconnect between Apple’s enormous valuation, its recent revenue growth, buybacks and capital spending — and debate why investors continue treating the company almost like a safe-haven asset desp...

October 9, 2026 — Gold, miners and other real-asset trades are beginning to behave differently, even on days when the U.S. dollar is holding up. Zach Abraham says the pattern is starting to resemble a return of the “debasement trade.” Zach and Chase Taylor explain what that actually means: assets that can benefit when investors become increasingly concerned about inflation, government spending and...

October 8, 2026 — Artificial-intelligence spending has become so enormous that Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor believe it increasingly belongs in the macroeconomic conversation — not just the technology conversation. Back together in the studio, Zach and Chase examine how massive AI capital spending may be contributing to economic growth and inflation, and why any meaningful slowdown in that spendin...

October 7, 2026 — Inflation can reduce the real burden of government debt. But that doesn't make the debt disappear — it changes who bears the cost. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are finally back together, and they begin by unpacking the idea that inflation can effectively help governments manage enormous debt loads by reducing the future purchasing power of the currency used to repay them. That d...

October 6, 2026 — WTI crude is back below $90, but farther-out oil contracts are still pushing higher. Chase Taylor explains why the futures curve may be telling a different story from the headline price — and what persistent supply and geopolitical risk could mean for the market further down the road. Chase breaks down why May and December 2027 oil pricing remains firm even as front-month crude h...

October 5, 2026 — Treasury yields have surged above 5%, yet major stock indexes are still trading near record highs. Chase Taylor explains why those two things may not be as contradictory as they first appear. Chase reframes the rate story by looking at what has happened to nominal economic growth and corporate earnings at the same time. His argument: higher rates are already hurting rate-sensitiv...

September 30, 2026 — Stocks spent much of the day higher before selling off sharply into the close. Zach Abraham explains why he pays particular attention to the final stretch of trading — when institutional activity becomes more dominant — and why today’s reversal stood out against a backdrop of rapidly rising interest rates. Zach breaks down why the speed of the move in Treasury yields matters,...

September 29, 2026 — Interest rates have moved sharply higher, but the stock market still appears remarkably calm. Zach Abraham argues that underneath the headline indexes, the damage from higher borrowing costs is already showing up. Zach breaks down why higher rates matter far beyond the bond market — from housing and commercial real estate to refinancing costs, private equity, private credit an...

September 28, 2026 — Big Tech is pouring extraordinary amounts of capital into artificial intelligence. But does spending the most money mean capturing the most value? Zach Abraham looks at the AI boom through a different lens after a conversation with the founder of a fast-growing AI startup. Zach argues that smaller, more focused companies may have advantages the hyperscalers don't: greater agil...

September 24, 2026 — Stocks finished roughly flat even as Treasury yields surged, oil climbed and the dollar strengthened. Zach Abraham breaks down one of the strangest market sessions he's seen lately — and explains why he puts more weight on the bond market when stocks and bonds start telling completely different stories. Zach examines why equity markets appeared willing to look through worsenin...

September 23, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, but some of the biggest market reactions may only now be showing up. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.1% today to its highest level since 2007 as stocks moved lower. Zach Abraham explains why he believes markets have become slower and stranger at digesting major Fed decisions — often producing an initial reaction, settling d...

September 22, 2026 — Big Tech built some of the most profitable businesses in history on network effects, enormous margins and powerful competitive moats. Zach Abraham argues the AI arms race may be changing that economic model. As Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others pour extraordinary amounts of capital into AI, they're increasingly competing directly with one another for the same customer...

September 21, 2026 — The Nasdaq closed at a record high today, helped by a huge rally in Meta. But underneath the headline index, something much less bullish was happening: more Nasdaq stocks were hitting 52-week lows than 52-week highs. Meta finished up roughly 11%, while the Nasdaq gained about 2.3% to a record close. Zach Abraham breaks down what that divergence says about market breadth, conce...

September 18, 2026 — A normal middle-class life has become dramatically more expensive. Zach Abraham looks beyond the latest inflation print and asks a bigger question: what happened to the relationship between wages and the cost of housing, education, everyday life, and asset ownership? Zach argues that the affordability problem is much deeper than one bad year of inflation. He connects stagnant...

September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates, why crude may be looking through the headlines toward some kind of resolution, and why the downside coul...

September 16, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates again today. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue the bigger story may be the borrowing costs businesses still haven’t had to refinance into yet. They examine the coming refinancing cycle, why loans written in the cheap-money era may reset at dramatically higher rates, and where that pressure could begin showing up in construction, housing,...