JSEDirect with Simon Brown

Simon Shares Day 28 of lockdown. Oil, negative pricing? I thought I'd seen it all when interest rates went negative, but no ~ oil says "hold my beer". I Tweeted about it. Short version, don't now suddenly decide you are an oil trader. Overnight WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate) traded at a negative $40. Yip -$40, traders were paying you to take their oil off their hands. Totally wild and now every...

Lockdown day 25 22million unemployment claims in US in 4 weeks (entire 2008 saw only 8.8million) opening economy China GDP fell by 6.8% YoY in Q1 (first fall since 1992) Wall Street gained 15% in the past two weeks, its strongest fortnight in 80 years. Oil price .. crude oil getting smashed as global storage fills up Earnigs season kicks off in US this week, includes March so some sense of impact...

Lockdowns being extend everywhere (Spain +15 days, Italy +2 weeks, US wait and see, but likely end April) ZAR blowing out US jobless claims 6.6m this week Unemployment at 4.4%, non-farm payroll down 701k jobs (first down in a decade), -100k expected Numbers don't add up, latter is only to mid March Lots of lagging data, two issues here, one is data coming out at record worst, and even just a 1 mon...

Simon Shares New weekly podcast in the RSS feed every Monday late morning. BUT only in the RSS feed, not on the website. So subscribe to the feed, it is here . Upcoming events; 09 April ~  JSE Power Hour: Trader's game plan Lockdown, day six as I record (seven as you listen). COVID-19 numbers globally continue to rise, but I'm watching Italy. They're now at three weeks of lockdown and are seeing d...

Moodys junk (negative outlook) SARB bond buying Moboweni, world bank & IMF Motsepe R1bn US worst US jobless claims - EVER US $2.2trillion bail out Edcon CEO, they can't pay suppliers TFG wants delay on rent Dividends being delayed

Upcoming events; 09 April ~  JSE Power Hour: Trader's game plan New weekly podcast in the RSS feed every Monday late morning. BUT only in the RSS feed, not on the website. So subscribe to the feed, it is here . Subscribe to our feed here Sign up for email alerts  as a new show goes live Lockdown T-1 day Will lockdown hurt the economy? Yes it absolutely will. Exactly how much we have no idea, but o...

Simon Shares Sasol (JSE code: SOL) is now talking a rights issue of some US$2billion, more than the current market cap. They hope to be able to avoid this by selling assets, finding a partner for Lake Charles and cutting costs. But the first two will be near impossible in the current climate, so expect the rights issue with a +50% dilution. In other words, a horror rights issue. Price will be weak...

Simon Shares The Sasol (JSE code: SOL) share price has collapsed this week for three key reasons. Saudi Arabia has declared oil price war on Russia and sent Brent down to the low $30's as they try and get Russia to agree to production cuts. Sasol has not hedge the oil price. They usually hedge about a third pf production, but currently they only have ethane and ZAR hedges in place. Massive debt bu...

Simon Shares Recession, surely nobody surprised? Growth lower for longer. The budget is certainly designed to help, but the R160billion cut from pubic sector wage bill is not going to be easy. Likely we'll also now get at least 2 rate cuts this year, each 0.25% minimum. Last week of February was the worst week for global markets since 2008. It was violent and it's not going away. COVID-19 marches...

I chaired a panel discussion on the 2020 budget by Minister Mboweni and have included the audio from that panel. The biggie, which is not mentioned is that the annual tax-free allocation has been increased to R36k a year effective 2 March 2020. On the panel with me was; Elizabeth Fick ~ Tax and Fiduciary at Investec Jacques Conradie ~ Managing Director at Peregrine Capital Theunis (TJ) Strydom ~ F...

Simon Shares I bought Sibanye Stillwater* (new JSE code: SSW) last week, average price 3950c. You want to own single commodity miners when price has already boomed and underlying commodities are flying. We have both here and if prices hold they'll print money for the rest of this financial year ending June. I'll add on the fifteen day EMA and hold for as long as it runs. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL)...

Simon Shares Ecsponent (JSE code: ECS) have announced they will default on their March preference share dividends. This is a mess and preference shareholders are in a real bind. If you hold any, contact your lawyer. AngloGold Ashanti (JSE code: ANG) confirms the sale of their Mponeng to Harmony (JSE code: HAR) for US$300million meaning it'll no longer operate in SA from June. Coronavirus (COVID-19...

Simon Shares Tesla (Nasdaq code: TSLA), epic short squeeze. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH), epic short squeeze. Coronavirus continues to spread, fast, with almost 25,000 confirmed cases. People are recovering and we now have two deaths outside China. Tongaat (JSE code: TON) results are out and the suspension has been lifted. The results were a horror show with debt of some R13billion and negative equit...

Simon Shares Correction, last week I said Naspers got some R100billion from selling Prosus shares. It was more like R22billion. Apple (NYSE code: AAPL) results knocked it out the park, again. Profits up 11% to US$22.2billion, EPS up 19% to US$4.99 and revenues up 9% to US$91.8billion (US$1billion revenue for each trading day in the quarter.). All above expectations and even iPhone sales grew 8%. C...

Simon Shares Deutsche Bank has redeemed three of their ETNs. DBCHIN, DBEMER & DBAFRI. As ETNs they would have expired anyway, but that was due to happen next June. Holders of these ETNs last week will receive cash at net asset value (NAV) for the ETNs and it lso means Deutsche Bank is no longer active in the listed passive space on the JSE. Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) trading update was strong, but...

2020 predictions show Every year Marc Ashton , Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and wooly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous years predictions and you'll find the 2019 predictions show here . Subscriber to our feed  here Subscribe or review us in  iTune...

FTSE 100 structured product In the last show for 2019 Simon chats to Viv Govender and Gary Booysen from Rand Swiss on their latest structured product. This time it is an auto call over the FTSE100 in US$. We also chat a bit about Brexit and what it actually means; good, bad or ugly. Subscriber to our feed  here Subscribe or review us in  iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Li...

Len Jordaan, Index and Structured Solutions, Absa CIB Simon and Len delve into understanding risk and how it applies to your Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) selection, both as a basket of different ETFs you put together but also as to which individual ETF you may be buying for a tax-free or discretionary portfolio. Some links we refer to; Managed volatility JSE Direct interview . Managed volatility ETF...

Upcoming events; 05 December ~ Position your portfolio for 2020 Subscriber to our feed  here Subscribe or review us in  iTunes Simon Shares Third quarter GDP came in at -0.6% making the fourth negative GDP in the last seven quarters (since Jan 2018). Our economy is dying. Important the economy is not the market, but it is still dying. Sygnia will not be charging you 0.34% to exit their Itrix ETFs....

Simon Shares Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) update is same old same old. Local food doing great, fashion okay and Australia still under pressure with the refurbishments due to end March 2020. Brait (JSE code: BAT) announces a large recapitalisation with a cR5.5billion rights issue at a 27% discount to the share price and about 60% new shares. This is also a massive discount to net asset value (NAV) whic...

Upcoming events; 21 November ~ Creating a portfolio at the market highs 05 December ~ Position your portfolio for 2020 Ironman your trading This is an hour long recording of a live event I presented in Cape Town on Tuesday. The PDF is here . JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been aut...

Simon Shares SAA retrenchments, a test for the bigger Eskom process? Telkom (JSE code; TKG) to buy CellC? R1 would seem a fair price and would benefit both Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) and Telkom. Rumours that MTN (JSE code: MTN) is also in the running to buy CellC, but I can't see the competition commission allowing that. Of note is that Blue Label have not issued a SENS (Telkom has, but not naming...

Simon Shares October was a decent month for the Top40, adding almost 3% and now 9.5% year-to-date excluding dividends. Moodys makes us negative but not junk and the ZAR soars. Finance minister, Tito Mboweni, says government 'not considering' the idea of prescribed assets. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-11-05-treasury-not-considering-prescribed-assets-mboweni-says/ The Shoprite* (J...

Yield focused ETF from CoreShares CoreShares has merged their PTXSPY EF into PTXTEN and now converted it into a new CSPROP. CSPROP is a new property ETF that has yield as 75% of the weighting adding both diversity and yield to the ETF. Simon chats to Chris Rule about the new ETF, why the changes and the details. Find more here . Subscriber to our feed  here Subscribe or review us in  iTunes Up com...