JSEDirect with Simon Brown

Simon Shares Day 119 of lockdown and Covid-19, cases may be moderating? Monday is 4 months of lockdown. Quantum Foods (JSE code: QFH) is coming back to earth after 1157c last Friday. Tech stocks in the US are flying. Expensive? yes, but. They have solid earnings, a moat and lots of new products they can roll out. Very solid Datatec (JSE code: DTC) update. From @keithmclachlan on Datatec valuations...

Offshore / US jobless claims remain at around 1.3million / Netflix drops 9% on weak Q3 guidance. / Jamie Dimon's warning for the U.S. economy — nobody knows what comes next / Amazon stock had its worst week since February / Fiscal Cliffs Threaten Fragile U.S. Recovery as stimulus expires late July / Qantas has removed all of its international flights until March of 2021 Local / Tsogo Sun Hotels se...

Simon Shares Day 112 of lockdown and Covid-19 cases are still spiking in South Africa and no drink again. Load shedding. An economy on its knees now without power. Quantum Foods (JSE code: QFH) still booming as Astral (JSE code: ARL) buys a 6.42% stake to protect their broiler supply. Bell Equipment (JSE code: BEL) trading update says HEPS to least 80% lower. CPI for May 2.1%, (3.0% in April and 4...

Offshore / Germany saves. Total retail deposits rose by €22.4bn in Apr and hit fresh All-time high at €2.46tn. The volume of retail bank deposits has doubled within 18 years. / German production and export data disappoints as they have nobody to sell to in a lockdown world. / Warren Buffett's Berkshire buys Dominion Energy natural gas assets in $10 billion deal / Uber buying Postmates / Tesla stil...

"This week's episode of JSE Direct is courtesy of IG.com , our preferred supplier in trading products." Simon Shares Day 105 of lockdown and Covid-19 cases are still spiking in South Africa. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results. Suddenly everybody wants to own cyclical Quantum Foods (JSE code: QFH). Standard Bank ETNs are expiring next month. Gold stocks are flying and everybody is asking me if they've m...

Offshore / US unemployment 11.1% / Tesla now largest motor company in the world / Advertisers bailing on facebook / Goldman Lowers U.S. GDP Forecast, Sees 4.6% Contraction in 2020 (was 4.2%) / Fitch has downgraded a record number of sovereign ratings due to the coronavirus. 33 downgrades, 40 negative watch / Brexit talks started up again Local / Q1 GDP at -2% / Barloworld results / Capitec update...

Simon Shares "This week's episode of JSE Direct is courtesy of OUTvest, our preferred supplier in retirement products." Day 98 of lockdown and Covid-19 cases are spiking in South Africa. Local GDP for the first quarter came in at -2%, helped by agriculture +27.8% For the first time since July 2019, PMI respondents expect conditions to improve in six months' time. The index tracking expected busine...

Offshore / US existing home sales fell 9.7% the lowest level since October 2010. US jobless claims dropped to 1.48m / Wirecard into bankruptcy. EY never checked the bank account of the missing cash for 3 years. / HS Markit's Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose to 47.5 in June, / Microsoft permanently shutting retail stores / Nike reports unexpected loss as sales tumble 38% / Boeing 737 MAX ce...

Simon Shares Tencent hit a new all-time high on Tuesday and again on Wednesday pushing Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) higher and helping the JSE overall. Gold seems to be breaking up out of the consolidation zone it has spent the last few months trading in. Good German PMI data, still under 50, but only just again suggests that April was likely the worst month. Albeit the route...

/ Wirecard and the missing $2.1bn / Hertz decides NOT to issue shares while under chapter 11 / Reports on Sunday that British Finance Minister Sunak plans emergency cut in value-added tax / Index rebalancing in the Russell indices sees nearly half of the stocks being promoted to the Russell 1000 from the Russell 2000 will be healthcare names. / Apple will close 11 stores across Florida (2), North...

Simon Shares Here's a gem from the Herenya Capital Advisors Twitter account, albeit Remedica is up for sale and we've had lots of early hype on drugs that quickly fizzled out. Ascendis Healths subsidiary Remedica manufactures Dexamethasone which apparently helps combat severe cases and is being approved by the NHS. pic.twitter.com/XUw9VPHwdg — Herenya Capital Advisors (@HerenyaCapital) June 17, 20...

Offshore / China's PPI down 3.7% in May and factory output rises less than expected, retail sales continued to contract in May. / Fed kept interest rates flat and cautioned they expect conditions to remain tough into 2022. GDP 5% in 2021 and unemployment 5.5% in 2022 o S&P500 dropped -4.8% last week but remains +8.1% this month, o Nasdaq dropped -2.3% last week but remains +6.4% this month, o FTSE...

Simon Shares Bankruptcy stocks are the new excitement in the US. Hertz in chapter 11 saw its stock price back at the levels from when it announced Chapter 11. Tsogo Sun Gaming (JSE code: TSG) results to end-March show debt at R11.2billion, more than double the market cap. EOH (JSE code: EOH) update says debt is being paid off quicker than planned. But it remains a long road for the company. Britis...

Global / US May unemployment rate seriously strong at 13.3% / PMI bounces from April lows but still below 50 / China May exports slip back into contraction, imports worst in four years / Opec extend cuts by another month / AstraZeneca Approaches Gilead About Potential Merger local / Apple mobility and Yoco transaction data shows about 65% economic activity in week 1 of level 3 / JSE allows share i...

Upcoming events; 09 June ~ South China Seas structured product Q&A 10 June ~ Margin, gearing & exposure explained 17 June ~  Trading 101: A traders plan 18 June ~  What it means to Invest Globally, Locally Simon Shares Day 70 of lockdown, week 1 of level 3 and I got drink (still no smokes) but court locks down lockdown? Markets are surging, taken off flying and chasing the stars. Overall value is...

Global / US past 40million initial claims and Q1 GDP updated to -5.0% from -4.8% / Personal saving rate 33% in April / Germany's Business Climate Index rose to 79.5 in May as the country reopens / Reuters ~ China's May factory activity returns to growth but demand remains weak / China US tensions increasing / Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management announced it had sold off its entire sta...

Simon Shares Day 63 of lockdown, level 3 on Monday. As I record we're still waiting for details as to what is allowed under level 3, but it seems that rather than saying what we can do, the regulations will tell us what we can't do and that list will be short. We will be able to exercise, retail is open but restaurants and bars not. Alcohol will be sold, but not tobacco products. Personally I will...

Offshore / Hertz bankruptcy / US initial jobless claims now over 38million (160m labour force), UK ver 10million (35million labour force) / This on the back of German Q1 GDP released this morning coming in at -2.2% / Moderna vaccine excitement, and then they raise capital on share price spike / Commodities having another good week. / Apple mobility data shows Europeana and US economy opening. Loca...

Upcoming events; 21 May ~  Solvency and liquidity in the time of COVID-19 28 May ~ Managing risk as a trader with Garth McKenzie 03 June ~  Pandemic investment scenarios 10 June ~ Margin, gearing & exposure explained 18 June ~ What it means to Invest Globally, Locally Day 56 of lockdown Simon Shares Don't fight the Fed (The Federal Reserve). Markets are in full rally mode and the forward PE of the...

**Global** / UK two-year government bonds traded negative last week as UK GDP -2% for Q1, -5.8% for March & retail sales fall 19% year on year. Biggest in 25 years / Tencent's Q1:20 results showed a +19% jump in gaming subscriptions, overall Group revenue grew +26% and, on almost all metrics, the Group beat analyst estimates. / US, jobless claims came out as another nasty number today, now totally...

Simon Shares Day 49 of lockdown Pick 'n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results were slightly down, but no dividend as they conserve cash. Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) first quarter results knock it out of the park, strong cash flow and debt down 40%. Tongaat (JSE code: TON) sale of their starch business to Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) has collapsed with the buyer claiming "material adverse change" due t...

Global / Worst US unemployment since the depression, but lagging indicator. Likely 25% by end May / Last weeks PMI, local and global mostly setting records for worst ever / Nasdaq is up year-to-date / IMF warning that their 2020 GDP forecasts may be too low? Local / Comair business rescue / Phumelela Gaming business rescue / Our bonds are strong, 10 year at 9.3%, shorter dated below 8% / Anheuser-...

This week's episode of JSE Direct is courtesy of OUTvest, our preferred supplier in retirement products . Simon Shares April was the best month for equity markets since 1987! Local ten year bonds are on a tear, just a week after we exited the World Government Bond Index the yields are back at pre-junk levels and even better as they trade below 8%. This is the search for yield playing out. If their...

Simon Shares Moneyweb NOW , starting Monday. Live stream at 6.30am and podcast from 7am - both on Moneyweb.co.za or their app. Day 35 of lockdown, and last day of level 5, for now. S&P500 trading back at August 2019 levels and Top40 at January 2019 levels. So basically saying COVID-19 is no worry? Everything is going to be alright? Sure the US has thrown over US$2trillion at the problem, but some...

Simon Shares Day 28 of lockdown. Oil, negative pricing? I thought I'd seen it all when interest rates went negative, but no ~ oil says "hold my beer". I Tweeted about it. Short version, don't now suddenly decide you are an oil trader. Overnight WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate) traded at a negative $40. Yip -$40, traders were paying you to take their oil off their hands. Totally wild and now every...