ITR Economics

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the 2026 economic outlook after a challenging 2025. Growth is returning across GDP, industrial production, and business investment, but higher labor, electricity, and tariff-related costs threaten margins. Which sectors are positioned to improve, and what should leaders focus on now to stay profitable and prepare for...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down why inflation is becoming the Fed’s dominant concern as we enter 2026. She unpacks the latest Fed meeting minutes, growing dissent within the FOMC, and what a more hawkish voting lineup could mean for interest rate policy. Lauren also explores why the U.S. consumer remains resilient, how upcoming tax refunds could pr...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down why inflation is expected to accelerate into 2026 and what it means for business margins, pricing strategy, and profitability. Producer costs are rising, consumer inflation is picking up, and interest rate flexibility may be limited. What should leaders be watching now, and how can organizations prepare before cost pressures int...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain shares a long-term economic outlook that every business leader should be planning for now. With strong GDP and Industrial Production growth expected through 2029, the real risk is not the next few years but how prepared your business will be when the downturn arrives around 2030. Learn which markets are positioned to outperform, why waiting...

December 19, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest U.S. jobs report and what softer headline growth is really signaling beneath the surface. She also examines why inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target, what recent CPI data suggests about a turning point ahead, and how rising cost pressures could impact pricing strategies in...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down why electricity costs are rising and how data center expansion is reshaping the economic landscape heading into 2026. As inflation pressures build and power infrastructure strains intensify, electricity is emerging as a top input cost for many businesses. Where are the risks, and where are the opportunities for growt...

December 12, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker unpacks the Fed’s latest rate cut. Is the real story hiding between the lines? With committee views drifting apart and borrowing costs sticking higher than many expected, the outlook is anything but settled. Are the Fed’s inflation assumptions on track, or is the bond market seeing something they’re not? Tune i...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain assesses the health of the U.S. consumer and what the latest data means for companies preparing for 2026. Consumer spending continues to rise at a pace above inflation, delinquency rates remain below financial crisis levels, and a growing share of households are paying off full credit card balances.

December 5, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a pivotal moment for monetary policy as markets price in a likely rate cut ahead of next week’s meeting. With government data delayed by the shutdown, businesses are left navigating uncertainty and relying on less-predictive private-sector indicators. Lauren also highlights major Federal Reserve data...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Michael Feuz explains why 2026 is setting up to deliver more economic growth than 2025. He highlights the key “ingredients of growth” already in motion, from resilient consumer spending to rising B2B activity and expanding corporate cash levels. Michael also addresses a critical pain point for leaders: margin pressures that will intensify as growt...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest data on US Private Nonresidential Construction and explains why the current downturn is expected to remain mild. Taylor highlights what the most reliable leading indicators are telling us and outlines when businesses should begin preparing for the next growth cycle in 2026.

November 21, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the long-delayed September employment report and explains what the unexpected strength means for the labor market and the Fed’s December meeting. Discover where job losses are emerging, why certain sector gains matter for consumer momentum, and how unusual data collection conditions during the gover...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain shares an update on the US Single-Unit Housing market. While affordability remains a challenge, ITR Economics forecasts the housing market is approaching its low point in 2025, followed by growth in 2026 and 2027. Taylor breaks down where affordability is improving, which states are most affected, and why the data points to bett...

November 14, 2025 In this week’s episode of Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down how the end of the government shutdown restores critical economic data that the Federal Reserve needs before its December meeting. With mixed signals from policymakers and uncertainty around future rate cuts, how will this renewed data clarity shape monetary policy? Lauren also tackles...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain provides an update on the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. After record highs earlier this year, uncertainty has been cut in half, setting the stage for accelerating growth in both CAPEX and Industrial Production. Taylor explains why this shift supports ITR Economics’ positive outlook through 2026 and what it means for business leaders...

November 7, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker discusses the Fed’s latest policy shift, ending quantitative tightening, and what it means for future rate cuts. She also discusses the ongoing government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, and its uneven impact on consumers and GDP. Plus, Lauren examines the Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs a...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain revisits ITR Economics’ long-standing forecast of a 2030s depression and outlines how businesses can prepare today. Taylor reveals which U.S. states are best positioned for success and which face greater risk based on ten key economic and demographic factors. Learn where your organization may find opportunity as the next decade approaches.

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain from ITR Economics breaks down the current labor market conditions and what they mean for your business strategy. With just over one unemployed person per job opening, there’s slight slack in the market, but not for long. Find out why the next 6 to 9 months may be your best window for hiring before tightening conditions and wage pressures hit hard. Taylo...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain examines how soaring data center construction is fueling record-high electricity prices and what that means for your business. With U.S. electric power costs hitting new highs, companies face growing challenges tied to infrastructure strain and future energy policy changes.

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain breaks down where US exports and imports are growing, which countries are losing ground, and why the EU has emerged as the clear trade “winner” in 2025. Despite these changes, the US remains the top destination for foreign direct investment, a key driver for onshoring, reshoring, and long-term industrial growth. What will this mean for manufacturers and...

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain from ITR Economics unpacks the latest leading indicators for the US Industrial Economy. While growth is still on the horizon for 2026, several key indicators are moving sideways, signaling a milder rise than previous recovery cycles. What does this mean for capacity planning and business strategy? Tune in to learn why understanding not just the direction...

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain reviews the latest data showing manufacturing’s growth rate accelerating after a tough 2024. While some sectors like heavy-duty trucks, medical equipment, and light vehicle production remain under pressure, the outlook points to recovery in 2025 and broad-based growth by 2026. Will your business be ready to keep up with the pace of expansion?

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain from ITR Economics explains the concept of “profitless prosperity”, a future where businesses see revenue growth but shrinking profit margins due to rising costs. While economic growth is expected through 2028, inflation and cost pressures may limit profitability. How can your business avoid this trap? Taylor outlines strategies for balancing pricing pow...

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain break down how different income brackets are handling rising costs in food, housing, and healthcare. While higher earners continue to see spending remain below historical averages, lower and middle-income households are facing mounting affordability challenges. What does this divide mean for consumer spending and long-term economic growth?

This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain shares the latest housing market update. Single-family housing starts are in a slowdown now, but forecasts point to growth in 2026 and 2027. We review current mortgage rates, home prices, and how incomes are expected to outpace inflation. What do the latest trends mean for homebuyers, builders, and the real estate market outlook? Tune in to learn more!