ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what the June jobs report is really telling us about the U.S. economy and why the headlines may not reflect the full story. She also examines the Supreme Court's decision in the Lisa Cook case, what it means for Federal Reserve independence, and why the outcome could shape future monetary policy. If you're trying to...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain sits down with Managing Director Grace Schatz to discuss new research ranking which US states are best positioned for long-term economic success. Whether you're considering expansion, deciding where to invest, or planning your sales strategy, understanding regional economic resilience could become a competitive advantage. Which...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains what a K-shaped economy really means and why some industries are accelerating while others continue to struggle. Learn which sectors are on the "upper end of the K," which markets are lagging behind, and why understanding these trends can help businesses make smarter strategic decisions. 📊 Trends Report Free Preview →...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what looked like a strong GDP report and explains why the headline doesn't tell the whole story. Consumer spending weakened, inflation accelerated, and the latest PCE data may have significantly changed the outlook for interest rates. If your business is waiting for lower borrowing costs or trying to plan for the mon...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Economist Derek Stanely to discuss which US states are best positioned to weather the projected 2030 downturn. With workforce availability, population trends, fiscal health, and economic resilience varying widely across the country, where should businesses focus their growth and diversification efforts? Discover the...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the first Federal Reserve meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh and why the market may need to rethink expectations for interest rates. While rates remained unchanged, the Fed's messaging took a noticeably different tone. Lauren examines what Warsh's leadership style could mean for future policy decisions, inflation ma...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest housing market data and explains why housing activity remains under pressure despite signs that the decline is beginning to stabilize. With affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and existing home sales hovering near levels seen during the 2008-09 financial crisis, what does the outlook hold fo...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week packed with economic data, including a stronger-than-expected jobs report, elevated CPI and PPI inflation readings, and what they mean for the Federal Reserve's next move. As markets increasingly price out rate cuts, Lauren examines why the conversation may be shifting toward higher interest rates instead. She...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines the rapid growth of US data center construction and why the industry remains a key economic bright spot. While forecasts call for continued expansion through 2028, new challenges surrounding energy infrastructure, electricity costs, and proposed legislation could reshape the outlook. Will data center growth continue at...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down Trimmed Mean PCE, the inflation measure drawing increased attention from Federal Reserve policymakers. With inflation signals sending mixed messages, businesses and investors face a growing challenge: which data should they trust when assessing future interest rate decisions? Lauren explains how Trimmed Mean PCE work...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains why ITR Economics has upgraded its Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast for 2026 from 3.4% to 5.0%. Rising commodity costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply chain pressures are creating new challenges for businesses trying to protect margins and maintain profitability. How should companies adjust their pricing strate...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest GDP revision, persistent inflation pressures, and why expectations for future Fed policy may be shifting in a surprising direction. Many business leaders are waiting for lower interest rates before making major investment decisions. But what if that wait no longer makes sense? Lauren explores what the late...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain sits down with Lauren Saidel-Baker to discuss what a new Fed chair could mean for inflation, interest rates, and business strategy heading into 2030. With inflation remaining stubbornly high and bond markets signaling concern, should businesses rethink their borrowing and investment plans before rates move even higher? Could the...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the growing divide inside the Fed over the future direction of interest rates. While markets continue searching for clues about future rate cuts, new dissents from Fed officials reveal deeper concerns about persistent inflation and the path forward under incoming Fed Cha...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Economist and Consultant Speaker Derek Stanley to discuss how businesses should prepare for the economic realities of the 2030s. While growth opportunities remain strong over the next four years, relying on linear planning could leave companies exposed when conditions shift. In this episode, we break down the import...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and why April’s hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports are raising new concerns for businesses and policymakers alike. Lauren explains what persistent inflation means for margins, borrowing costs, and future Fed decisions as Kevin Warsh prepares to step into the Fed Chair role. Could the n...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain revisits the long-term 2030 economic outlook and explains why rising national debt remains one of the biggest risks facing the US economy. With debt levels climbing, interest payments surging, and demographic pressures building, what does this mean for businesses trying to plan ahead? Taylor breaks down the key drivers behind IT...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the growing divide inside the Federal Reserve as more officials begin raising concerns about persistent inflation and the future of rate cuts. Lauren explains why recent inflation pressures may be more structural than temporary, how Middle East conflict is impacting oil prices and supply chains, and what weakening co...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest 2025 population growth data and what it means for business strategy. As migration trends shift and previously declining states rebound, where should you be focusing your expansion efforts? Understanding where people are moving is critical in today’s tight labor market and evolving economic landscape. Are y...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and what it could mean for policy direction in the months ahead. With Jerome Powell stepping down as Chair but remaining on the Board, questions around influence and continuity are front and center. She also examines the latest GDP data, highlighting the growing ro...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the return of global supply chain pressure and what it means for businesses heading into 2026. As geopolitical tensions disrupt key trade routes and demand continues to grow, many companies risk being caught off guard by longer lead times and rising uncertainty. What does the latest data say about where supply chains...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest retail sales data and what it reveals about consumer resilience despite rising energy costs. With gasoline prices surging, many businesses are questioning whether demand can hold and how long margin pressure may persist. Lauren also examines growing political tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve, inclu...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by fellow Economist Tara Bayke to break down the growing risk of “profitless prosperity.” As the economy expands through 2026 and beyond, many businesses may see rising revenues but shrinking margins due to persistent cost pressures. From surging material and energy costs to labor challenges and AI investment, where sh...

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the growing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership and what it could mean for market stability. With questions around Chair Powell’s term, potential legal challenges, and political pressure, businesses are left wondering how much confidence they can place in the Fed’s independence. Lauren also highlights...

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down how AI is reshaping the labor market and why white-collar industries are seeing a different impact than blue-collar sectors. While many businesses are investing heavily in AI, layoffs and workforce shifts are not happening evenly across the economy. What does this mean for hiring, wages, and long-term workforce strat...